Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Saturday, July 09, 2005

41st District (#7 on the Dirty Dozen)

Outlook: Toss Up

While we are keeping this race as a tossup, we are moving Dave Marsden to the top line on the right side of our page. We always put the slight favorite in tossups on top. The finance reports due on July 15th are the reason Marsden has taken the advantage here. Michael Golden has raised slightly less than Marsden as of the last report, but since then Marsden had a major fundraiser with Governor Warner and Golden had to spend a lot of his money on the June 14th Republican primary. The cash on hand advantage for Marsden should be huge here, and Golden has to begin catching up in money if he wants to win this election.

In fact, we were all ready to make this race a "Leans Democratic" until we got an email tip last week.

You may remember when we told you to visit Dave Marsden's website to see how local Democratic icon and former 41st District candidate Cathy Belter was still refusing to endorse him. The next week when Cathy showed up on the site, we did another post pointing out that Marsden seemed to finally be uniting the Democrats behind him.

Our email tip suggested we visit the site once again.

Indeed, the Belter endorsement is gone, along with the endorsement of Janet Oleszek from the Fairfax School Board. After we checked with some sources we learned that neither of them ever endorsed Marsden. It's unclear exactly what is happening here other then the Democrats have still not united behind their candidate. Until that happens we can not even consider making this a "Leans Democratic".

20 Comments:

At 3:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I dont get it. Does Marsden not want Belter's endorsement? Ben's? Why can't Brian Moran make a few phone calls and get everyone on the same page, even if it is only in public?

 
At 3:43 PM, Anonymous blunker said...

I live in White Oaks (Burke) and the Republicans are making sure every Democrat knows Marsden was a Gilmore guy. Golden will win either way, but we want a big margin to lock this seat up.

 
At 4:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No sane democrat would vote for Golden instead of Marsden even if Marsden was a Gilmore person.

 
At 6:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As an Arlington Dem, I am officially done with Fairfax County. Not sure which side I am on here, hate the idea of a Gilmore Republican, also hate the idea of a Michael Golden getting elected. But it is MID JULY and there are Dem Committee members still not on board?! How can you get 10,000 votes if you can't get all 40 on your party committee?

 
At 6:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dave Marsden hasn't received a Ben Tribbett endorsement. This is killer, because Tribbett is seriously gifted when it comes to campaigns. Just look at Cooter and Chap.

 
At 6:42 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 6:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I know quite a few Dems (admittedly more moderate--Chap types, not Byrne types) who are supporting Golden. He has the upper hand on two issues that even Dems in that district are getting fed up with: illegal immigration and property taxes.

Marsden's taking a unique approach going door-to-door. When people ask him if he is Dem or Rep, he won't answer straight. Two answers relayed to my friends, one a Rep, one a moderate Dem: "I'm a moderate" (without identifying party) and "I'm a Republican Democrat". His party affiliation isn't on any lit or his website. I don't know if that will help or hurt him...there are good arguments for either conclusion. And I wonder if that tactical decision by him/his team is what's driving the intraparty dissention?

NLS, one question--Since you seem to think the amounts on the July 15th report will be meaningful, what are your predictions for cash on hand for Marsden and Golden?

 
At 7:14 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I think it would be a victory for Golden to be within $50,000 cash on hand given the Governor's involvement and his primary expenses.

 
At 8:27 PM, Blogger Not Kenton Ngo said...

Wow, I'm only 14 years old and even I think this whole thing is really dumb.

 
At 9:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You cant be serious Golden is crazy. Not silly crazy, but really freaking crazy.

For the person who said this:
"Dems in that district are getting fed up with: illegal immigration and property taxes"

Sounds like you've lost your mind, that's a Republican speaking. So why high property taxes? Well could it be that a certain Gov. tried to get rid of the Car tax, bud did'nt replace revenue that the tax generated, could it be that the properity is actally worth more, hmm... think a bit

Now Im gonna slap the Dems around. Get your sh#$ straight guys, cant even support your guy. Someone needs to sit you Dem's down and smack some sense into you'll. At least the Republicans and fake it and support their guy.

 
At 9:42 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Wow. Now some fake Republican poster is claiming that Dems would actually not be satisfied with how moderate Marsden is.

I don't even believe that. That's a lie.

But I'll definitely believe that some idiot liberals think that Marsden isn't liberal enough.

Please. Send me your address. As a good Democrat, I'm threatening violence. I'll smack you. I'm not joking. Please. Let me know who you are. You are SO stupid.

 
At 10:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Look at the Golden pic. tell him to lay off the booze and coke

 
At 11:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

to anon 9:36: You stupid dolt...The car tax revenue was replaced. The state spends over $1 billion every year to reimburse localities. The problem is that there are too many unfunded mandates from richmond and dc -- that's why local taxes are so high

 
At 11:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon9:36--

I am anon6:47. I've been in this district forever, and while I am a lifelong Rep (and definitely right of center, though not Cuccinelli right) I have friends of all political persuasions. Believe it or not, those are the two issues that my moderate Dem friends and I agree on. If you don't believe me, look at Marsden's lit--the first issue on all of the pieces I've gotten is reducing property taxes. He hasn't addressed illegal immigration, so I don't know how he's going to tackle that issue.

I've met Golden twice at my door; he comes across as nice and on top of the issues, and certainly not "crazy". But I've got an open mind--why do you think he is?

virginiacentrist--

I hope you weren't addressing me. Regardless, apparently you have no direct knowledge of the 41st or either candidate. If you did, you would know that Marsden is not anywhere close to moderate. Based on what I know from my friends on the Rep County Committee, I can guarantee that the Marsden of 2004 and before is very different from the Marsden of 2005.

One more correction, this time from my friends on the Dem County Committee: it is not the liberal the Dems in the area who are rejecting Marsden. It is the party-first group that resents him because he "cut in line".

 
At 3:41 AM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 9:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

virginiacentrist--

As I figured, you obviously have no direct knowledge of the 41st (you don't even know the demographics). You obviously haven't seen any pertinent polls, either. That explains your POV. Frankly, I would expect someone who comments so frequently on these races to have a better understanding of each political environment.

Oh, and we may be "ignorant mofos", but we're the ones who pick the next delegate in the 41st, not you.

 
At 3:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"he cut in line"... what would that mean??

"I can guarantee that the Marsden of 2004 and before is very different from the Marsden of 2005"... Tell me more?

 
At 7:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

--"he cut in line"... what would that mean??--

There were a number of Dems who had paid their dues and waited patiently to run for the 41st seat after Dillard retired, most prominently Cathy Belter. They were very upset when they were *told* they would not be running this year so they could yield to a former Rep who was on the other County Committee's rolls as of April 2004.

--"I can guarantee that the Marsden of 2004 and before is very different from the Marsden of 2005"... Tell me more?--

Sorry, I can't betray my Committee friends' confidences, but suffice it to say that Marsden's pitch as tax reducer/spending cutter/centrist/moderate will encounter some credibility speed bumps as Election Day approaches. That's why I said his strategy is interesting. That's also why I think it's too early to decide if it will work or not.

 
At 9:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Sorry, I can't betray my Committee friends' confidences"

Hmmm, now that's intresting. So if Marsden was a Republican, who would be more in the center Marsden or Golden?

If the Dem friends' of yours want loose so be it. I looked at the Goldens' site and Golden calls Marsden a Liberal.

Quote: "as it is likely that our liberal opponent will be well funded by likeminded special interest groups"

http://www.electgolden.com/615update.html

Feel free to read it ourself.

So we have Golden calling Marsden a Liberal, Belter pissed she got overlooked, and Dem committe members calling Marsden a Republican. Ohh the Drama.

 
At 10:34 AM, Anonymous The Colonel said...

This is a big difference in the two parties. Republicans welcome Democrats who switch parties and Democrats crap all over Republicans who come over to their side. The fact is that right now the Democrats are the minority party in Virginia and starring down a potential statewide GOP sweep. The only way this situation is going to change is if Democrats convince some current Republicans to switch sides. And the 41 district is a great example of that happening.

But rather than rally around someone who wants to run as a Democrat and can actually win a seat, some Democrats are bitching about who waited their turn and who didn't pay their dues. Give me a break. Paying your dues and waiting your turn is usually what people say because they don't have any real reason to run accept to feed their egos.

My advice to all Democrats, go out and bust your ass to help get Dave Marsden elected, the same way Republicans helped the following ex-Democrats get elected:
Ronald Reagan
Phil Gramm
Ben Nighthorse Campbell
Michael Bloomberg
Richard Shelby
Jesse Helms
Norm Coleman
Billy Tauzin
Arlen Specter

 

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