Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Monday, July 18, 2005

Uncalled Races- Not on the Dirty Dozen

Here's a money update for our uncalled races that didn't make the "Dirty Dozen" list of the top 12 battles.

9th District
Outlook: Likely Republican

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

DUDLEY---------- $9,497 -------------------$101,005-------------$94,001
FERGUSON
------$29,151------------------$62,743----------------$47,024

Challenger Eric Ferguson cuts down on Allen Dudley's financial advantage in June. Both candidates have been very tight with spending so far. Dudley still has a big advantage here, but Ferguson is making the right moves to keep this race on the "uncalled" list.

32nd District
Outlook: Likely Republican

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

BLACK-----------$14,700----------------$305,920----------------$216,703
POISSON---------$20,758---------------$108,660------------------$61,058

Challenger David Poisson wins June but does not even dent Dick Black's financial advantage.

51st District
Outlook: Likely Republican

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

MCQUIGG--------$8,750-----------------$86,751-------------------$55,970
PORTA-----------$11,436----------------$67,552--------------------$46,088

Porta continues to stay close in fundraising to the popular McQuigg. Porta needs two things to make this a race. First, big turnout, the bigger the turnout the more Democratic this district becomes. Second, he needs to figure out what Republicans he can get to cross over against McQuigg. Libertarian Republicans may be the key for Porta to make this a race.

64th District
Outlook: Likely Democratic

Still waiting to see both reports.

68th District
Outlook: Likely Republican

Still waiting to see both reports.


84th District
Outlook: Likely Republican

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

IAQUINTO -------$18,868---------------$103,579------------------$72,807
CHRISTOPHER---$25,043--------------$100,127------------------$56,001

In this open seat race for Bob McDonnell's Delegate seat Democrat Christopher is hanging in there with money. But with McDonnell on the ballot, and this district's GOP leanings Iaquinto has a lot of advantages.

99th District
Outlook: Likely Republican (Pickup)

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

CRANDELL------$4,289----------------$9,808---------------------$5,096
WITTMAN------$11,762--------------$46,905------------------$36,729

In the race for Albert Pollard's Delegate seat the Republicans seem to be cruising to a pickup. Crandell's best shot may be them falling asleep.

29 Comments:

At 4:31 PM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said...

Sorry... grammatical errors...

Call Wittman - the 99th will go Republican. Good guy with the right kind of broad-based support.

Black and McQuigg are leaning GOP, with Black's district trending towards safe. Black is a favorite among conservatives and can raise the cash when he has to. DPVA will more than likely focus elsewhere. Not a sign that Republicans are or should get complacent in any of these three races, but these aren't exactly races on the knife's edge.

 
At 6:17 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Agreed on Wittman. We are leaving it on the board so people remember this one- since it means the Democrats start out minus 1 before anything else is decided.

 
At 11:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iaquinto has no support outside of the party hacks. His fundraising advantage comes from $14k he gave himself; other elected Republicans who endorsed him, and PACs. If endorsements meant winning elections then Howard Dean would be President.

 
At 11:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Word is Ferguson has Mudcat Sanders working for him. That could take the 60k right there.

Dudley hired Preston Bryant's campaign manager. Both are serious about his race.

 
At 9:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would hardly compare "Mudcat" Saunders to a kid who managed a Republican primary race.

The Register Bee has a great article on this race today http://www.registerbee.com/servlet/Satellite?pagename=DRB/MGArticle/DRB_BasicArticle&c=MGArticle&cid=1031783922952

 
At 9:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

McQuigg's district isn't as safe as people think: the DC market has grown southward, making it much more competitive. Worse, she's not as competitive as people think. Rumor is that she wants to run for County Clerk soon and her heart isn't in the race.

 
At 10:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ANON 9:06

That "kid" has a hell of a good record in Virginia. In addition to Bryant, he ran succesfiul campaigns for Melanie Rapp, Tom Bolvin (no, not the one he lost), and wss a big player in the 2001 nominating campaign for Jay Katzen that forced Randy Forbes out of the race and run for Congress instead.

And, besides spending a boatload of Warner's money on a bluegrass band, has Sanders EVER been involved in a meaningful way in any succesfull race?

 
At 10:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Porta is good in front of a crowd and is building some grassroots support in the district. McQuigg doesn't seem up for it this time around, this race could become interesting as Porta continues to gain speed.

 
At 11:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would say that helping Mark Warner carry many areas of SW Virginia is pretty meaningful.

Meaningful enough to have an inauguration that is.

When you consider that none of the races mentioned in the last post are in region of the Ninth, Dudley's kid (not the one he tried to make a judge, but the one running his campaign) is a fish out of water.

Bubba and Lucille ain't from NOVA. You gotta know them to get their vote.

 
At 12:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wittman's made a lot of enemies in his home county. Crandell may be behind in fundraising but beats him on the ground. It will be close but Crandell wins by 2%

 
At 12:14 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Huh? Crandell couldn't get 50% in the small town she lives in when she ran and lost for Mayor. Please back that up anonymous.

 
At 3:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

She was the victim of a smear campaign by the owners of an off track betting parlor who'd lost their place in the hurricane. The gentleman was dying and basically told anybody who'd listen that she was against the rebuilding of the place. It was a lie, but it worked. As far as this campaign goes, which is what YOU should be discussing, she is making incredible strides, has grassroots support, and will win this election.

 
At 3:25 PM, Anonymous Doug Dodson said...

Ben, please stop trashing our candidates as you were one of them at one time. This caucus did not take sides in your race so you shouldn't be trashing us now. For a real blog with information, check out:

http://www.documenting-democracy.org/

 
At 3:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not Larry,
The past two Delegates in the 99th have been Dems. How do you back that up?

 
At 4:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Crandell can't win, why don't you go ahead and call the race now? Hmmm, could it be that the two prior Delegates were Democrats - Albert Pollard and Secretary of Natural Resources Tayloe Murphey?

 
At 5:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Regarding the 99th, there's a couple of factors that make this a GOP pickup guys:

1. Pollard's campaign was a fluke "perfect storm" event. He's an activist who rode the wave, and personally I believe his reasons to bow out for family/professional concerns. It's tough being a delegate and balancing family and professional career. Best of luck - he'll be back.

2. Wittman is a KG county supervisor.

3. Wittman has the support of Caroline Republicans.

4. Wittman was practically recruited by Speaker Howell to run.

5. Desipite this, conservatives are still supporting him thanks to his signature on the "no-tax pledge". :)

6. Wittman is a likeable guy, smooth talker, and a very confident candidate.

As for his opposition, without Pollard, I'm not so sure they have the candidate to even come close. Wittman is going to roll the 99th up rather nicely. No blowout, but it'll be a pick-up.

 
At 8:26 PM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said...

anon 5:06

Well said. I couldn't have touched on all the points better myself.

I haven't met the opposition, but I have met Wittman. Great guy.

 
At 9:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wittman's going to win, but anonymous was dead wrong on the first point of his six point analysis of the 1999 99th race.

Albert Pollard was the strongest candidate the D's had that year. Actually the best one they've had in many years. He ran on a generally non-partisan, good government platform. He was everywhere in the district, raised a potload of money for '99, had some great pictures and mail. He was also the first candidate from that far out to use Richmond tv to reach just a section of his district. But all that made together not a "perfect storm" but a great campaign.

The R's ran perennial Northen Neck candidate Henry Lane Hull, a candidate only a mortician could love. Over the years he had found a way to offend the moderates in his campaigns against Murphy and the conservatives in his primary race against Barlow from King George. He ran a lousy campaign, had a knucklehead for a manager, and after doing radio for July and August and rising in the polls, decided to go black until well after Labor Day EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE WERE READY TO PAY THE BILL FOR THE ADS FOR HIM. He literally looked a gift horse in the mouth and told them no.

So don't be so quick to discount Pollard. he is a smart guy and will probably win whatever he runs for next.

 
At 9:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wittman is on the Board of Suprevisors in Westmoreland, not King George. A respectable guy who will do a good job. Wittman will make a great replacement for John Chichester in 2 years.

 
At 9:36 PM, Anonymous Rural Not Stupid said...

Shaun- I'm glad you like Wittman now, because I'm sure you will be amongst the first to whine when he isnt conservative enough for you.

 
At 10:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Of course in the 9th, it comes down to one thing....Ferguson cannot make a compelling reason to get rid of Dudley....finis..end of story...qed

 
At 10:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is a compelling reason to get rid of dudley...several of them.
He has taken in excess of 150,000 for an office he never opened.

He voted against back to school tax cuts

He voted against pay raises for State Troopers.

He voted against VA Works.

He tried to intimidate his fellow republicans into making his son a judge.

He voted himself a pay raise and left town without doing his work.

He is ineffective.

He is lazy.

Dudley needs to go.

 
At 8:22 AM, Anonymous Virginia Dudley said...

Peter--

What are you doing anonymously blogging about yourself at 10:11 am? I told you to get those signs down to Penhook.

 
At 11:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Amen, Rural not Stupid!
Mr. Kenney will be moving to the 99th to challenge Wittman in a primary two years from now, should Rob win!!

 
At 2:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wow. Shaun's got quite a legion of fearful liberals following him around.

Heh! Keep up the fire!

 
At 3:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

God Bless Bobby Orrock

 
At 3:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

He'll need it when Kenney pummels him in 2007!

 
At 4:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wittman as Chichester's replacement? That's a new one.

Chichester's replacement (if he doesn't run in 2007, and that's still up in the air) will more than likely come from Stafford County, not the Northern Neck.

However, Albert Pollard might be one heck of a Democratic candidate for 2007 if he wants it. I'll still debate on whether or not it was a perfect storm, but Pollard has certainly proved himself during his tenure. Either Pollard or Gary Pash in Stafford. For the GOP, either Gibbons, Van Hoy, or Osborn.

As for Kenney/Orrock, I love watching the liberals fall over themselves to dogpile on Kenney. For this guy to take on an incumbent and Democratic crossover and still walk away 380 votes shy is one hell of a fight. Kenney walked away the winner in terms of grassroots support, but I don't think he's chomping at the bit for another run. Will there be a rematch? Knowing both of these guys, I think people underestimate both Orrock and Kenney's character, and both of them are reasonably well liked. Survey says no, though it could get interesting if Orrock makes a play for Bolling's seat after the November elections, though McDougle should have this wrapped up.

Cole/Feldbush is a cakewalk. If there's one person liberals in the Fredericksburg area dislike more than Shaun Kenney or Steven Apicella (Stafford's GOP chair), it's Mark Cole. Which of course makes conservatives all the more happier to vote for him.

Not much else to report on in central VA.

 
At 1:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Republicans for Pollard, State Senate in 2007!!!

 

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