Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Thursday, July 07, 2005

35th District Update (#10 on the Dirty Dozen)

Outlook: Leans Democratic

Now that the nastiest GOP primary in the state is over with, Republican Jim Hyland has begun to bring the party together. Republicans see opportunity here in the district that has been most likely to toss incumbents out on their ass. Since 1990 it has had Delegates McDermott, Fisher, Lovelace, Devolities and Shannon with Senators Miller, Woods, Byrne, and Devolities.

Right now the best thing going for incumbent Steve Shannon is his amazing fundraising. Steve has clearly decided the way to get re-elected is to sit on a pile of money and drown out his opponent in October. It worked for him in 2003 in the open seat race.

If Hyland's fundraising is strong on the July 15th report we may move this one back up the "Dirty Dozen". If Hyland gets money, this one could get ugly fast.

14 Comments:

At 9:10 AM, Anonymous Ron said...

I thought the 67th District had the nastiest Republican primary. Now I'm jealous!
;-)

 
At 10:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is it really necessary to curse in your posts?

 
At 12:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I doubt Hyland has much money he just ran a primary being outspent 4-1 and with all kinds of folks helping his opponent because they thought they were on the winning side.

Hyland's fundraising later in the year is likely to be more telling. But, heck he won by 12 points being outspent 4-1 in the primary - maybe this guy has something.

 
At 12:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Shannon is favored this seat Leans Republican. Correct this NLS.

 
At 1:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

why does this seat lean Republican if Shannon is favored? Shannon's the Democrat....

 
At 1:32 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

That might be some obnoxious person trying to claim that Shannon is "Republican-lite" or something stupid like that because he voted party line 95% of the time instead of 100%.

 
At 1:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS,

I don't understand why you keep putting so much stock in July 15th reports for primary winners. Most of those guys will not show the fruits of significant fundraising efforts until the next reporting period.

I expect unimpressive fundraising reports from all but one or two primary winners. But I don't think that says anything about the strength of those campaigns or their ability to raise $$ (particularly given the timing of the period end--only 2 weeks after the primary). Others in the know agree. Just curious why you have a different opinion...

 
At 2:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah another thing to remember is that this report only includes 1 month of fundraising.

 
At 2:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"The best thing going for incumbent Shannon is his amazing fundraising." I agree, money is nice. But the best thing going for Shannon is that he talks- and more importantly, listens to- his constituents, gets back to them, responds to their concerns, hosts town hall meetings, works incredibly hard and is willing to attend every single little coffee or neighborhood association meeting to which he is invited.

 
At 2:47 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

1:52 anon- Great question.

I don't expect Hyland to suddenly catch Shannon in cash on hand. But it is important to see him start to generate much better numbers as the nominee then he did as a candidate for the nomination. Remember in 6 months, he raised $40,000. He would need almost 5 times that in the next few months- just to catch Shannon as of today. If Hyland doesn't do that then this may start looking like a real uphill fight.

 
At 9:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can't wait until we get to the competitve races. Does anyone who reads this actually believe that Shannon will not win?

It is boring to read about races that are already clear but I understand that NLS has space to fill - it is a long year.

 
At 9:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is the purpose of this blog to inflate the egos of the anonymous bloggers.

"Worst blog ever."

 
At 2:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just a small correction to your Senate listings... before redistricting, part of the district was in the 32nd Senate District (Senator Howell's District)... I know that's a trivial point, but I figured you like always being 100% accurate... :-)

 
At 2:17 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Good Point.

 

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