Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Thursday, July 07, 2005

42nd District (#9 on the Dirty Dozen)

Outlook: Leans Republican

Greg Werkheiser has got to be frustrated. Here's a young, bright, articulate young candidate who between his PAC and campaign has raised $233,000, yet only $102,000 is left and the campaign has barely begun. Can you imagine a Brinks truck that is supposed to deliver a quarter of a million dollars and shows up with 100 thousand instead?

Meanwhile the massive amounts of money Werkheiser has raised woke up incumbent Dave Albo from his 15 year slumber. Albo's fundraising has now caught fire and his Brinks truck doesn't have a hole in it, leaving him with $175,000 left.

If Werkheiser wants to make this race what it could be, which is the best in the Commonwealth, he has to start saving his money. In many ways this is what makes our system so perfect. Candidates who overspend early and don't manage their campaign dollars tend to lose, and then not be responsible for spending billions of tax dollars. That's a good thing.

But Werkheiser can be the exception to this rule. His early start leaves the door open for him to make the changes he needs to make a move. On his "Blueprint" page he's off to a good start by focusing on local rather than regional transportation issues- however to see that you have to go through a two page pre-amble. Once again, he's on the right track- almost.

The July 15th Finance Report here will be very interesting.

59 Comments:

At 3:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually, according to VPAP, Werkheiser has raised 200k.

 
At 3:33 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

That's his campaign account. WerkPAC raised $47,000 and that is not included. Hence my $257,000 number.

 
At 3:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS - no, the WERKPAC transfered 47k to the Werkheiser for Delegate account. So you're essentially counting it twice by adding it to the Werkheiser for Delegate numbers. The $47k is part of the $210k. Blah.

 
At 3:42 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm amending, but you are only half right. $24,893 was transfered in. The other half was spent (like what is happening in the main Werkheiser account that we are talking about)

 
At 3:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gah! Where is all of that money going?

 
At 3:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This race is going to be a close one, a real Flair v. Rhodes kind of battle. Don't get too caught up in the money game, this will come down to ground game and going to door.

 
At 4:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't be in such a hurry to rush your reviews to print to meet deadlines. You are hurting your credibility. I spent only five minutes checking out the premises of your review of the 42nd and found numerous obvious flaws: (1) The VPAP numbers already include the money Werkheiser raised and spent from his PAC--it says so on the front page of the VPAP report. (2) Werkheiser did not spend $154,000 as you imply. His actual expenditures are half that, $73,000, which has been since 2003, hardly the offensive number you imply.

Instead of leaving these obvious errors on your top page and letting the corrections in the comments sections, you should should revise your post to reflect reality.

 
At 4:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yawn. This debate is making me bored. This race is going to be a tight one, and posturing by both sides isn't going to change anything. From what I've heard, both ground campaigns are hard at work.

 
At 4:11 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

This does not include WerkPAC. Add line 24 to Werk PAC incomes/expenses. Also if you look at line 28 there it says the campaign alone has spent $95,757, which does not include the amount spent by WerkPAC.

 
At 4:13 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

The Werkheiser people would be better served helping their candidate with his finances then telling us their expenses are not far above what anyone else has to spend in any House race.

 
At 4:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You have to at least hand it to Werkheiser's people. Whether it is complaining about their opponent's campaign contributions, trying to justify their candidate's rash spending rates, trumpeting the turn-out at a single parade when their opponent had a presence at multiple ones, or just outright attacking anyone who question's their candidate's actions they at least try. At least on blogs.

Let's here it for the Jerkforce!

 
At 4:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well I hate to beat a dead horse here, but the cash expended is $73k and the high number you cite (something over $100k) includes in-kinds, which the state counts as expenditures. You certainly can't fault the campaign for collecting tons of in-kinds, can you?

 
At 4:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very mature, Jeremy.

 
At 4:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Huh. "Jerkforce" was actually a typo -- should have been Werkforce -- but I think I will officially submit it as part of this year's House of Delegates race lexicon.

Henceforth, anyone who trolls blogs on behalf of a particular candidate is a member of the "jerkforce," anyone who does so specifically on behalf of Greg Werkheiser is a member of "The Jerkforce." (note capital letters)

Note: this name does not apply to anyone who presents a logical argument in defense of a candidate. It is merely used to distinguish trolls.

Other submission:

Bullovaed: to have one's campaign publically undermined by an over-protective parent

 
At 4:37 PM, Anonymous The Colonel said...

You know what I love about this race? It is only July and both sides hate each other. Get ready for a fun fall.

 
At 4:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's not true. Me and Jeremy are BFF.

 
At 4:41 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Oh my god! NLS mentions issues! Praise the lord!

Couldn't you perhaps put a link in the post so we could go to the site and look at said issues? Or must we just discuss insider campaign malarky all day long and bore me half to death?

 
At 4:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What does BFF stand for?

 
At 4:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Few weeks ago you tried to almost call the 99th delegate race. Albert Pollard has endorsed Linda Crandell. Robert Wittman is push polling northern neck voters right now. That doesn't sound like a campaign that thinks it will coast to Richmond. It may creep up on your list if you would pay attention to it.

 
At 4:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

best friends forever

 
At 4:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm curious about NLS's opinion on this, since he seems to be an old campaign hack - do mail pieces actually do anything? I've heard they just cancel each other out/clutter people's mail boxes.

 
At 4:55 PM, Anonymous The Colonel said...

Anon 4:49,

That is good to hear. But you must admit that is increasingly becoming an exception. I have many Republican friends and we just agree not to talk about the elections, especially in the Fall.

 
At 6:07 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

If they are good they can help. Each one gets about 10 seconds of attention.

 
At 6:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd listen to the Colonel if I were you, people.

 
At 6:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Other thing is, mail can become something you HAVE to do, but do not get much credit for.

If your opponent sends one out and you don't, you risk looking bad even if no one really reads them.

 
At 7:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hate to post rumors... but...

My friend from W+M tells me Werkheiser is a huge Rupaul fan. Apparently he used to put lipstick on and sing along to the SuperModel song. Since the chorus was Work-Supermodel!- he would make it Werk and yell it while shaking his booty. I see on his website he is being a typical politician and instead of dressing up like Rupaul, he now pretends to like Elvis....

 
At 8:36 PM, Blogger Not Mark Rozell said...

Mail pieces only help you if they contain a picture you deep in the mud in a $100 pair of slacks. At that point, much will be made of this irrelevant detail, causing you to crush your opponent.

I think that's the real definition of "Bulovaed."

:)

 
At 8:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hate to spread rumors, but apparently Dave Albo tried to lower the penalty for child molestation year.

But that's ok. A prosecutor asked him to do it.

 
At 8:43 PM, Anonymous Albo said...

Albo was NOT at multiple parades. That's a huge lie. I know - I'm the

Keep it up.

 
At 9:35 PM, Blogger Not Mark Rozell said...

Are you guys still on that child molestation thing? I thought we had debunked it. My sources in the General Assembly (Dem and GOP) tell me that whole thing was overblown. At worst, it was an issue of "unintended consequences." Keep it up and I may have to post the whole story on my blog.

 
At 10:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

>>This race is going to be a close one, a real Flair v. Rhodes kind of battle<<

Dusty Rhodes was a fat pig. You cannot compare him to Nature Boy Flair.

Maybe you can compare him to David Albo.

I heard Harley Race interviewed, and he said that Dusty did not have the physical conditioning of his other top opponents. He said that you had to slow the moves down when you rassled Dusty.


--Jonathan Mark

 
At 11:42 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm taking the last comment down until you send me the text that says that anonymous

 
At 8:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I compare the race to Flair and Rhodes because those were always long matches that went back and forth. I agree the Nature Boy was the better wrestler. This race will be like that, back and forth until the end but in the end the clearly superior wrestler will win.

 
At 10:00 AM, Anonymous GayVA said...

One thing I think you really omit in your analysis on these races is any mention of ideology. The truth is that the 42nd is a very moderate district--Kerry won it with a lot less campaigning in Virginia than Werkheiser has already put it--which elected Albo as a moderate. He's moved well to the right as he's become part of the leadership. For example, In 2003, Albo was endorsed by the Log Cabin Republicans. In 2004, Albo earned a 33 score from Equality Virginia. His opposition to civil rights, to choice, and to the tax reform bill will cost him. The changing demographics of Fairfax are making it increasingly Democratic by the day. Albo is in trouble.

 
At 11:07 AM, Anonymous Pete Doherty said...

Gayva,

That is a very good point. I wonder if that will play out in other races (ie Craddock v. Caputo)?

 
At 12:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You overestimate the importance of ideology. For many years, Saslaw and O'Brien represented the same 5 precincts. Saslaw won all 5 and so did O'Brien.

It's grassroots, my man, grassroots.

 
At 1:57 PM, Anonymous TLM said...

Yes but. Turnout will be low this fall, call it post presidential letdown. So Albo has to have an edge since those who will vote will normally not vote against an incumbant unless there is a scandal or hot issue to drive them. Hardly think Tim Kaine is going to generate that kind of heat. Albo's votes won't create backlash either. As for the civil rights stuff..take a drive around the district..notice all the churches?? Hmmmm We moved to the 39th to escape those people!

 
At 2:33 PM, Anonymous gayVA said...

Churches do not necessarily mean anti-gay. In fact, more and more people of faith and getting involved in the fight for civil rights. The voters of the 42nd are too open-minded to continue to elect a bigot like Albo.

 
At 3:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not Mark Rozell: No crap it was unintended consequences. Do we want legislators who accidentally lower the penalty for child molestation, then throw a hissy fit for a month after they're called on it?

 
At 3:40 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

Post the whole story NMR. It wont matter. The unintended consequences wont work. The public expects thier legislators to be smarter than that. If Werkheiser has the since to stay on message and harp on this issue, Albo is gone. The question is can Werk stay on message?

 
At 3:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ummm. I'm a Dem involved in GA, and I know the whole story. I'm not sure who Not Mark Rozell talked to..And it's somewhere between unintended consequences (complete accident) and unintended consequences (giving a prosecutor friend a favor). No, Albo didn't try to lower the penalty, but this was certainly a boneheaded mistake.

Besides - the main thrust of this despicable bill was to try to find another way to pick on gay people in the post Lawrence v. Texas world where we're definitely going to see an "unabated rash of sodomy in the streets."

 
At 4:05 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

Did the bill pass and did it lower the penalty? The first question is truly academic. If Werkheiser punds away the message that Albo sponsored this bill then it does not matter the motive or anything else. He is gone. Again, can Werkheiser stay on message. In case Doug Dodson needs help the messa ge is simple..."Your Delegate Dave Albo, a criminal defense attorney, tried to lower the penalty for child molestation. Dave Albo puts his criminal clients before the citizens of Virginia. We need a change"...thats it. Say nothing else until Nov 8 and the election is over. Albo cannot explain this away. Mistake, intentional...whatever...the voters won't care.

 
At 4:11 PM, Anonymous TLM said...

People of faith involved in civil rights..yeah, right. Centuries of sexist dogma suddenly sees the light. Do admire your rose glasses gayva...but remember that 90% of the people attending churches HATE us. Those marriage amendments are passing with over 70% votes..gives everyone a safe reason to vote against queers. Oh they like us on TV and at the company picnic, but don't ask them to respect you or your relationships as an equal...not in our lifetimes. Those that do "accept" us only do so as sinners who need saving. They love that word "tolerate", like one would a drunk uncle or a sore foot. We've replaced the communists and Clintons as the big fundraising bait for the right wingers...so they hate us and love us at the same time. Now even the Dems have caught on.. Crazy ain't it.

 
At 4:30 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Not Paul Goldman:

People don't respond well to these charges. They think to themselves, "Oh know! Mud is being thrown!" and they react negatively to the candidate who throws it. This, despite the fact that it's an actual bill that someone put in instead of something stupid like people's personality or their appearance...and of course, NLS doesn't cover issues on here, just gossip, rumors, demographics, and fundraising.

An effective tactic might be to harp on the carelessness aspect, as the anonymous poster above suggests. But even then, it's just too crazy for your average voter to believe (despite that fact that the "unintended consequences" part seems to be true).

 
At 5:00 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I cover issues. Like for example in this story I talked about Werk's blueprint.

 
At 5:31 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

VC-I live in the 74th. People believe this stuff...mostly because its true. McEachin went after Miles on guns in schools...got out spent 2 or 3 to one...everybody and the Governor supported Miles and McEachin still won (despite a record trunoout in Miles home county)...it was the gun issue that brought the district back to McEachin. Who would think that someone would vote to make it easier to bring a gun onto school grounds...the strategy worked becasue ir was true. Same thing here. Thats the wonderful thing about issues, they matter and they stick.

 
At 5:31 PM, Blogger James Young said...

gayva 2:33: And opposition to the radical homosexual agenda does not mean "anti-gay," any more than supporting the Right to Work means "anti-union." Just as support for the RHA does not mean "civil rights."

Sadly, in fact, more and more people of faith are getting involved in the fight for civil "wrongs."

Just as more and more people of faith are getting involved in the fight for civil "rights" in opposing the RHA.

And it's really too bad that tlm confuses concern over the health consequences of risky sexual practices and immoral behavior as "hate." I suppose that he says the same thing about those who try to help alcoholics, drug addicts, other people who suffer because of their own bad behavior/choices, or for that matter, pediatric oncologists. But hey: just keep repeating the big lie, tlm. There are bound to be plenty out there foolish enough to believe you and contributing to your causes.

 
At 7:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only thing dirty on this dozen is Greg "Rupaul" Werkheiser.

 
At 8:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dave Albo rules!!!!!!!!!

 
At 1:47 AM, Anonymous Deuce said...

I guess the distillers or Albo's clients have been working on the hustings here. Well, excuse the pun, but that won't Werk around these parts...

 
At 7:37 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I said:

At 11:42 PM, Not Larry Sabato said...
I'm taking the last comment down until you send me the text that says that anonymous

You send me the text from the book that says that and I let the post stand.

 
At 10:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just read the Publisher's Weekly review: "Investigating his various desires, Mike unearths a secret involving his brother and their older, male babysitter." Hell, the first reference to it is on page two.

 
At 3:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you guys talking about Mike Albo's book, Hornito? yeah that's a good one.

 
At 8:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

you're not really going to leave up the "God Hates Fags" link are you? That's sad NLS. Stick to the issues.

 
At 10:15 AM, Anonymous Pete Doherty said...

James,

I find it very disturbing that you compare a loving relationship between two gay men or lesbians to drug addicts or alcoholics. Most gays and lesbians live happy lives and are productive members of society, unlike too many drugs addicts and alcoholics who sadly destroy themselves and hurt their loved ones in the process. If you don't believe me I suggest you go talk to many Log Cabin Republicans.

 
At 12:44 PM, Blogger James Young said...

Pete,
Now pay attention. I don't want to have to say this again:
I wasn't comparing "a loving relationship between two gay men or lesbians to drug addicts or alcoholics." I was applying the same kind of logic that causes homophiliacs like tlm to tar as "hateful" Christians who treat or attempt to encourage homosexuals to abandon their pathology with those who treat or attempt to encourage drug addicts or alcoholics to abandon their pathologies. If such Christians "hate" homosexuals, then alcohol and drug treatment counselers -- and anyone who opposes addiction -- must also "hate" addicts. And if you don't concede that point, then you must join me in condemning tlm's hyperbolic statement, which was intended only to smear Christians and their faith.

And BTW, you are well aware that the vast majority of homosexuals aren't in a "loving relationship," but are instead engaged in "the lifestyle" (i.e., multiple sex partners, etc.). It is one of the great canards of the radical homosexual agenda -- a tactic which is certainly wise, if dishonest, and advanced (perhaps even honestly) by more rational thinkers like Andrew Sullivan -- that homosexuals are interested in even attempting the idealized notion of "marriage" that even normal men and women fall short in practicing. Nice try.

 
At 2:24 PM, Anonymous Not gay said...

James is right. I am an ex-gay and it is all based on love. Once they got done electro-shocking my nuts and other forms of aversion therapy I realized the ex-gay counselors really did love me. The fact that they were sadistic bastards who make Joseph Mengele look like a Sunday school teacher is irrelevant. They really, really, really, love me, as long as I do what they want.

 
At 5:06 PM, Blogger James Young said...

Poor "not gay." It's really too bad that you have to misrepresent anonymously your broadly-defined enemies, comparing them to one of the most notorious Nazis. 'Course, spares you the difficult task of actually confronting facts, so I guess your strategy is easy to understand. Perhaps that was part of your "aversion therapy," too?

And who is it who "hates"?

 
At 8:50 AM, Anonymous Not gay said...

James,
It is not about hate. I love them and they love me, provided I do what they tell me too. Can't you feel the love?

 

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