Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!
posted by Not Larry Sabato @ 3:00 PM
Happy 4th of July!Without today, I suppose this would be the "Virginia House of Burgesses 2005 Elections" blog.
Why didn't Tom Davis show up to march with Dave Albo? Is it because the rumors of Albo running against Davis in 06 have reached the Davis machine?
The Davis machine has had some good results lately...people are getting pretty sick of the Davis RINO machine
Hmmm...I'll let the last two club for growth wacko posters debate amongst themselves....On another note, does anyone know how Kaine and Kilgore fared in the various parades today?
Kaine kept itching his crotch, does he have worms?
Kaine appeared early in the 10am Dale City parade.Kilgore was at the end of the Dale City parade (having come from Fairfax). He was joined by Davis, Bolling & McDonnell - the latter two with their own contingents. Davis' opponent in '04- Ken L. apparently was not discouraged by his loss in '04 and was out there riding in a car w/ his "Democrat for Congress" sign.
Jerry Kilgore and the entire Republican ticket (Bolling, McDonnell, and Mason) had a GREAT turnout of supporters in Fairfax City's parade. Chris Craddock, Jim Hyland, and Ken Cucinelli were also there.BTW, there were orange and blue Kilgore balloons everywhere--lining every part of the parade route.A good parade today--both for politicians and others. FFC is something special.
Chris Craddock is INSANE.
Candidates need to be held accountable. Blogging is not enough. The media has done a pretty poor job of reporting on the HOD races thus far. We should encourage them to at least provide some coverage.
I was at a parade in Lorton and I saw that Werkheiser had alot more people marching for him than Albo. Maybe Albo was too focused on all the new DUI/DWI clients he will get thanks to it being a three-day weekend and a major holiday, but he definetly did not bring his A game to the Lorton parade. So I must say Werkheiser won that parade.
Yup. werkheiser had around 100 people in his contingent. Albo had about 15.
How many people Werkheiser or Albo had at the parade doesn't mean more or less votes in November. Saying Werkheiser won a parade is nonsense.
Last anon: You're right, elections have nothing to do with voter contact. It's all about how many drunk drivers you successfully defend!
Anon 12:57,You seem to be saying the parade was meaningless, which I disagree with. Maybe the parade will not directly turn into votes in November, but would you want to be the candidate who turned out fewer supporters than your opponent? Apparently Dave Albo doesn't, because he seemed to have a really pissed off look on his face about what had happened at the parade.
The look on Albo's face would have not gone away with more marchers. It would have taken Prep H.
I'm not arguing that it looks better to have more supporters behind you at a parade, but that is not what wins elections. Targeted grassroots strategies win elections. While it would have been great for Albo to have more supporters marching with him--he is knocking on tons of doors getting his message out. That means a whole lot more than a parade.
3:52 anon: What makes you think Werkheiser isn't knocking on doors? It's quite possible that if he's able to mobilize 100 people for a parade without much effort, then he's able to mobilize tons of people to knock doors. I'm not in any position to tell you, but it stands to reason.What is Albo's message? "I defend drunk drivers then write the laws on drunk driving?" That's quite a message. You should get a blowhorn and shout it from the rooftops.
No arguement that meeting people at the doors is much much better than parades. But when you have a joint appearance, one of the few that is covered by the media, it does not hurt things to have more people with you. I think we actually agree, the parade is a small thing that will only help Greg Werkheiser if he can get those same folks out knocking on doors for him.
Hmmm ...Interesting information on VPAP.ORG.According to the most recent fundraising results, Mr. Werkheiser's initial fundraising advantage seems to have evaporated.2005 General Election Candidate Albo, David B: $221,802 (Raised) $175,396; (On Hand)Werkheiser, Gregory: $210,861 (Raised); $102,451 (On Hand)Recall several months ago people were pointing at Werkheiser's fundraising lead as a sign that he was winning the raise.Also noteworthy from VPAP.ORG is a look at the donors. Predictions that "moderate Republicans" would be supporting Werkheiser seem to have been fabricated. In fact, the opposite seems to be occuring, with moderate groups like the Virginia Trial Lawyers supporting Mr. Albo.Oddly enough, the Werkforce doesn't seem interested in the money game any longer.
Werkheiser is a fool to think he could ever out raise an incumbent who is that tied to Tom Davis. He tried to make alot of hay out of his early fundraising and now it coming back to bite him in the ass. But the question for Werkheiser is how does he spend his money and will he be able motivate people to go door to door for him (that is the only way he can win the race)?
Fundraising numbers are even worse than that ...If you just look at the amounts they raised that quarter:Werkheiser: $46,851Albo: $142,942You would expect a challenger to raise more money during the second quarter, as his or her name recognition builds. Werkheiser appears to be topping off, indicating that his well is drying early.I won't say that this is doom, but it has to be making people nervous.And, Werkheiser also appears to be spending most of his money on staff. On one hand that creates a loyal contigent who will do whatever you tell them to. On the other, it means he has less money to spend for other outreach. I can go either way on how he is spending his money. He just needs more!
Give me a break. Werkheiser has outraised every challenger in the state. What else is he supposed to do?Notice Jim Ukrop strongly supporting Werkheiser? Notice that Warner gave more to Werkheiser than any other challenger? Notice shear number of individual donors?Of course Albo can raise PAC money. He's an incumbent.I wouldn't bring up money, if I were you. Dave Albo defends drunk drivers for a living, as we all know. And yet, he took $40k from the alcohol industry last month. LAST MONTH.
i'm bob hull, bitch:Tom Davis has a pretty impressive record lately! His machine did a pretty good job nominating Lt. Governor candidate Connaughton.Davis needs to focus on what he does best: dragging people in a vegetative state before congressional committees and interfering in local zoning decisions.Oh and cheating on his wife.
yeah - why does Tom Davis feel the need to interfere with local government? Isn't that an abuse of power?
And if Mr. Werkheiser were running against any challenger in the state of Virginia, you may have a point.The fact of the matter is that he is not: he is running against an incumbant who now how more money than he.The fact of the matter is that Werkheiser tried to establish he had appeal in his district by claiming he had a major fundraising advantage. HIS ARGUEMENT in HIS PRESS BRIEF. He lost that advantage.The fact of the matter is that people from his campaign also claimed that he would get cross party support. That hasn't materialized.Now Werkheiser is claiming : "Ignore my old arguments. At least people from my party are still supporting me." Sheesh.The point is, Werkheiser never should have went there in the first place.
To the last poster:Whahuh? You didn't answer my question. What is Werkheiser supposed to do? $46k in a quarter (or whatever it was) is a pretty solid number for a challenger. Challengers don't win by outraising the opponents. They win by working hard. It looks like both of these guys will have plenty of money to ge their message out.The point is that Werkheiser didn't take this race lightly - he raise lots of money early. I'm not sure what your point is, other than continue to raise Albo's fundraising....which involved $40k from the alcohol industry...
That 46k shows his momentum is faltering. His name recognition is supposedly up, yet his fundraising is down. More to the point, his opponent outraises him by nearly 3-1.What is Werkheiser supposed to do? Hmm ... let's see.For starters, not create phantom issues -- particularly those he could not win. Trying to make an issue of outraising someone that in the long run he couldn't and making false claims of cross party support fall under that category. Those are "bush league mistakes" and make him look bad.A similiar issue is his attacks on laws that penalize drunk drivers. "Dave Albo wants to increase penalties against drunk drivers." As opposed to Werkheiser. What does he want to do, make it easier on them?!Next, he should stop hemorraging cash. His 7-1 advantage has now revealed itself at a time when he is pulling in less. If the third quarter results look like that, stick a fork in him, he is probably dead.He could also do things like actually articulate a full agenda as opposed to trying to attack his opponent. For example, he could finally pay attention to his website. I was really impressed with his "blue-print for change." Oh wait! Despite it being promised for 4 months, he still doesn't have one!No agenda + bad cash management + slowing momentum = trouble.
I'm not sure what you guys are talking about, but last time I checked, Albo defends drunk drivers.Slowing momentum? Do you really believe that? Raising $46k in what? a month and a half? Right.
I'm really impressed with the dozens of mispellings on Albo's website/literature.
Davis is still strong in NoVa. What did Connaughton do in this region? 60+%? In Albo's district?Remember that the vast majority of the electorate hasn't even begun to focus on the election (and won't until after Labor Day). You dorks are clearly the exception. You should temper your enthusiasm just a bit and get some perspective.You should have learned something from the Republican primaries: It is a real challenge to unseat an incumbent, even if the challenger is well financed. (I may not like that fact, but it is cold, hard truth.) It is even harder to unseat an incumbent who works his ass off and historically appeals to the middle.I'm not a huge Dave Albo fan, but you guys expose yourselves as the noobs you are when you get giddy as school girls about a single parade and keep harping on the alcohol $ issue, neither of which will have any real traction in November.
One thing Davis is good at is raising money, which is what I meant with my comment about trying to outraise and incumbent connected to Davis. Although, I do agree that he is not good at Virginia politics. I think now is gut check time for Werkheiser. He raised alot of money at first, but now he needs to focus on getting his message out and maybe shaking up his campaign team. If he does not do that soon he will be in trouble. Of course the fact that Kilgore is going to whip Kaine is going to make it harder for challengers who are running against incumbent Republicans.
bob hull:You think Kilgore is going to whoop Kaine in the 42nd?
Ummmm yes, we all know how difficult it is to unseat an incumbent. It's almost like you'd need a huge volunteer advantage...Of course, I didn't see anything like that at the Lorton parade.
one parade, you dolt. getting people to walk in a july 4th parade is infinitely easier than getting them to walk door-to-door. there is no correlation.werkheiser may be your golden boy, but he will get werked in november.
Yes, I think Kilgore will narrowly beat Kaine there. Here is why, Kilgore has a message, a party that is excited about his campaign, and he is not seen as waffling on issues like abortion and the death penalty. Kaine has none of those. And I say this as a Democrat.
i'm pretty sure that voters don't care whether albo defends drunk drivers who kill children then takes $40k from the alcohol industry and writes the drunk driving bills. you're right, that issue doesn't have any traction. i've never spoken to anyone in virgnia who cares about such things. most people shoe me away when i bring it up.
Dave Albo's record makes him the most corrupt legislator in Virginia. And the worst part (as evidenced by the posters on here) is that he doesn't even seem to care. He knows he can get away with writing bills that bring money into his law firm. He doesn't care what anyone thinks. What arrogance.
Yes, you two anonymous posters are the only political geniuses in the Commonwealth who think that issue has traction. Oh, and your boss Werkheiser. If the issue had traction, people outside of nerd blog addicts would be talking about it, given that you have posted the same point over and over and over and over for months. But they aren't. Only you are. That means the issue doesn't have any traction. Too difficult for the werkforce to understand?
More arrogance. "It doesn't matter what I do! The voters will never find out."
Hmmmm. I seem to remember the VA club for growth accusing Albo of a conflict of interest.
Idiot. Issues don't get "traction" in HoD races. The issue discussion takes place voter to voter, door to door. What do you expect, a New York Times story on this?
"Dave Albo proposed legislation that would stiffen penalities on drunk drivers. I would never do this on my watch."I can see the slogan now:Greg Werkheiser: making Virginia safe for drunk drivers.
Et tu brute? Yes, door-to-door is the key. Albo has done at least 10 times the door-to-door work Werkheiser has done. Thanks for proving that point.Yes, the VA Club for Growth article really made waves. Everyone in the 42nd is talking about it.Yes, there is no concept of "traction" in HOD races.You guys really know your stuff. You are true political geniuses who will lead young Werkheiser to victory. Please, please stay on the alcohol/DWI message--you will certainly win with it.
If it is true that Albo is doing more door to door than Werkheiser than it is lights out for Werkheiser.
Ha. That's not even close to true.
I'm trying to understand - how are you tough on drunk drivers if you defend them in court? Don't quite get it.
I, for one, am incredibly impressed that Dave Albo writes loopholes into drunk driving laws then exploits them for his clients.He's such an honorable man.
Dave Albo recently came out and said he is no longer concerned with using drunk drivers to line his pockets. He wants to spend more of his time bashing immigrants and nailing Jean Marie DeVolites. What a great guy.
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