Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, July 01, 2005

75th District

Old Outlook: Safe Democratic
New Outlook: Leans Democratic

Thank You to new blogger Not Virgil Goode who told us about this yesterday and then backed it up in an email to me last night. We don't know how to attach a PDF to this site or we would happy to share with all of you.

This Safe Democratic Seat is in serious trouble.

We had called this Safe Democratic to the winner of the June 14th primary. But on primary night we held back on calling it to the winner Roslyn Tyler. Something was brewing here.

Tyler raised only $6,000 in her winning primary campaign and will need more to appeal to a "broader base" in November.

Also from this article we got from "Not Virgil", outgoing Democratic Delegate Paul Councill basically encouraged people to cross over in November to oppose Tyler.

We also need to see more about GOP nominee Carson Saunders.

In polite company in Virginia you can't mention the real reason there is tension here. It's race. We're working on another column for later today or this weekend going into the politics of race in Virginia and how that is impacting the elections.

We are sure this article will upset some people since this isn't supposed to be discussed. Too bad. It's time to address the issue that has the biggest impact across the state in almost every election.

28 Comments:

At 9:14 AM, Anonymous Republican said...

Race is not an issue in any way shape or form. In fact, it's mostly white people and Christians that are persecuted lately.

 
At 9:32 AM, Blogger Pastor John said...

You are correct.

 
At 9:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pastor John!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 
At 9:45 AM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

Race is an issue. Here you have a majority AA district. That majority AA district has supported the white incumbent for over 30 years. He retires. Then he cannot even have the common decency to support the winner who is AA. You can bet if it had been his son or Flowers he would be urging Dems to close ranks and move forward.

NLS as far as the ratings are concerned I think you have to look at history. I can't think of a single time when there was an AA candidate running for an open seat in a majority AA distirct that the AA candidate loss. It just has never happened.

 
At 9:56 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'll look over census information today. NPG, I don't think it is majority African American.

 
At 10:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wait, I'm confused. Which one is the AA candidate? The dem or the republican?

 
At 10:52 AM, Blogger Not Mark Rozell said...

Far be it from me to criticize, but I've seen no evidence yet to make this a racial issue. Familial, maybe (since Tyler beat Councill's son for the Dem nomination). But where is the racial issue? Just because she is African American does not mean Councill's failure to support her is racially motivated.

I hope you'll be able to back this one up.

PS - Her GOP opponent has raised no money - literally. You didn't point that out.

 
At 11:06 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

The GOP candidate had raised no money because he wasn't a candidate before June 1st.

I'm getting the racial issue from the Tidewater News article that Not Virgil sent me.

We'll comment more later on this.

Developing...

 
At 11:14 AM, Blogger Not Mark Rozell said...

It would be great to see the article - Tidewater News does not have online circulation so I can't find the article. I don't know how to put a PDF file on Blogger either, so I can't help you with that one. :)

 
At 12:43 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

NLS-According to the Almanacof Virginia Politics 2000 edition (which admitedly was based on the 1990 Census) the 75th was 57% AA. Republicans controlled the redistricting process in 2000. They made every AA district more AA in order to pack as many Ds together as possible. I would not be surprised if the 75th is > 57% African American.

 
At 12:49 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

The only reason I don't believe that (and I promise to find out for sure today) was Kerry only got 57% there. That sounds closer to a 40-45% AA district to me.

 
At 3:13 PM, Blogger Not Virgil Goode said...

The 75th is majority black 57%. However, there are 6 prisons in the district with many many inmates. A majority of those are African American and they count in census figures. Turnout in the black community is much lower than among whites and so elections can be close there. The area is deep southshide and race is THE issue in politcs. Just go down there and you will see. The towns are segregated, and the schools still are to an extent. There are 4 private schools in the district that are amost entirely white. It is sad but, you just can't ignore that race is an issue in politics and will contine to be in the rural south. Tyler is going to be in trouble especially if the pending Federal indictments are handed down on her husband. Also, sources have indicated that the Republicans are doing their own investigation on the Tyler dealings and they ARE targeting the 75th.

 
At 4:00 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Not Virgil, thank you for doing that research. That explains how the district is majority black and how the Dem numbers are not higher.

This is going to get very interesting.

 
At 4:01 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

NVG-is correct. However, I say nothing short of an inditement is going to stop Tyler. The problem is, the indictment may be coming. my sources say it will be as to her husband. That may be enough to swamp her. There is already some talk in Demo circles that if the indictment comes she should step aside.

 
At 5:10 PM, Blogger Not Hillary Clinton said...

The voters of the 75th District deserve better representation than Rosalyn Tyler. They deserve someone who will fight for their rights and a better life for Southside. I feel Tyler will not be that kind of Delegate. I find it funny that during the process of campaigning that eventually would lead to Tyler to have the ability to write laws for Virginia she was breaking many campaign laws in Virginia. Transportation of voters, campaign finance reports and bribing voters are just a few laws that have been violated. There will be no protection of hunter rights in the district, there will be no fighting for better public education and no economic stability that is a dire need for the people of Southside. Tyler campaigned on one issue and one issue alone..."United We Stand, Divided We Fall." If she didn't create the racial divide in the district nobody else can take blame for it. She NEVER stepped into other areas of the district and asked for her vote. She concentrated only on the black vote. Newspapers across the district have written articles about the election and stating their congrats for Mrs. Tyler but asking why she will not talk to the papers. I want a Delegate who will communicate with all of the people and form a relationship with the newspapers so the district is educated on the issues and events of the General Assembly. The people have no idea what representation they will receive because Rosalyn Tyler failed to show up at campaign forums, instead she sent her husband to represent her. Is that the representation we can expect from her in the General Assembly? If so, why didn't Rufus Tyler run for the seat...oh I remember why...he is being investigated by the FBI for charges of robbing the people of his communities blind. Hope the FBI was in the district the day of the election to see the non-profit that he runs working for Rosalyn and using their vans that day....hope they checked to see if they listed that as an in kind contribution. I don't want to be represented by trash and that is exactly what I feel Mrs. Tyler is along with her family. I fear the talk of indictments coming down are just that...talk. I am a devoted Democrat but if Tyler doesn't step down I have no choice but to help elect the republican Carson Saunders. I realize this could hurt the party I love but I would rather look out for the interests and lives of the residents of the 75th District.

 
At 5:36 PM, Blogger Not Virgil Goode said...

Now that's some stong stuff from Not Hillary. I get the feeling though that she is not alone. This may be one of the most interesting races in the state, but few pwople know about it because of the scant media coverage.

 
At 10:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This district is what it is and all you have to do to win this district is make nice to the base and talk nice to a few other groups. Not very hard.

A Democratic district that will stay a democratic district. Not too hard to do. Give the democrats some credit, they own all the Dem seats, they can do that much.

 
At 6:55 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Last Anon- make nice to people like the Democratic Delegate who is trying to get people to elect the Republican?

 
At 12:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

TIME OUT! Not Hillary.... are you of European American descent, because it definitely sounds that way. I don't care that you are devoted Democrat. The tatics used by Tyler have been used by white candidates throughout the Commonwealth. I do fault Mrs. Tyler for not reaching out after the eletion, but nonetheless she WON! On a regular basis, white candidates campaign to their own. Some white candidates will never step foot in an African-American church. I formally lived in a Republican dominiated district and I've never seen my delegate attend an African-American event. You want to know why? Because he/she didn't have to. They knew where their votes were. Mrs. Tyler won the election, let us all judge her effectiveness after she begins her service!

 
At 1:15 PM, Blogger Not Virgil Goode said...

Hey anon. It matters that she is a sleezebag who has been involved in numerous illegal activities. Just wait

 
At 1:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

all of the other candidates in the democratic primary reached out to a cross section of voters...just not Tyler

 
At 1:39 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

Hey NVG-where do you get the info that Tyler is a slezebag?...Everything I read and hear is that its her husband?

 
At 1:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NPG
I thing it is pretty clear that they are partners in crime

 
At 1:47 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

OK, this stops now.

If someone is going to be charged with something, say what it is.

Don't just throw out the word "criminal"

 
At 12:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with you NLS. And someone said race isn't evident in the 75th district or Virgina politics. That is bull, because it is! And it is obvious evident here!

 
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