Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Sunday, July 17, 2005

52nd District Update (#1 on the Dirty Dozen)

Old Outlook: Toss Up
New Outlook: Leans Democratic

This is the first time we have ranked an incumbent as the underdog in their re-election. But every time we have made an excuse as to why this is still a tossup, Hilda Barg has cleared the bar- and easily.

Meanwhile the leaking Brinks truck that we described in the Werkheiser campaign has also been making deliveries to Jeff Frederick in this seat. To date, Frederick has spent almost $150,000 on this election and is left with only about $100,000 in the bank.

Frederick's spending habits have forced his campaign that has raised far more dollars to trail Barg in cash on hand by $41,000 (145-104).

The 52nd district is also home to the fewest swing voters of any competitive district in Virginia. This Warner/Kaine/Kerry area has been very consistent in giving Democrats a winning margin. Hilda Barg represents about 2/5 of the district on the Prince William Board and has never run below 60%.

Jeff Frederick is doing everything he can to hang on here and not become known as the accidental Delegate. On his website, you might be surprised to see who Frederick pictures himself with.

Tom Delay, who had a fundraiser for Frederick? Nope.

Conservative Prince William Delegates Marshall or Lingamfelter? Nope.

Why look- it's Congressman Tom Davis and Prince William Chairman Sean Connaughton!

Here's our question. Will Former Delegate Frederick be the conservative challenger to Sean Connaughton in 2007 for Chairman of Prince William? Frederick's politics are much better suited to all of Prince William then the district he currently represents. It's becoming very hard to see how he can pull this one out in the 52nd.

56 Comments:

At 3:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's Del. Lingamfelter, not Lingenfelter. I'm having a hard time understanding how a site dedicated to the House of Delegates elections could misspell the name of a sitting Delegate like this. But with 4 NLS's, we don't know if this is the usual writer or not.

 
At 3:12 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Sorry. Fixed Now.

 
At 3:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hilda Barg represents about half of the district on the Prince William Board

You have gotten this wrong before. One would think you could get stats correct given what you're trying to do here. Barg only has 35% of this district. Run the numbers yourself (or do you know how to do factual calculations, or just completely speculate all the time)?

 
At 3:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What bar? She hasn't been doing anything... Her colleague on the county board and mentor John Jenkins even even asked Barg the other night "Are you still running for Delegate... when are you going to start your campaign?"

 
At 4:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Keep on underestimating Frederick.

 
At 4:14 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I ran the numbers again, looks like 40% of the recent turnout, so I will amend to that. Census track is closer to 50%, but turnout is lower in the 700's (Woodbridge District)

 
At 5:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Isn't she going into the hospital for serious blood clots?

 
At 5:38 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Wait? Isn't Hilda Barg going to the hospital? Isn't she almost dying? Isn't she on her death bed? Isn't Jeff Frederick young and full of spunk?

Love,
Anonymous Frederick campaign staffer

 
At 6:01 PM, Blogger Danny said...

Very good analysis NLS, I would have to concur, I took a look back at my files from the 2001 campaign, and would like to point out that Clinton won this district twice as did Gore. I have a feeling that next year we will have the newly elected Delegate Barg.

 
At 6:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How many days late were you NLS? YOU ARE WORTHLESS

 
At 10:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A lot of people in this district would hate to lose Hilda as their supervisor. I wonder if this prospect will have any effect on the voting.

There is no one who comes to mind as a solid supervisor candidate to fill her seat, if she wins.

Personally, I think Hilda running for this seat is a bad move on her part. She's got an easy life now on the BOS, and she's well-known everywhere. For the most part, being a GA delegate is just like being a "nobody". I don't think she'll be happy in the GA, if she wins.

 
At 1:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Frrrrrrrreeeeeeeedddddddrrrrriiiiiiicccccccccccccccckkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkk

BBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

 
At 8:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS, you obviously based this only on numbers and not by talking to those who live in Prince William and are active in local politics. Before the next update please contact individuals from both parties off the record to get their view on the race. This will allow you to write a more honest outlook of this race. Your writing in this race tends to tip off who you are.

Frederick has knocked on doors for the past few months while Hilda just started this weekend.

Frederick has had a website throughout the whole campaign. Hilda still does not have an operational site up. I think this alone speaks volume for Hilda's campaign organization or lack of. It also says something about her personal committement to this race.

And now here is the key thing to look when you run the numbers again. Hilda will not get enough votes in Woodbridge to beat Frederick's margin in Dumfries. Bottom line is Hilda will lose this race in a close race.

It is pretty clear now that you just look at the finance reports and the 04 results when predicting races.

 
At 9:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This race might also offer a long term view as to the impact of redistricting. When the GA redistricted after the 1990 census, this was supposed to be a democratic-leaning district. The supposition was that Harry Parrish couldn't be beaten-so give the 50th as many GOP voters as possible. Protect David Brickely in 51, and give him as many Dem votes as possible. Make 52 as democratic as possible to take out Jack Rollison. Take was was left in the 13th and see what happens.

What happened was that the 13th turned out to be a solidly GOP district, and that Rollison, a moderate GOP with long roots in the community mangaged to make the seat safe for himself-but not necessarily for the GOP. Jack's political efforts tended to revolve around him and his ambitions, and not the party. This lack of organization building with combined with (1) his moderate social positions and (2) his backing of the tax referendum left JAR vulnerable in a primary challenge, and JF took advantage of this in 2003.

Now JF is up against another "rooted" politician, and it will be interesting to see how things play out in a district that was seemingly always intended to be a competitive district!

 
At 10:06 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Please stay on topic. 2 comments deleted.

 
At 10:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

delete delete delete, why not spend less time deleting and more doing analysis?

 
At 11:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS,

Since you mentioned Delegate Marshall (briefly), I thought you might find this amusing...

Marshall has a new website: http://www.delegatebob.com. While it's not very well developed yet, the bottom of the site says "Designed by Sire Designs". Clicking on the link takes you to an ultra-Liberal pac called Virginia Family Values PAC that rips Marshall a new one for his anit-privacy and anti-choice stances, calling himself the "Self appointed chastity czar" for the state.

Either this is a parody, or Marshall is stupid enough to link to his political enemies on his own website...

 
At 11:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is Jeff paying his campaign manager $4,100 a month (according to vpap.org) like Werkheiser is? If he is than he is stupid enough that actually deserves to lose to that fossile Barg.

 
At 11:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear anon 5:00pm -

She was in the hospital actually for three day this month but it wasn't because of blood clots.

She delivered a healthy 6lb 7oz boy. She named him Jeff so when people ask him "Who's your mommy," he can say Hilda Barg.

 
At 12:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Frederick has another thing going for him: his wife Amy.

 
At 12:35 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

NLS-Hate to go off topic, but, its relevant to the blog...Is Watts' opponent 60K ahead in cash on hand? What gives?

 
At 12:38 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

NPG, go into the July stories (link of left side of page). The 39th was #12 on the dirty dozen and we explained what was going on. It is weird.

 
At 1:44 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

I have to concur that this will be a close race, but Frederick will pull it out in the end. I live in the district and have witnessed both candidates in action (or as in Barg's case so far, inaction.) At various events where I have seen Barg (supermarket grand opening, HOA annual meeting, etc.), she keeps to herself and to the small cadre of supporters (3-4 people at most) who are with her.

Whoever this particular NLS who posted this is, he/she/it does not understand PWC politics. *IF* Frederick were to lose, I would have a hard time seeing him run for county chairman, whether or not it would be against Connaughton. First, it is more than likely that Colgan will retire from the Senate and Connaughton will run for that seat. Second, there are a number of current supervisors who are more likely to run for chairman if there is an opening (Maureen Caddigan, Wally Covington, Marty Nohe, and John Stirrup are all possibilities.)

Finally, NLS's calculations fail to take into account the growth in this district from new housing with single-family home prices starting at $500K and townhomes around $300K. Potomac Precinct, once a Democrat bastion in this district, had a better than 2-1 turnout in favor of the GOP during the primary last month and GOP candidates are increasingly carrying this precinct by larger and larger numbers (look at the county candidates in 2003.) While Frederick narrowly lost Potomac in 2003, I wouldn't be surprised to see him carry it this year.

 
At 1:50 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Jim, All good points. What I was pointing out was a possible Frederick challenge to an incumbent Connaughton if Frederick were to lose.

 
At 3:12 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

2-1 GOP turnout last month? Who cares? It was like that in most of the state.

Plus, Connaughton is from PW and drove up turnout for the GOP in that county.

 
At 3:33 PM, Anonymous Paul Orondorf said...

I think the thing that will really make a difference in this race is that most people think Kilgore is going to stomp Kaine, especially in traditionally Republican areas like Prince William and Loudon County. This will hurt Democrats in these areas in two ways, first it fires up Republican activists go all out for their tickets. This also turns off many Democratic activists from doing things like phone banking and canvassing figuring their is no point, they will just lose anyways.

I say this as a Democrat who is very concerned that Kaine's pathetic campaign will weigh down any chance Barg, Poisson, Roemmelt, and even some Fairfax area Democrats like Werkheiser, Bulova, and Caputo have of winning in 2005.

 
At 3:59 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Centrist, even if you discount the primary turnout last month, the other factors that I mentioned still come into play.

 
At 4:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Paul Orondorf says "traditional Republican areas like Prince William and Loudon..."

This district went for Clinton, Gore, Kerry, Warner. Don't forget that Tom Davis dropped this portion of Prince William for western Prince William during the last redristicting.

This district has much more in common with eastern Fairfax County that Stafford County.

Kaine will easily win eastern Prince William. When the voters begin to get interested in the campaign (to the extent they normally do) - turnout will be fine.

 
At 4:20 PM, Blogger Riley, Not O'Reilly said...

Thanks for your take on this race, Timmy Kaine. What other predictions do you have in lollipop land and gumdrop world?

 
At 4:51 PM, Anonymous Paul Orondorf said...

Anon 4:08,

I did not know that about the district. But you must concede that not many Democrats are motivated for Tim Kaine, and most Republicans are fired up for Kilgore. And that will work its way down into how much effort people put in for other candidates.

 
At 7:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like JF won this district handily in 2003 -- especially considering it is supposed to be a Clinton/Kerry/Warner district. It wasn't even close. He won 12/15 precincts and those he lost, it wasn't by much, but some he won, he won huge. Whomever said he's strong in Dumfries, this would back that up. If Barg only has 35% or 40% of this district, and then only gets 60% of the vote in that 35/40, then I wonder if she can do this.

On his campaign manager, it looks like he's getting a good deal; no where near $4100 a month.

 
At 7:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Paul are you really a democrat? If you really are and you must attack, attack republicans not democrats.

 
At 8:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 8:27 - Did Hilda really knock on doors this weekend? I heard she didn't even hit one, but let volunteers do it. This would make sense given the poor start they are having - especial with her kickoff being the disaster it was.

 
At 8:31 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Ummmm...I've heard that the Republicans have given up on this seat...from multiple sources...

You guys have fun doing your little "campaign" thing though.

 
At 11:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Word on the street is Ferguson has Mudcat Sanders working for him. If he is paying him, that could be the 60k right there.

Mudcat can work that district. Dudley hired Preston Bryant's manager, so he is also serious about this race.

 
At 7:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hilda did not knock on doors and looks for every excuse not to. That alone speaks volume about her and this race.

Anon 7:58 is right on the money.
Local Democrats are disgusted with her campaign or lack of so far.

 
At 9:35 AM, Anonymous Paul Orondorf said...

Anon 7:58,

If you really care about the Democrats chances you have to be critical of them when they are screwing around. Just blindly supporting someone because they are part of your party, even though they are making mistakes and they continue to lose based on those mistakes is not doing you, them, or the party any good.

If you really care about the party you push its nominees to get things right and run good campaigns. And that will mean you have to be critical of people who are screwing up and wasting good opportunities.

 
At 11:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Paul, I could not agree with you more. Hilda has been running a piss poor campaign since her announcement. Honestly I have a hard time calling it a campaign so far. Hopefully this will change but has the comments on this blog have shown it doesn't seem likely as long as it is run by her current staffers.

Warner's folks dropped the ball on this one by forcing other more organizied candidates out of the way for Hilda.

 
At 11:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a longtime resident of Prince William County I can gently say a few things to Paul Orondorff and Anon 11:09am. No one is "screwing up this race."

Caampaigns are can be lost in the summer but not won. Hilda Barg running a fine campaign. Jeff Frederick has heard more "thanks for knocking on mydoor but I'm voting for Hilda Barg," than anyone should have to hear.

She has been a Supervisor in 40% of the district (turnout) for almost 20 years. Her family has lived in the district for almost a hundred years. Of the 8 or so precinct she does not currently represent, 4 are clearly Democratic and 4 are lean Republican to Republican. More than enough to win without counting her rooted political base that extends beyond her supervisor district.

As for Anon 11:09am saying that "Warner forced out more organized candidates," that is a joke. The one person who was running before Hilda enetered was the campaign manager for the Democrat who lost to Frederick. That was one of the worst campaigns in Prince William History. Everyone wanted Barg to run and the other guy to drop out.

This district will vote for Hilda because they actually know her. I also doubt you will see very many Kaine-Fredrick voters.

 
At 11:43 AM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Considering that Frederick is 20 yards to the right of Kilgore...one would think that Kilgore would outperform him by 5 points or so in this district...

I agree with the last anon.

 
At 12:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 11:39 aka Barg's staffers - just an FYI there were 3 individuals looking into the Democratic nomination in addition to Ms. Barg.

I can tell you that most members of the local Democratic Committee did not want her to run.

As far as the worst run campaigns in Prince William you can pretty much pick any Democratic Campaign since 1990 but I would look at the 2001 race in this district as the worst. But the real problem with the county and you have touched on it a bit is the lack of quality candidates in these races over the years.

 
At 1:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Part of the reason the local dem committee didn't want Barg to run for GA is because it leaves an opening on the BOS - and no candidates with any name recognition to fill it. Unless, of course, you count that uber-right-wing former Woodbridge school board member Steve Keen (who has already indicated an intention to run for the seat when Barg is gone).

 
At 1:55 PM, Anonymous Paul Orondorf said...

Anon 11:39 am,

Congratulations, Hilda. Although many people think you are a fossil, you have shown us all that you know how to use a computer. You should be so proud. Now go out and campaign a little sweetie.

 
At 3:45 PM, Anonymous Hilda Barg said...

It's extremely important that I get my message out in this campaign and I'm putting my foot down here. Please stop deleting my posts

 
At 3:47 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Dear Hilda, you and Pat McSweeney have posted 23 times in the last 10 minutes. Are you together or did you both get a break at the same time.

Remember rule 2- we won't object if someone wants to sue you. And impersonating someone you are not in the first person is a good reason for them to do that.

 
At 4:02 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Ummm...not exactly. Satire is perfectly legal. And it's even more legal if you're talking about public figures.

 
At 4:04 PM, Anonymous Hilda Barg said...

Centrist, we are alike. Middle of the road in our positions and agreeing on this topic. Thank you for voicing your opinion in allowing me to get my message out. We have a czar here it seems.

 
At 4:09 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Centrist- You missed most of their messages. No Satire, they in fact were just claiming to be Hilda and/or Pat McSweeney. We don't delete satire here, but this one poster is not putting up satire.

 
At 4:10 PM, Anonymous Hilda Barg staffer said...

you shouldn't be able to delete posts, how is this an open forum then? If you didn't delete posts maybe the person taking over your blog wouldn't post so much

 
At 5:00 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

I should have figured that. My bad.

 
At 7:17 PM, Blogger Danny said...

anon 12:51,

I take great insult to you naming as the 2001 the worst run campaign, I ran it. We did more with less then Taylor in 2003, and any previous candidate and we did it against JAR, not Frederick. Not to mention that everyone thought that we were the underdogs, which we were, and our help from the PWC Dems and Hilda was pretty much Nil.

Danny

 
At 7:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Virginia Centrist: if the GOP have given up on this seat, why did they just write more than $10K in checks to JF according to the last report?

Anon 11:39: How in the heck do you know what JF is hearing? Do you have superman ears? Do you even live in that district?

 
At 9:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon 12:51 - You are right in that a few people explored running but only one candidate before Hilda announced was "officially" running and he managed Charlie Taylor's race.

I agree with Danny when he said the 2001 race was run better. The 2003 race against Frederick was one of the worst I have ever seen.

It was a truly historic feat of on-the-ground mismanagement. While passing bloody car recks in the other lane, I sometimes catch myself drawn to the sight. The 2003 campaign was unwatchable at any level. It was like watching an 18 year-old take lunch money from a six year-old, then beat the six year-old to a bloody pulp and not be able to do anything to stop it.

90% of the folks wanted Hilda to run because they know she should win. Even the folks who did not want her to run know she should win as they did not want her supervisor seat to open.

Virginia Centrist's analysis of the race is pretty good as in this case NLS giving Barg the advantage.

Even Jim Young will not risk his reputation and call this race for Frederick.

 
At 10:30 AM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Left Nut said...

When I went to vote in 2003, Charlie Taylor was at my polling place. He was dancing and making a fool of himself. I don't know if he had been drinking, but by the way he was acting, I certainly hope that he had been and he doesn't go through life like that every day. Bloody car wreck is an understatement.

 
At 11:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why won't Barg debate Frederick?

 
At 4:36 PM, Anonymous E.D. is not your friend said...

Better question is, why won't Barg campaign at all?

Contrary to what others here think, the other 3/5 of the district is not very familiar with Hilda at all. They may not be thrilled with Jeff, but he's visible and is showing some results (funds for commuter parking lots, etc.) If they know Hilda at all or if she tells someone unfamiliar with her that she is the Woodbridge supervisor, her name becomes synonomous with suburban blight -- run down strip malls, abandoned gas stations, used car dealerships that are fronts for who knows what, and illegal alien day laborers hanging out in front of the 7-11 -- ALL THIS ON ROUTE 1 IN GLORIOUS WOODBRIDGE, THE DISTRICT THAT HILDA BUILT THE PAST 20 YEARS.

 

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