Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, July 19, 2005

39th District Continued (#12 on the Dirty Dozen)

Outlook: Likely Democratic

----------------RAISED (June)--------- RAISED (Overall)------- CASH ON HAND

WATTS--------$12,930-----------------$60,612--------------------$41,360
MEUNIER-----$30,615----------------$147,236-----------------$104,201

Republican Michael Meunier has surged with fundraising but almost all of it is coming from out of state. Is he going to use this money to get the upset of the year- or is he going the way of Ed Robinson from the 35th who raised almost all of his money from out of state and then was defeated?

We still think this looks more like wasted money, but we could be convinced otherwise if Meunier starts running a real campaign. He can start by showing one contribution from inside his district on the next report.

17 Comments:

At 5:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS --

I was wondering if you could put up a tally of what you think will be the likely House of Delegates composition after this election.

I know it will have to wait until you finish updating "The Dirty Dozen." But it would be nice to see.

 
At 6:06 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

NLS....I am a dyed in the woll Democrat but this one scares me. I am not sure that I understand your out of state money analysis. Out of state money spends just like in state money. Dems have to go to work here.

 
At 7:24 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

What's the argument against Vivian Watts? She's a nice lady, not a sleazy pol like Albo or a right-winger like Frederick or Golden.

It's gonna be tough to knock her off...it would certainly be the upset of the season.

 
At 7:36 PM, Blogger GOPHokie said...

I agree with NPG. How is tons of out of state money bad?
In Robinson's case, many Reps might have thought it was a sign of weakness in the district and voted against him in the primaries. I can't see that same thing happeneing again. There will be alot more uninformed voters in the general. ALOT More.

 
At 7:38 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

We are guessing with gas prices as high as they are that will be the #1 issue (Vivian's bill for a major gas tax hike is not as popular now)

 
At 8:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't see any staff under Vivian's financials. Is she running a campaign?

 
At 9:31 PM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

Tons of out of state money is not bad. Tons of out of state money with no in district money is. It says you have no support locally. That the people who make the decision on your vote are not committed to you or invested in you. In other words, it is an indicator of whether or not your campaign has any local roots or organization.

 
At 9:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd liken this race to Kamal Nawash two years ago--lots of money, no contributions from (or support of) people in the district who were very happy with the excellent representation they were receiving from the incumbent woman.

 
At 10:09 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Hmmm...is the gas tax really an issue that he can run on? I think you're being generous. It's definitely a net plus for Republicans (being a tax and all) but in an area where transportation is such an issue, the case can be made that this is a user fee for roads...

 
At 10:10 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

The main point I'm making - it's a net plus for Republicans...but just barely. Not enough to swing a dem-leaning district.

 
At 1:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Vivian hasn't done anything to make people vote against her and this is a dem leaning district. Money isn't everything. Vivian will win.

 
At 1:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My comment: According to the stats on the main page here

This district is 0.9% more for Kerry than Chap's.

0.3% more for Warner

0.9% more for Kaine.

With the 37th being a tossup that everyone admits could go either way- can we stop saying Vivian wins because the district is so good? It isn't, it barely leans Democratic.

Vivian will have to win on her own feet. Here's the reality on her feet:

In 01 she got 53.9% or only 0.3% better than Mark Warner in this district. So if Kaine lost this district even 49.5-50.5 Vivian could be in deep trouble.

 
At 8:20 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Kaine lost this district, I would eat my left pinky finger.

 
At 8:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Some one take a look at his cash on hand this cycle vs. his cash on hand last cycle. He raise 30k but spent 27K. He's blowing all of it.

 
At 11:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Watts campaign slogan:

"Watts Turns Me On!"

 
At 11:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That bulb is going out this year. She's been lucky it went on this long.

 
At 4:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yawn. I guess you have to fill the "blog hole." Shannon in a walk.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home