Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Monday, June 06, 2005

Updates

8 days from the primaries

23rd District:

Primary Outlook: Safe Bryant

We've called this primary and general election for incumbent Preston Bryant. However, the best radio ad of the year goes to his opponent Robert Garber. Click here to listen. LOL!

30th District

Primary Outlook: Toss Up (Slight Lean to Scott)

Two updates here. First, Ed Scott has done an excellent job mobilizing his Madison County base. Expect Madison to vote big for Scott on June 14th. However, Mark Jarvis looks competitive in Culpeper and Orange County is a tossup. We'll give this as a slight lean to Scott for now, but Jarvis can still win by taking Culpeper and Orange.

Our sources on the ground in the 30th tell us former Democratic Delegate Butch Davies is helping organize crossover votes for Scott in Culpeper.

37th District:

Democratic Primary Outlook: Toss Up (Old Rating: Leans Bulova)
Republican Primary Outlook: Leans Mason
General Election: Toss Up

We've heard that the Janet Oleszek campaign has got a lot of momentum going into the primary, with better mail and a more focused candidate on the ground. David Bulova is still ahead but as they come down the stretch Oleszek is moving faster. Should be a photo finish in the 37th.

Bulova would be a slight underdog to former Fairfax Mayor John Mason while Oleszek would be a tossup opponent for him. But Mason still has to survive an aggressive challenge by Jim Kaplan. We still think Mason has the edge here, but a GOP upset is also possible.

41st District:

Primary Outlook: Likely Golden
General Election: Toss Up

Michael Golden continues to cruise in his primary against Bill Finnerfrock. However, this has been one of the most targeted campaigns in the state. That's a good primary strategy, but we are surprised that Golden hasn't taken a bigger advantage of the opportunity to showcase himself for November. We'll know a lot about the Golden v. David Marsden race based on primary turnout on June 14th.

45th District:

Primary Outlook: Toss Up. Slight lean to Englin.

David Englin who has run the strongest grassroots campaign seems to have survived his potholes that hit last week. With the all the mud thrown at him, and none of it sticking we can now call Englin the slight favorite going into primary day.

54th District:

Primary Outlook: Toss Up.

Like the 30th District, the 54th has Democrats getting involved. Our sources tell us the Spotsyvania Democrats have been making calls asking D's to vote in the GOP primary for incumbent Bobby Orrock over challenger Shaun Kenney. This will make an already interesting race even more so.

75th District:

Primary Outlook: Toss Up (Slight Lean to Flowers)

The primary in the 75th is still wide open and the outcome will likely be decided by turnout in each County. However, Democratic candidate Jerry Flowers has to be seen as the slight favorite after getting the endorsement of popular Virginia Senator Louise Lucas.

30 Comments:

At 8:18 AM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

NLS:

Any sense of who the Dems. in the 54th wil vote for in the statewide races? With the LG race likely to be very close, this type of scenario in this district and similar ones could hvae an impact on the outcome.

 
At 8:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim Kaplan wins the 37th District GOP primary for Delegate.

Scoreboard: Doors Knocked:
Kaplan 5000+
Mason 0

Who wants this more and will fight a tough campaign all the way until November? KAPLAN

 
At 8:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, but who wins the sign wars?

 
At 8:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mason's signs are huge, but terribly designed. Hint: Red on Blue = Illegible.

Too bad for Kaplan that his and Bulova's designs are so similar.

 
At 8:57 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

I am offended! Robert Garber is obviously making fun of Jerry Kilgore's accent in his radio ad!

 
At 8:59 AM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

Thanks, NLS! The only favorite that matters is the one that emerges at 7:01PM next Tuesday - but it's nice to read that others are seeing what we've been feeling at the doors and on the phones.

Team Englin volunteers have knocked on over 20,000 doors and made thousands of phone calls. We've walked every single precinct in the district at least twice. We have done the work to talk to the voters in the 45th - those that always vote in Primaries and new ones, too. We've brought David's positive progressive campaign to the District and the voters are responding.

But it's all going to come down to Tuesday. If anybody reading this cares about the outcome of this race, you should send me an email and offer your time during the Final Four. info@davidenglin.org.

A Democrat will represent this seat no matter what, but there's still much at stake. Whoever wins this seat will have it until they no longer want to serve in it. David is the only candidate who has proven both commitment and ability to build the Democratic Party - he is the best choice for the future of this district and future of the Democratic Party.

NLS readers can made a difference no matter what district they live in - come on out and join Team Englin on the 14th. We've got plenty for you to do! info@davidenglin.org.

 
At 8:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chap has some great sign visibility here in NOVA. I'm voting for him, plus I heard Leslie is really a man.

 
At 9:27 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Mitch- No idea whether they will go for in the LG and AG races. If I had to guess.... not Bolling because he is the Senator from part of that area and not popular with Democrats. Also would guess not Kilgore just to give him a black eye. I don't think the calls being made suggest either, and I'm not sure about it at all.

 
At 9:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about the 35th is there any update on that race?

 
At 9:32 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

NMR- LOL!

 
At 9:36 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

35th- I am getting conflicting information. I'm keeping it as a tossup since both campaigns claim to have taken a lead. :)

 
At 10:31 AM, Blogger Kevin said...

I'm in the 35th..Monument Precinct...No Republican candidates have ANY visability over here. I've talked to my neighbors to get them out to vote. They are pretty much in the dark on all of the races. All I can say is keep overlooking this precinct and I'll help make it a solid Dem this year.

 
At 10:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kevin,

I don't live in the 35th and am not working for either candidate on the R side, but I have seen them out at several forums, candidate nights, and local festivals.

Having said all that, there is no excuse not to have walked your precinct. Have they done anything in Monument? Mailings? Phone calls? Robinson bought a rose for anyone on Mother's Day?

 
At 12:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

54th - Edd Houck's people are feeling some heat from the LG candidates for pushing crossover. Quiet heat, but heat nonetheless.

As for the GOP side of the fence, Orrock had yet another bad quote in the WaPo this morning.

'I hate to be arrogant, but they're going to be hard-pressed to get me,' Orrock said recently at the end of an afternoon knocking on doors. 'It's not impossible, but they'd be hard-pressed.'

C'mon. . .

 
At 12:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think a problem in the 54th and other districts pushing for crossover is that the Dem statewide campaigns have been dead in those areas. There's no noise to get them out for the Dem primary so they might as well go GOP.

 
At 12:54 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Excellent Point.

 
At 1:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon12:05 -

Can you elaborate on the "heat" that Edd Houck is getting. What kind of heat can Bill Bolling put on Edd Houck?

 
At 2:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

police protection. and lots of it. Ed Houck is pulling a blues brothers it looks like it.

 
At 3:20 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

LOL to that last anon.

1:52 anon- I think they meant the Dem LG candidates are putting heat on him for encouraging crossover.

NLS

 
At 3:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That Garber commercial was awful. I had to listen twice just to understand the guy. I have been to Lynchburg a number of times and have heard no one who sounds like that much of a hillbilly

 
At 3:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"But Mason still has to survive an aggressive challenge by Jim Kaplan. We still think Mason has the edge here, but a GOP upset is also possible."

Is this quote an admission that Kaplan is the GOP and Mason isn't? That seems to be part of Kaplan's message, too. I think it was in the WashPost article on the 37th.

 
At 3:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon1:52, don't get me wrong. Sen. Houck is smart for doing it. But it's not helping the "party faithful" so to speak. A vote in the GOP primary in the 54th or 30th is a vote taken away from Petersen, a guy who could hand either Bolling or Connaughton his lunch.

Personally I don't think crossover will be all that significant anywhere. Take today for instance. It's hotter than hell. You think a Dem is going to get up, claim a Republican ballot, and vote for some incumbent they don't really like anyway?

 
At 4:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah it sucks that we can't vote twice like most years...

 
At 4:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And I wonder how many Dems that do think to crossover are going to get to the polls and realize that there's a Dem race that's going on? Maybe folks pushing crossover are misleading voters by implying that there's nothing better they could be doing with there vote on election day. Yea, democracy in action...

 
At 6:50 PM, Anonymous Terry M said...

Just a note..I attended my annual Chief election officer training over the weekend and looks like there will be plenty of confusion at the polls with this primary. Voters have to declare which party primary they want to vote in and we have to keep track with TWO separate poll books and count sheets to make sure folks don't return to vote twice. Both ballots are on each machine so will need to be careful to pull up the right one. Mostly an admin issue for us, but bound to be mistakes...and voters who change their minds or give us a hard time with declaring a party..be careful out there folks.

 
At 6:59 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Terry there is a reason for that. The punchcard ballots have both choices on them downstate. People are told to only punch one parties choices (HAHAHA). By the way, when the numbers come out to make it clear people voted in BOTH, the counts will take forever as the overvotes are sorted out... that's another story. So then because of that the SBE said "Everyone has to be equal" so those on machines have to have both ballots on a machine (think of the old clunky Fairfax machines- thats what is used in some other counties). Now with a couple of counties having the SUPER hi tech machines (Fairfax, Arlington etc) where you put a card in, and it brings up the correct ballot for you. Problem with that is.... instead of having GOP and Dem machines, now every voter will have to get the officer to put the correct card in for them. Of course most election officers are 120 years old and can't see what color card you hand them.....

This is a disaster already.

 
At 12:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

David Englin has run one hell of a campaign, but it's a stretch to call him the favorite. In the last days, the writing on the wall is pretty clear: Libby Garvey has gained the support of loads of Democratic party leaders and actvists in all three jurisdictions (Alex., Arl., and Fairfax Co.), and has all but gained the blessing of the very well-liked Marian Van Landingham (all of her campaign managers have endorsed Libby). David has a promising future ahead of him, perhaps starting on city council, but I would not bet on him to win this race.

 
At 1:13 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Slight Favorite. I agree it could go either way. David has the mo though.

 
At 11:40 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's interesting that Lucas is supporting Flowers. Flowers hid as far away as he could from John Boyd when he ran for the Senate and John Boyd was on the ticket running for the Congress. Has Louise forgotten that Flowers was a Republican until he saw he could not get the GOP nomination ?

 
At 9:10 PM, Blogger johnny law said...

"54th - Edd Houck's people are feeling some heat from the LG candidates for pushing crossover. Quiet heat, but heat nonetheless."

Where are you people getting this information? Some alternate universe? Senator Houck's "people"? Like he has an entourage a la Mike Tyson?

Must be the same source that thinks a full time working law student in the District has the time, effort and influence to encourage crossover and distribute a certain Senator's voter lists to Bobby Orrock, while living fifty miles away. I mean, yes, it's a bit flattering to know that the Spotsy area GOP thinks I still have that kind of clout (as if I had any to begin with), but really, come on. It's absolutely absurd if you sit down and think about it.

Time for me to go back to Wills, Trusts & Estates, folks (and secretly plotting the demise of Shaun Kenney, bwahahahaha).

 

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