Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Wednesday, July 06, 2005

10th District Update (#11 on the dirty dozen)

Outlook: Leans Democratic

The 10th district which runs near the North Carolina border is represented by Ward Armstrong. The district lines are a little shady, during the last redistricting the main "community of interest" in creating this district was drawing Barnie Day and Ward Armstrong into the same seat.

Having finished off Barnie, now the GOP is eyeing Ward. Because of the lack of a single issue or interest in this district the areas voted widely different in 2001. Ward is very strong in Henry and Martinsville and very weak in Carroll County. For the GOP to oust Ward they need to win a good margin in Patrick County (home of Barnie Day). Demographically this is more possible with the recent GOP movement in the area, George W. Bush won Patrick by more than a 2-1 margin.
With that in mind the GOP recruited Patrick County Supervisor David Young to challenge Armstrong. He's the right fit for pulling together a winning coalition here- if he has a strong campaign. As he just began the campaign a few weeks ago we will get our first idea of how strong he is with the July 15th campaign finance reports.

This race could move up the "Dirty Dozen" quickly if Young can get moving.

It's also important to note that off all the districts still on the competitive board on the right, Tim Kaine had a greater falloff from Mark Warner here than in any other district, a 6.2% difference. Tim Kaine will run worse in this seat then he does statewide. If he continues to trail by 10 points around the state he could be taking Ward with him when he leaves the Capitol in Janurary. On the other hand, if Tim's numbers improve statewide and he can break even here, Ward will be fine.


At 4:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Republicans can give it up....Ward will show close to 200K raised....they don't want the seat that bad. Plus the Republican does not like little league baseball...a bad thing in the 10th

At 5:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This race does come down to Patrick County. Carroll is GOP territory, Martinville-Henry is favorable to Armstrong. In 2001, Brett Geisler lost, but won Patrick by a whisker. Young needs to win Patrick outright and make a few inroads in Martinsville-Henry.

At 5:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Caroll County is GOP territory, but we had some shifts during the presidential election. Turnout was unexpectedly low, and it'll be interesting to see if the economic development issues in these counties affect turnout.

In Patrick, we saw some shifts in the local Dem party (especially at the school board level). Some of these new folks might not be out to pull for Ward. But who knows. It's an interesting race, but not a close one.

At 7:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Carroll County
Bush wins 8,173-3,888

Patrick County
Bush wins 5,507-2,532

Henry County
Bush win 13,358-9,851

Ward, do us a favor. Bend over. Then kiss your ass goodbye!

At 10:46 PM, Anonymous brutus said...

The last anon has a good point. That's why this race is one to watch. With such a strong GOP performance, Ward will always have to work hard against a decent challenger. And he's got one.

At 12:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wonder how Ward would anser the questin of who he supported for Presdient, and assuming it was Kerry, why he thought the vast majority of his constituents were wrong?

At 11:21 AM, Blogger Not Virgil Goode said...

The Republicans can win this one. Ward will really have to work to keep the seat. As far as money goes, The Repblicans usually have a bottomless pit.

At 11:49 AM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

True the Republicans have lots of money...but do they want to take the gamble when there are other seats in play? I doubt it. It takes work to raise money (even for Republicans) and 200K on Wards part is awsome and, I suspect, there is more where that came from.

At 2:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Remember though, the object is not to ouraise or outspend an opponent, but to raise what is needed to get your message out. Ward can raise 200k, 400k, or 1M, it doesn't matter. Young simply needs to raise what he needs to get his message out. In this district, that is likely around 100k, maybe less if you spend wisely.

At 4:53 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

2:43 anon...your point is well a degree....but Young's last reprot showed 7K. Unlike other Republicans he had no primary what his excuse for not being able to raise money? Is he waiting for Kirk Cox to send a check...I dont think the Republican Caucus is different from the Democratic Caucus when it comes to this point..that is both Caucuses want to see if the candidate can raise money and become viable...neither Caucus can afford to write a check to people who cannot help themselves

At 9:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ward Armstrong may be the best Democratic campaigner in the state. That is why he will win. He is just too good for his opponent.

He is smart, resourceful and likeable. These are the types of districts Republicans won to get the majority, however this incumbent is too strong. Yawn.

At 12:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NPG -- good point. we will see what the 7/15 report has. That will tell us a lot.

At 11:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ward has made enemies in the General Assembly with very stupid comments. He told the press that Danny Marshall was not running again, without ever checking with Delegate Marshall. He made sexist comments about a female Delegate and she and her husband have not forgotten. Look for a lot of his miscues over the years to come home and haunt him this year.


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