Creigh Deeds Wins- NOT!
Creigh Deeds is down about 11,000 now, but with precincts in Richmond, Norfolk and Fairfax County's record absentee count still waiting to report, he looks to have been elected. Henrico still has some out, but they are mostly in Varina, a swing area that Bob McDonnell shouldn't win by a large margin.
I could be wrong on this, but thats my take from what is out there.
UPDATE: McDonnell had a damned impressive showing in Hanover to retake the lead. Creigh will end up about 2,000 short.
Bob McDonnell will be your next AG, machine recounts won't change anything at all.
90 Comments:
9% or so of Richmond city is still out
Man I thought your early Kaine call was gutsy.
Mark Warner is refusing to conceed on the AG race, calls for every vote to be fairly counted. Hmmm, the guy sounds positively presidential!
Too much of Hanover is out...
+500 votes for Creigh from Henrico vs. sbe reporting
Five very black precincts still out from Henrico.
WaPo has Deeds losing by 9K with 100% reporting. Official site does not, color me confused.
You're jumping early on this one NLS. Petersburg and Richmond won't make up for lots of Hanover and some more Henrico. The only way CD wins is if large numbers of absentee ballots are still out and they break heavily his way.
When are Absentees counted in VA?
Wow, NLS, you may be right. Those are heavily D Richmond precincts (although turnout there is always iffy) and some D in Henrico. Still working on my analysis using margins from 2001 (G race - closest proxy). Thoughts?
Agreed. Deeds barely wins.
Recount?
Si Pi, Deeds is a few percent behind warner in hanover, but richmond precincts had 100-150 more votes this year than in 01, and those are 90%ers. Add that absentees left and Creigh wins. Remember, rural more GOP counties do absentees different, they put them with the returns of the precinct they came from, and Fairfax County had a record number of absentees this year
Deeds wins.
The Margin is now 2294 with 50 to go (Plus Abentees possibly)
Henrico and Richmond are in. Deeds needs Fairfax absentees...
Or a Recount, that's like 1.1/pct
Outstanding votes in:
Spotsylvania - 2 precincts
Russell - 1 precinct
Richmond City - 1 precinct
Petersburg - 1 precinct
Hanover - 12 precincts
Henrico - 3 precincts
James City County - 2 precincts
Campbell County - 1 precinct
.12 percent separating Deeds and McDonnell right now.
Now just 0.08!
1435 votes
Yes...but Deeds is ahead.
You're right 12:26!
I left out Fairfax from the outstanding numbers because the votes just came in but didn't recalculate the percent.
Right now Deeds is behind by less votes than the number of write-in votes across the state! Every vote really DOES count!
Deeds is up!
Correction to my 12:28 comment. I should have said Deeds is AHEAD by less than the number of write-ins.
(It is way past my bedtime!)
Do we know the Democratic performance percentages in the areas which have to report in the AG race?
I don't see how Deeds can withstand Hanover... Comments?
What is the Democratic performance of the precincts in the remaining Hanover areas?
One in Cambell
Three in fairfax
12 in Hanover which is bad, because Mac is up 70/30
: Three in Henrico
: Two in James City
even
One in Loudon Even
one in Russell, we are up
one in Richmond
So you have 23 Broken machines, potentially
There is a 1,435 vote difference with 23 voting districts left. That's an average of 62.39 net votes per precinct.
Unless these areas are super Republican, I don't see how Creigh can lose. But then again, it's 12:30 and I've been up since 4:15am
Deeds gets screwed by Hanover by 2,500+
Don't know Hanover layout, but can say this:
Bush: 70%
Kerry: 30%
2001:
Earley: 61
Warner: 38
Katzen: 57
Kaine: 41
Kilgore: 71
McEachin: 23
These percents don't make the 12 outstanding precincts look good for Deeds.
And it's a populous district, so those 12 precincts hold a fair number of votes.
Cold Harbor alone went for Earley by NET 650. Total advantage for Earley in remaining precincts was 2,775....
The one outstanding Henrico precinct Creigh has lost by 250
Where did that figure come from? I just refreshed the sbe website and it still has Creigh +1435
he Petersburg precinct is worth about 800 the richmond one is worth about 350, on top of current margin
This will be soooo close, so I'll just stick with my prediction.
P'burg is only good for 500 net. Same for Richmond. Deeds gets maybe 100 from Russell. Loses 50 from Henrico absentee, 75 from Spotsy. (why is that precinct listed twice?)
spotsy is 2 congressionals, they count it seperate so you can see the #s by congressional
Petersburg is good for much more than 500. 601 is the former 601 and 602.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/elections/2005/va/#301625
this shows Deeds behind by about 8000 , doesnt look good, although its in the recount zone
My guess is that Creigh loses this by about 600 votes. That's about .03%.
Wash Post isnt accurate at all...says Deeds has 953k, right now on the state site he is ahead with 956k...Wash Post CANT get it faster than the state!
Hang in there
Currently outstanding:
Campbell County - 1 precinct out: absentee (this county has gone heavily McDonnell)
Hanover - 12 precincts out - heavy McDonnell
Henrico - 3 out; 2 are absentee
James City County - 2 out - 1 absentee
Russell - 1 out - absentee; county went for Deeds but not by much
Spotsylvania - 2 out - Wilderness precincts; county went for McDonnell; results in on Gov & LG, but not AG
Petersburg - 1 out - city went heavy for Deeds
Richmond City - 1 out - city went heavy for Deeds
1327 With 21 to go
that same WP result aslo says "2392 of 2395 Precincts Reporting"
Spotsy's in. Creigh dropped by .01.
Ha! Check out the Hanover County LIVE election results. Zero percent of precincts reporting. Lame.
Pins and needles!!!
If Fairfax County had voted for Deeds the way it voted for Byrne (which was still less than Kaine) we wouldn't be here right now.
a bunch just came in for Governor...
Hanover is in for Governor
Hanover LG is in too. Should be AG any minute.
roughly 15.5k votes still out for hanover
Hanover will net McDonnell close to 6k
Can you tell if the Kilgore/Bolling margins in the new Hanover precincts are the type that could flip the lead?
Mac up 3478
The horrible thing about Hanover is that it has a large black population that is disenfranchised every election
They post police cars at the entrance and exit of the apartment communities, they put short certain areas on polling equipment
I used to work polls there, its a good old boy system...
mcdonnell up by .18
McDonnell now up by 3478
I said 6k, sorry i meant 5.2k
Deeds is down 3.6 k
Wow, a 3000 vote swing...there had better be a recount
Deeds will net lose another 50-100 in Cambell Co.
Net lose close to 500 in Henrico
Net lose 100 in James City
Net win 30 in Russell
and New win 200-300 in Petersburg...
Nights over folks
Come on Creigh...pull something out your hat with these last few districts
Petersburg is worth almost 1,000 but it's not enough. I updated this post.
Finally got you on one of these, NLS...
So here's what we're left with:
Gains for McDonnell:
Campbell County - 1 precinct out: absentee
Gains for Deeds:
Russell - 1 out - absentee; county went for Deeds but not by much
Petersburg - 1 out - city went heavy for Deeds
Richmond City - 1 out - city went heavy for Deeds
I don't know:
Henrico - 3 out; 2 are absentee (county is fairly evenly split thus far; outstanding precinct went for Bush in '04 and Earley in '01)
James City County - 2 out - 1 absentee (county is fairly evenly split; outstanding precinct went for Earley in 2001)
If recount is requested, Deeds will have a real potential to pick up some votes!
Numbers show that there is generally a significant ammount of error in US elections, ranging from 3% to 28% errors in precincts and districts.
Machines do yeild actually a HIGHER error rate than paper ballots, and those errors CAN be corrected through recount...and recounts typically favor the Dems for demographic reasons
Its still up in the air, till tommorow...or next week!
As will my directly above post, deeds will end up closer to 4 or 4.3k short
Not sure recoun will swing that hight a number, Deeds will pick up 1-2.2 on recount, at close tommorrow AM will def be down 4k
Some of the precincts not in yet have gone home for the night, look for election "mysteries" because of that, not fraud, just stupid people...Any luck and it will swing Deeds way...
All in all, Deeds is lucky to have it this close. Polls had him blown out, and his advertising in areas like NOVA where could have easily picked up an extra 2-4k were lackluster at best.
Kaine ran well for his post, but the ticket ran weak, its a shame that so much energy was spent solely on Kaine and Byrne got burned by her sex and Deeds got burned by McDonnell's "I'm a friend of the 5-0, and i'll destroy our non-existant meth problem!" ads.
Bleah, poorly run ticket, well run govenor's campaign, can't win them all!
Judging from the latest election returns, we're going to have endless recounts. It will be days before we know who won. Flip a coin and you'll have a half chance of being right.
McDonnell's margin has shrunk to 1,900 votes with at least 2,300 votes left uncounted. More importantly, a recount will shift at least 1,000 votes to the Democrats. (In the close Slade Gorton vs. Maria Cantwell and Christine Gregoire v. Dino Rossi races in Washington State, which has fewer voters than Virginia, recounts consistently swung more than 1,000 votes to the Democrats).
When are provisional ballots counted? Could that skew the outcome one way or another (is the default to count them or are they only counted days later)?
One of the three outstanding precincts is in Richmond, where Deeds could pick up several hundred votes.
The other two are in James City, where the vote is pretty evenly split.
So McDonnell's 1900 vote lead will probably shrink a bit further, even before the recount.
But how it ultimately will turn out after the recount is unclear.
Still, it was a fairly-good showing by McDonnell, given the low voter turnout in much of Hampton Roads and Bush's popularity being at a low ebb right now. McDonell ran a solid campaign.
Oops. I mispoke earlier, when I said that a Washington State recount shifted 1,000 votes from Republican Slade Gorton to Democrat Maria Cantwell in a statewide election for U.S. Senate.
Actually, the recount in that particular election only shifted about 300 votes.
Word is McDonnell is going to claim victory at 3 p.m. today in Richmond. Final vote margin is around 1,500.
Yep, McDonnell wins.
The Virginian-Pilot quotes him as saying that the three precincts supposedly still outstanding -- including one in Richmond, a Democratic bastion -- are actually "ghost precincts."
No one is cited contradicting that observation, and the Richmond precinct that supposedly hasn't reported yet has the same precinct number as one that already has, providing support for McDonnell's ghost precinct observation.
So much for Deeds' prospects of getting several hundred votes out of Richmond.
So McDonnell still has a margin of 1500 votes to burn in a recount. Deeds may pick up 1000 votes in a recount, at the outside margin, but he won't get 1500.
Thus, McDonnell is the new Attorney General, although he will have to await the formalities of the recount process.
My understanding is that it is a precinct which is split into two house of delegates districts, thus two numbers.
Perhaps when Richmond tabulated this year they reported them all in one lump. But last year, there were two separate entries and two separate totals for this particular district.
McDonnell's margin is now 960. I guess those weren't "ghost precincts" then. Dunno if the recount will change anything.
down to 904, they are finding more votes somewhere
getting close to where a recount could matter
actually now the vote difference is 619. Are these provisionals that are now being counted?
Beats me. If the margin's down to 619, all bets are off.
A recount could swing 600 votes in Virginia. It did in other states with similar populations.
Deeds could be the next AG.
The media's not following it. I wonder why. I guess it's not too exciting for them -- neither candidate is controversial.
It's down to 513 votes. We're getting into washington state recount territory. NLS, recounts may indeed change the race.
410 votes...
I think a recount would shift more than 410 votes to Deeds.
There's enough disorderly record-keeping in poorly-managed Democratic bastions like Richmond and Norfolk to lose 410 votes.
And even if there weren't, they might be able to "find" additional votes for Deeds anyway.
The votes are coming from the careful correcting of mistakes made by election officials on election night, according to an election official commenting on the changes. Apparently, GOP and Dem reps are watching every move & every correction.
410 votes is mighty slim.
Strange...when the vote is first counted (in the rush of election night) it is GOP candidates to always get a benefit. (Maybe they are just lucky that way.) Then when votes are actually counted with bipartisan watchdogsa at every corner to garuntee fairness, the GOP votes drop a little.
McDonnell 970,935 49.96%
Deeds 970,225 49.94%
Now just a 410 vote difference.
If the trend continues on these ballots coming in, Deeds will, indeed, retake the lead. I'd guess they're likely either provisional ballots or additional absentees from Fairfax County.
Anybody know for sure approximately how many more ballots are out?
kirk, I have been thinking about that all day, especially as someone here and few other places said that these were just "corrections" of initial mistakes. I wonder if democratic areas may be more mistake-prone because they are in more densely populated areas and perhaps the workers are busier than in rural precincts, say. That's a non-conspiracy explanation, though it's hard not to think conspiracy when every "mistake" in every election I have been old enough to care about seems to benefit the republican.
if what is going on is "corrections" are Deeds currently gaining the benefits he would from a recount. Are these clerical errors that are being corrected or new votes being found? Basically, when its done will a recount change it even further?
below 400
357 votes...
Check that: 347 now
only 322!
I was wondering how my neighbour could save a fortune on her credit cards. Now I too have the secret.
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