Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Saturday, July 16, 2005

37th District Update (#2 on the Dirty Dozen)

Outlook: Toss Up

In Central Fairfax the 37th district held by J. Chapman Petersen has been the most wide open of any race in the state. Emerging from contested primaries were David Bulova, son of Fairfax County Supervisor Sharon Bulova and John Mason, the former Mayor of Fairfax City.

Recent finance reports suggest a slow start from the June primaries with both candidates only having about $10,000 on hand as of June 30th.

In 1997 this district gave Jack Rust his first full term by an identical percentage to the statewide Gilmore victory. In 2001 it gave J. Chapman Petersen a victory by an identical percentage to the statewide Warner victory. If that trend continues John Mason has the early edge here, which is why we give Mason the top line on the right side of the page.

At the start of this race, we told you this district had more questions than any other which made it difficult to figure out. Here's what the questions were, and the answers we have 3 months later.

#1- Will the Democratic Nominee have popular Delegate Petersen on the ballot with them in November (unlikely, but a potential boost to the Democratic Nominee).

Nope. Advantage Mason.

#2- Will Fairfax City continue it's tradition of crushing Democratic nominees from outside the City, when their opponent is from the City? Under that scenario the string of losses for Democrats inside the City is long and unbroken.. from Emilie Miller in 3 Senate elections in 83, 87, and 91, Sally Ormsby in 87 and 89 for Delegate, Les Schoene in 97 for Delegate and Leslie Byrne in 99 for Senate. In all of these elections where the Republicans had a City candidate, and the Democrats did not, Republicans won the City by more than 2-1 (remarkable in an otherwise evenly divided area). Republicans used that margin to win every Delegate race above, but in the Senate contests where the City is only 10% of the district Democrats Miller and Byrne both won once.

Still Unknown. Toss Up.

#3- How will #1 effect #2? Would the City split it's votes between Petersen and Mason, or would Petersen have coattails? The likely answer is coattails, looking at the 2003 elections you can see Petersen's impact on the Senate race between Christian and Devolities. His coattails nearly provided the upset of the year. But again, that requires Petersen winning the primary statewide.

Doesn't matter now. Advantage Mason.

#4- Is there any difference between nominating Bulova or Oleszek for the Democrats? A major one, Bulova will be stronger in Fairfax County, especially Braddock District where his mother has served for over 20 years. Oleszek will be stronger in the City, since the County schools also run the schools in Fairfax City, and she is less antagonizing then the son of a County Supervisor.

Bulova carried both the City and County in the primary, although Oleszek did run better in the City. That is a boost for him in November. Advantage Bulova.

#5- Will Kaplan get out of Mason's way or will he force a primary?

He forced a primary. Mason would have a much stronger financial advantage if Kaplan had gotten out of the way. Advantage Bulova.

#6- Exactly how popular is Mason? He won big for 15 years as Mayor of Fairfax City, then was hammered in his 2003 re-election by almost a 2-1 margin. The issue was development, and if that was really the case, Mason should be ok in his comeback. If the issue was arrogance and the fact voters got tired of him, this will be uphill.

Still Unknown. Toss Up.

Of our six questions that would determine a winner two went to Mason, two went to Bulova and two are still unknown. That sounds like a toss up!

20 Comments:

At 8:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Tough race for Bulova, city will be tough if not impossible. These guys gotta run an unbelievable field program. My question is, does Warner think this is work $80,000?

 
At 8:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mason's report is available on sbe site. Almost half of his donors are Chap people. Is Chap for Mason!?!

 
At 9:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No, Chap is for sale.

 
At 9:25 PM, Anonymous roanoker said...

Chap is not for sale! He was an excellent candidate

 
At 9:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

no chap is not for mason, chap is a democrat you moron. it's more in the sense of fairfax city people being for their own. get a clue.

 
At 9:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

in fact, chap has it out for mason after mason supported russ in his first election, dam get a clue.

 
At 10:14 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

2 comments deleted. Stay on topic please.

 
At 12:15 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chap supported Russ Potts? What does that have to do with John Mason?

 
At 1:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're missing a demographic shift in this district... the district is much more Democratic than it may appear... with a sizeable GLBT population moving in and a lot of population growth in the Fairfax County portion among young professionals who are much more socially liberal. Bulova should win this one.

 
At 9:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

GLBT is not a factor here..they do not vote, especially in non-presidential races. Do agee more are moving to Fairfax county all the time though...

 
At 11:18 AM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Wait a second...are there really a bunch of transexuals moving into Fairfax County?

I challenge that statement, sir!

 
At 12:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ben Tribbett knows this district well.

See:

http://www.vpap.org/cands/cand_vendorssvcs2.cfm?ToKey=COM00557&CycleID=2001&ExpCode=P100

 
At 11:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd of voted for Chap....if I knew that he stood for anything besides the advancement of his own political career...

 
At 11:10 AM, Anonymous TLM said...

Dear VA Centrist: In case you were serious (doubt it),GLBT is a broad term to define several similar communities defined by sexual or gender orientation...and yes, you will find some of each in Fairfax County.

Note: Mr. Young, just give it a rest, OK. We know, we know, more lies from the big gay conspiracy and RGA...etc. We're all dying and going to Hell...yadda, yadda, yadda.

 
At 11:11 AM, Anonymous TLM said...

Sorry, Meant to say "link" not "define" several similar communities...

 
At 11:44 AM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

I wasn't serious.

 
At 4:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

12:15 AM anon: I think that 9:44PM anon meant Rust, not Russ. Chap defeated Jack Rust in 2001 and 2003.

 
At 4:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

romance virginia

 
At 6:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.adquity.com
Classifieds for our community. Buy, sell, trade, date, events... post anything. Adquity Classifieds.

http://www.adquity.com

 
At 5:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://www.adquity.com
Classifieds for our community. Buy, sell, trade, date, events... post anything. Adquity Classifieds.

http://www.adquity.com

 

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