Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, November 08, 2005

Creigh Deeds Wins- NOT!

Creigh Deeds is down about 11,000 now, but with precincts in Richmond, Norfolk and Fairfax County's record absentee count still waiting to report, he looks to have been elected. Henrico still has some out, but they are mostly in Varina, a swing area that Bob McDonnell shouldn't win by a large margin.

I could be wrong on this, but thats my take from what is out there.

UPDATE: McDonnell had a damned impressive showing in Hanover to retake the lead. Creigh will end up about 2,000 short.

Bob McDonnell will be your next AG, machine recounts won't change anything at all.

90 Comments:

At 11:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

9% or so of Richmond city is still out

 
At 11:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Man I thought your early Kaine call was gutsy.

 
At 11:07 PM, Anonymous Hokieannie said...

Mark Warner is refusing to conceed on the AG race, calls for every vote to be fairly counted. Hmmm, the guy sounds positively presidential!

 
At 11:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Too much of Hanover is out...

 
At 11:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

+500 votes for Creigh from Henrico vs. sbe reporting

 
At 11:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Five very black precincts still out from Henrico.

 
At 11:58 PM, Blogger Matt Erwin said...

WaPo has Deeds losing by 9K with 100% reporting. Official site does not, color me confused.

 
At 11:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're jumping early on this one NLS. Petersburg and Richmond won't make up for lots of Hanover and some more Henrico. The only way CD wins is if large numbers of absentee ballots are still out and they break heavily his way.

 
At 12:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

When are Absentees counted in VA?

 
At 12:06 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

Wow, NLS, you may be right. Those are heavily D Richmond precincts (although turnout there is always iffy) and some D in Henrico. Still working on my analysis using margins from 2001 (G race - closest proxy). Thoughts?

 
At 12:06 AM, Blogger too conservative said...

Agreed. Deeds barely wins.

Recount?

 
At 12:10 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Si Pi, Deeds is a few percent behind warner in hanover, but richmond precincts had 100-150 more votes this year than in 01, and those are 90%ers. Add that absentees left and Creigh wins. Remember, rural more GOP counties do absentees different, they put them with the returns of the precinct they came from, and Fairfax County had a record number of absentees this year

Deeds wins.

 
At 12:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Margin is now 2294 with 50 to go (Plus Abentees possibly)

 
At 12:20 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

Henrico and Richmond are in. Deeds needs Fairfax absentees...

 
At 12:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Or a Recount, that's like 1.1/pct

 
At 12:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Outstanding votes in:

Spotsylvania - 2 precincts
Russell - 1 precinct
Richmond City - 1 precinct
Petersburg - 1 precinct
Hanover - 12 precincts
Henrico - 3 precincts
James City County - 2 precincts
Campbell County - 1 precinct

.12 percent separating Deeds and McDonnell right now.

 
At 12:26 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

Now just 0.08!

 
At 12:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

1435 votes

 
At 12:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes...but Deeds is ahead.

 
At 12:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're right 12:26!

I left out Fairfax from the outstanding numbers because the votes just came in but didn't recalculate the percent.

Right now Deeds is behind by less votes than the number of write-in votes across the state! Every vote really DOES count!

 
At 12:28 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

Deeds is up!

 
At 12:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Correction to my 12:28 comment. I should have said Deeds is AHEAD by less than the number of write-ins.

(It is way past my bedtime!)

 
At 12:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do we know the Democratic performance percentages in the areas which have to report in the AG race?

 
At 12:32 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

I don't see how Deeds can withstand Hanover... Comments?

 
At 12:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is the Democratic performance of the precincts in the remaining Hanover areas?

 
At 12:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

One in Cambell
Three in fairfax
12 in Hanover which is bad, because Mac is up 70/30
: Three in Henrico
: Two in James City
even
One in Loudon Even
one in Russell, we are up
one in Richmond

 
At 12:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So you have 23 Broken machines, potentially

 
At 12:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is a 1,435 vote difference with 23 voting districts left. That's an average of 62.39 net votes per precinct.

Unless these areas are super Republican, I don't see how Creigh can lose. But then again, it's 12:30 and I've been up since 4:15am

 
At 12:40 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

Deeds gets screwed by Hanover by 2,500+

 
At 12:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't know Hanover layout, but can say this:

Bush: 70%
Kerry: 30%

2001:
Earley: 61
Warner: 38

Katzen: 57
Kaine: 41

Kilgore: 71
McEachin: 23

These percents don't make the 12 outstanding precincts look good for Deeds.

And it's a populous district, so those 12 precincts hold a fair number of votes.

 
At 12:43 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

Cold Harbor alone went for Earley by NET 650. Total advantage for Earley in remaining precincts was 2,775....

 
At 12:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The one outstanding Henrico precinct Creigh has lost by 250

 
At 12:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Where did that figure come from? I just refreshed the sbe website and it still has Creigh +1435

 
At 12:48 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

he Petersburg precinct is worth about 800 the richmond one is worth about 350, on top of current margin

This will be soooo close, so I'll just stick with my prediction.

 
At 12:57 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

P'burg is only good for 500 net. Same for Richmond. Deeds gets maybe 100 from Russell. Loses 50 from Henrico absentee, 75 from Spotsy. (why is that precinct listed twice?)

 
At 1:00 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

spotsy is 2 congressionals, they count it seperate so you can see the #s by congressional

 
At 1:00 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Petersburg is good for much more than 500. 601 is the former 601 and 602.

 
At 1:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/elections/2005/va/#301625

this shows Deeds behind by about 8000 , doesnt look good, although its in the recount zone

 
At 1:06 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

My guess is that Creigh loses this by about 600 votes. That's about .03%.

 
At 1:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wash Post isnt accurate at all...says Deeds has 953k, right now on the state site he is ahead with 956k...Wash Post CANT get it faster than the state!

Hang in there

 
At 1:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Currently outstanding:

Campbell County - 1 precinct out: absentee (this county has gone heavily McDonnell)

Hanover - 12 precincts out - heavy McDonnell

Henrico - 3 out; 2 are absentee

James City County - 2 out - 1 absentee

Russell - 1 out - absentee; county went for Deeds but not by much

Spotsylvania - 2 out - Wilderness precincts; county went for McDonnell; results in on Gov & LG, but not AG

Petersburg - 1 out - city went heavy for Deeds

Richmond City - 1 out - city went heavy for Deeds

 
At 1:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

1327 With 21 to go

 
At 1:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

that same WP result aslo says "2392 of 2395 Precincts Reporting"

 
At 1:11 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

Spotsy's in. Creigh dropped by .01.

 
At 1:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ha! Check out the Hanover County LIVE election results. Zero percent of precincts reporting. Lame.

 
At 1:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pins and needles!!!

 
At 1:19 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

If Fairfax County had voted for Deeds the way it voted for Byrne (which was still less than Kaine) we wouldn't be here right now.

 
At 1:23 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

a bunch just came in for Governor...

 
At 1:24 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

Hanover is in for Governor

 
At 1:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hanover LG is in too. Should be AG any minute.

 
At 1:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

roughly 15.5k votes still out for hanover

Hanover will net McDonnell close to 6k

 
At 1:29 AM, Blogger PoliSciZac said...

Can you tell if the Kilgore/Bolling margins in the new Hanover precincts are the type that could flip the lead?

 
At 1:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mac up 3478

 
At 1:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The horrible thing about Hanover is that it has a large black population that is disenfranchised every election

They post police cars at the entrance and exit of the apartment communities, they put short certain areas on polling equipment

I used to work polls there, its a good old boy system...

 
At 1:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

mcdonnell up by .18

 
At 1:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

McDonnell now up by 3478

 
At 1:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I said 6k, sorry i meant 5.2k

Deeds is down 3.6 k

 
At 1:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow, a 3000 vote swing...there had better be a recount

 
At 1:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Deeds will net lose another 50-100 in Cambell Co.

Net lose close to 500 in Henrico

Net lose 100 in James City

Net win 30 in Russell

and New win 200-300 in Petersburg...

Nights over folks

 
At 1:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Come on Creigh...pull something out your hat with these last few districts

 
At 1:40 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Petersburg is worth almost 1,000 but it's not enough. I updated this post.

 
At 1:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Finally got you on one of these, NLS...

 
At 1:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So here's what we're left with:


Gains for McDonnell:
Campbell County - 1 precinct out: absentee


Gains for Deeds:
Russell - 1 out - absentee; county went for Deeds but not by much

Petersburg - 1 out - city went heavy for Deeds

Richmond City - 1 out - city went heavy for Deeds


I don't know:
Henrico - 3 out; 2 are absentee (county is fairly evenly split thus far; outstanding precinct went for Bush in '04 and Earley in '01)

James City County - 2 out - 1 absentee (county is fairly evenly split; outstanding precinct went for Earley in 2001)

 
At 2:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If recount is requested, Deeds will have a real potential to pick up some votes!

Numbers show that there is generally a significant ammount of error in US elections, ranging from 3% to 28% errors in precincts and districts.

Machines do yeild actually a HIGHER error rate than paper ballots, and those errors CAN be corrected through recount...and recounts typically favor the Dems for demographic reasons

Its still up in the air, till tommorow...or next week!

 
At 2:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As will my directly above post, deeds will end up closer to 4 or 4.3k short

Not sure recoun will swing that hight a number, Deeds will pick up 1-2.2 on recount, at close tommorrow AM will def be down 4k

Some of the precincts not in yet have gone home for the night, look for election "mysteries" because of that, not fraud, just stupid people...Any luck and it will swing Deeds way...

All in all, Deeds is lucky to have it this close. Polls had him blown out, and his advertising in areas like NOVA where could have easily picked up an extra 2-4k were lackluster at best.

Kaine ran well for his post, but the ticket ran weak, its a shame that so much energy was spent solely on Kaine and Byrne got burned by her sex and Deeds got burned by McDonnell's "I'm a friend of the 5-0, and i'll destroy our non-existant meth problem!" ads.

Bleah, poorly run ticket, well run govenor's campaign, can't win them all!

 
At 11:05 AM, Anonymous Hans Bader said...

Judging from the latest election returns, we're going to have endless recounts. It will be days before we know who won. Flip a coin and you'll have a half chance of being right.

McDonnell's margin has shrunk to 1,900 votes with at least 2,300 votes left uncounted. More importantly, a recount will shift at least 1,000 votes to the Democrats. (In the close Slade Gorton vs. Maria Cantwell and Christine Gregoire v. Dino Rossi races in Washington State, which has fewer voters than Virginia, recounts consistently swung more than 1,000 votes to the Democrats).

 
At 11:31 AM, Anonymous S Pi said...

When are provisional ballots counted? Could that skew the outcome one way or another (is the default to count them or are they only counted days later)?

 
At 11:36 AM, Anonymous Hans Bader said...

One of the three outstanding precincts is in Richmond, where Deeds could pick up several hundred votes.

The other two are in James City, where the vote is pretty evenly split.

So McDonnell's 1900 vote lead will probably shrink a bit further, even before the recount.

But how it ultimately will turn out after the recount is unclear.

Still, it was a fairly-good showing by McDonnell, given the low voter turnout in much of Hampton Roads and Bush's popularity being at a low ebb right now. McDonell ran a solid campaign.

 
At 12:06 PM, Anonymous Hans Bader said...

Oops. I mispoke earlier, when I said that a Washington State recount shifted 1,000 votes from Republican Slade Gorton to Democrat Maria Cantwell in a statewide election for U.S. Senate.

Actually, the recount in that particular election only shifted about 300 votes.

 
At 1:13 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Word is McDonnell is going to claim victory at 3 p.m. today in Richmond. Final vote margin is around 1,500.

 
At 6:14 PM, Anonymous Hans Bader said...

Yep, McDonnell wins.

The Virginian-Pilot quotes him as saying that the three precincts supposedly still outstanding -- including one in Richmond, a Democratic bastion -- are actually "ghost precincts."

No one is cited contradicting that observation, and the Richmond precinct that supposedly hasn't reported yet has the same precinct number as one that already has, providing support for McDonnell's ghost precinct observation.

So much for Deeds' prospects of getting several hundred votes out of Richmond.

So McDonnell still has a margin of 1500 votes to burn in a recount. Deeds may pick up 1000 votes in a recount, at the outside margin, but he won't get 1500.

Thus, McDonnell is the new Attorney General, although he will have to await the formalities of the recount process.

 
At 8:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My understanding is that it is a precinct which is split into two house of delegates districts, thus two numbers.

Perhaps when Richmond tabulated this year they reported them all in one lump. But last year, there were two separate entries and two separate totals for this particular district.

 
At 4:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

McDonnell's margin is now 960. I guess those weren't "ghost precincts" then. Dunno if the recount will change anything.

 
At 10:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

down to 904, they are finding more votes somewhere

 
At 9:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

getting close to where a recount could matter

 
At 4:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

actually now the vote difference is 619. Are these provisionals that are now being counted?

 
At 5:51 PM, Anonymous Hans Bader said...

Beats me. If the margin's down to 619, all bets are off.

A recount could swing 600 votes in Virginia. It did in other states with similar populations.

Deeds could be the next AG.

The media's not following it. I wonder why. I guess it's not too exciting for them -- neither candidate is controversial.

 
At 12:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's down to 513 votes. We're getting into washington state recount territory. NLS, recounts may indeed change the race.

 
At 7:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

410 votes...

 
At 7:29 PM, Anonymous Hans Bader said...

I think a recount would shift more than 410 votes to Deeds.

There's enough disorderly record-keeping in poorly-managed Democratic bastions like Richmond and Norfolk to lose 410 votes.

And even if there weren't, they might be able to "find" additional votes for Deeds anyway.

 
At 10:46 PM, Blogger thegools said...

The votes are coming from the careful correcting of mistakes made by election officials on election night, according to an election official commenting on the changes. Apparently, GOP and Dem reps are watching every move & every correction.

410 votes is mighty slim.

Strange...when the vote is first counted (in the rush of election night) it is GOP candidates to always get a benefit. (Maybe they are just lucky that way.) Then when votes are actually counted with bipartisan watchdogsa at every corner to garuntee fairness, the GOP votes drop a little.

 
At 11:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

McDonnell 970,935 49.96%
Deeds 970,225 49.94%

Now just a 410 vote difference.

If the trend continues on these ballots coming in, Deeds will, indeed, retake the lead. I'd guess they're likely either provisional ballots or additional absentees from Fairfax County.
Anybody know for sure approximately how many more ballots are out?

 
At 11:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

kirk, I have been thinking about that all day, especially as someone here and few other places said that these were just "corrections" of initial mistakes. I wonder if democratic areas may be more mistake-prone because they are in more densely populated areas and perhaps the workers are busier than in rural precincts, say. That's a non-conspiracy explanation, though it's hard not to think conspiracy when every "mistake" in every election I have been old enough to care about seems to benefit the republican.

 
At 8:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

if what is going on is "corrections" are Deeds currently gaining the benefits he would from a recount. Are these clerical errors that are being corrected or new votes being found? Basically, when its done will a recount change it even further?

 
At 1:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

below 400

 
At 5:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

357 votes...

 
At 5:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Check that: 347 now

 
At 10:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

only 322!

 
At 4:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I was wondering how my neighbour could save a fortune on her credit cards. Now I too have the secret.

 
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