Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

Open Thread

Whatever you want to say about the election results tonight. Analysis, rants, whatever.

Read below for our calls as we make them

187 Comments:

At 7:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

my predictions were Byrne, McDonnell, and Connaughton. so far looks like I was two for three.

 
At 7:44 PM, Blogger Old Zach said...

How many victories will be enough for VCAP to claim victory? 1?

 
At 7:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

From a source in the Craddock campaign:

4 precincts reporting. Craddock wins them all.

Poplar Tree 72%
Stone 71%
Little River 70%
Green Briar East 64 %

Didn't recieve the raw vote totals.

 
At 7:56 PM, Blogger Old Zach said...

If NLS' picks hold up how does the Bolling-Byrne mathchup look to folks?

 
At 8:13 PM, Blogger Alex Ludd said...

r u sure?

Alex Ludd 4 president!

 
At 8:32 PM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Have you seen the new Arlington precinct results in the 45th? Garvey just picked up a boatload of votes, halving Englin's lead over her.

Englin's results in Alexandria are stunningly good, but if Garvey does as well in the last 2 Arlington precincts, it'll all come down to the Fairfax precincts, where no candidate has a particular advantage (and thus I'd say the pick of Englin as the winner is still a good one).

 
At 8:35 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Hi Maura, Fairfax is already in, just not on the SBE site.

NLS

 
At 8:36 PM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Ah...okay. And I see that all the arlington precincts are reporting on the Arlington page but not the 45th summary page of the SBE site, so Englin's definitely a lock.

Woo hoo!

BTW, do you have another source for results other than SBE and your roving correspondents?

 
At 8:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's Fairfax's link

http://www.co.fairfax.va.us/gov/eb/webreports/results_bypct.htm

 
At 8:55 PM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Thanks for the Fairfax link.

It was close for a fun while, but it looks like Algie Howell is safe at this point. Gonna call it?

 
At 8:56 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Yes, sorry, I was waiting for one precinct outside of Norfolk. Will do it now.

 
At 8:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Virginia Beach results are here: http://www.vbgov.com/default/

Purkey wins in the 82nd, Wardrup in the 83rd. I think it probably puts Howell over the top in the 90th too.

 
At 9:00 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Will do, thanks anon

 
At 9:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

and it looks like Tyler has pulled ahead in the 75th.

 
At 9:27 PM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Richmond results for the 74th? Anyone, anyone? Bueller? Bueller?

 
At 9:28 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

All I have to say is that Bolling and Byrne deserve each other.

 
At 9:28 PM, Blogger ESQ-JD said...

I can't believe we picked Byrne. That's gonna hurt Kaine...

 
At 9:41 PM, Blogger Kevin said...

I think I did pretty well on my predictions...



I could be very wrong next time...

 
At 10:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

For what it's worth on the 74th ...

Right now, it's
Miles - 1,692
McEachin - 1,682

That's with 0 of 2 precincts for Richmond City, 38 of 38 for Charles City, Henrico, and Hopewell.

 
At 10:15 PM, Blogger Bob Griendling said...

Bottom line: Big loss for anti-taxers and the press that think every race is about taxes.

 
At 10:32 PM, Blogger Kevin said...

My website didn't show...

http://tomjoadsplace.blogspot.com

I agree with the poster that said this is a huge hit for the anti-tax folks...Caputo it going to kick some Craddock butt in November. He is too conservative for his district.

 
At 10:55 PM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Kevin, those were some pretty great predictions you made on your site.

Now what on earth is going on in Richmond!?!?

 
At 10:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I knew that the Democrats would be stupid enough to nominate Leslie Byrne (being a member of that party), but I didn't think Republicans were that stupid, too! Don't you guys know that Sean Connaughton scared the s$&# out of us? The guy could have won any statewide campaign.

 
At 11:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Word from Richmond is that McClellan won big! :)

 
At 11:41 PM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Ummm...okay? Did everyone in Richmond just decide to go home to bed and then come back and count ballots tomorrow?

 
At 11:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think I just lost a little respect for the Democratic powerhouse 45th going with Englin, Garvey and the others had a good run though

 
At 11:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not sure if you're done for the evening--but Richmond's finally in.

McEachin 1770 def. Miles 1722
(30 of 30 pcts)

McClellan 2245 crushing Law 1174 (21 of 27 pcts)

 
At 11:51 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Agreed. Connaughton would be automatic governor in 09 if they'd nominated them. Instead, they nominated Bolling, who will crush Byrne and present a problem in 09 when he runs for Governor as a representative of the wacko party.

 
At 12:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

2009 may have a real fight for GOP governor - McDonnell, Bolling and Paul Trible - should make great copy for the news junkies.

 
At 6:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is the real question on Bolling and Byrne...

Byrne was drawn out of her seat in a bipartisan show of revilement. Had redistricting been done on a seat by seat vote, it would have been 39-1 to send Leslie packing.

Bolling is little more loved ny his colleagues. The Democrats think he is a putz. Most of the Republicans cannot stand him. At least half of the Senate GOP did not even endorse him.

So how many Senators skip voting for LG in November given they find both choices completely and utterly appalling.

 
At 6:48 AM, Blogger Hirons said...

Bolling and Bryne will at least be the engines that bring out the party faithful for each side. The Gov's race will probably be pretty boring. All the smears, attacks, mud, eye scratching and hair pulling will be going on for the number two slot.

Interesting question of the day - who wins the R. primary (or convention) for Gov. in '09 - Bolling or McDonnell? My guess - McDonnell in a primary - Bolling in a convention.

 
At 8:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd say McDonnell in a primary or a convention.

 
At 9:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore '09. Book it.

 
At 10:06 AM, Anonymous Fmr VA Hack said...

Arent yall forgetting Paul Harris?

 
At 10:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

re: the 54th - It was a hard fought race against a 16 year incumbant that outspent his opponent 5-1 but Dem crossover (thanks in a large part to the VEA) and a last minute false Allen endorsement helped secure Orrock his next turn. But 55-45 is not a bad turnout considering Kenney was a 27 year old with next to no name recognition at the begining of the year. The Conservative voice has spoken, Orrock had to bend the rules to stay, but hopefully he'll listen to his constituents and start voting like a Republican. If not, we'll probably see this all over again in two years.

 
At 10:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't be too fast to hand this one to Caputo in the 67th. This district is very conservative. It is a stronghold for Ken Cuccinelli and if Craddock is at all smart in running a campaig, he will defeat Caputo.

 
At 11:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anti-taxers: 1 out 17

What an investment!!

 
At 11:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous one said...

BTW I would have to seriously agree with the comment by the anonymous person who said that the Republicans are pretty stupid because Connaughton sacred the living sh-t out of us Dems...Well I cross voted just to vote against Connaughton because I did not want him to win, its good to see that the Republicans did the same thing. Also I would not count Byrne out yet, if she manages to do her job of having huge turnout in NOVA with no GOP candidate from NOVA, then this could help our ticket tremendously. Also you have to consider that 18% of Republicans did not vote for Kilgore meaning that they could be potential swing voters that helped Warner win and might help Kaine-Byrne-Deeds win because of the conservativeness of the GOP ticket, I mean if they got any further right they would fall of the side of the Earth which most of them still believe is flat...

 
At 11:22 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

I have to disagree with anonymous on the assessment of Shaun Kenney in the 54th. This guy was the chairman of the local GOP. He had name recognition. 55-45 seals his fate - if he could not beat Bobby Orrock in a whipsaw primary where all the chips were stacked in his favor, then he's done.

 
At 11:24 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

PS - NLS, looks like my patron got more quotes in the Washington Post this morning than yours did (3 vs. 1).

Could the media pendulum be swinging away from Sabato and toward Rozell? Only time will tell...

 
At 11:46 AM, Anonymous Greg Werkheiser said...

A friend suggested that I visit this blog for coverage of yesterday's primary. I found your collective contributions to be very informative and often entertaining. Thanks for putting in the time and effort.

 
At 11:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

nmr - In his favor? He was outspent 5-1, Dem crossover was HUGE (and even noted in the Free Lance Star) and he had 12% name recognition in the district as of Jan 1st. He made a 16 year incumbant sweat when it should have been an Orrock cakewalk. Nothing was handed to Kenney, he was abandoned by VCAP (none of the manpower promised), he was hindered by an 11th hour Allen endorsement LIE and Dems on all sides (NEA, Houck, Sorros) telling their people to turn out for a Republican primary.

Kenney's not done, he's just getting started.

 
At 11:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

One final comment about the 45th:

After all of that, it turned out Dick Hobson actually DID have a web page. Too bad no one ever noticed.

http://www.hobsonfordelegate.org

 
At 12:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

fmr va hack,

I see Harris running for AG in '09 not Gov. Bolling and McDonnell could get thrown for a loop if Gilmore tries to make a comeback instead of going for the Senate in '08. As far as LG goes, who knows? How about Cuccinelli or Chairwoman Kate?

 
At 12:25 PM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

You guys did a fantastic job with this site. Many thanks.

 
At 1:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Cuccinelli for Att Gen. or Lt. Gov in '09!!!

 
At 1:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

THe site got mentioned in Mike Shears washington post chat

 
At 1:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hmmm. I wonder why?

 
At 2:42 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Gilmore has very high negatives. I can see him running again, but it will be a disaster in NoVa and Hampton Roads. McDonnell might be able to beat him if he keeps his head down and doesn't do anything too stupid. Bolling doesn't stand a chance.

 
At 2:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

last anon- whatcha mean?

 
At 3:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore wouldn’t have much luck in Richmond either. We still remember his governorship unfortunately.

 
At 3:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How about a listing of the most exciting house races for Nov now?

 
At 3:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with NMR's comments re: Gilmore and McDonnell and that Bolling does not have a chance. I can't speak for Hampton Roads, but Gilmore needs to sit down and rebuild relationships with the NOVA activists and business community.

 
At 3:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore is poison. Bring him on.

 
At 3:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Gilmore couldn't be elected dog catcher in VA at this point.

 
At 3:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

45th district/Englin victory - is this a story? Is there something bigger going on here re the candidate of the local dem machine being well-beaten by an upstart?

 
At 4:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS-I cannot tell you how great of a job you did with this site yesterday; I was checking it all day and all night. Now that the filing deadline has passed, I'm hoping that you will post soon on the remaining House races.

 
At 4:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In Arlington/Alexandria, Democrats always rally behind the nominee (not one Republican represents either jurisdiction other than statewide officials)... but frequently the candidate endorsed by most of the "machine" loses. In 2003, Andres Tobar has most of the endorsements, yet came in third, losing to Adam Ebbin (49th). Margo Horner had most of the endorsements (Arlington Commissioner of the Revenue), yet lost to Ingrid Morroy. Then Arlington County Board candidate Al Eisenberg had all of the endorsements, but came in third in the special election, losing to Walter Tejada. This time, Libby Garvey and Elsie Mosqueda had all the endorsements... but Englin had the votes. This is pretty typical up here.

 
At 5:40 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Someone said this earlier:

"Don't be too fast to hand this one to Caputo in the 67th. This district is very conservative. It is a stronghold for Ken Cuccinelli and if Craddock is at all smart in running a campaig, he will defeat Caputo."

We'll cover this race soon... it has some interesting contrasts.

Also, to answer old Zach's question from the top:

How many victories will be enough for VCAP to claim victory? 1?

Based on what they said today, apparently they didn't even need one to declare victory. They are just trying to stay in incumbents minds..... that will make the donations flow.

 
At 5:41 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

The last comment was sarcastic if you didn't get it. :)

 
At 7:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good point, 4:49. But the Democrats Against Moran site

http://democratsagainstmoran.blogspot.com

also makes the point today that 30% of the vote is not exactly a victory against the machine. In a two way race between Garvey and Englin, it's very likely that Garvey would have had even more support, and could have won as much as 60% of the vote.

 
At 9:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Englin won the Alexandria precincts 2-to-1 over Garvey. He had more votes than Libby and Elsie COMBINED in the Alexandria precincts, which is where 70% of the voters in the district are. He did that even with MVL having her people calling through her lists telling them who to vote for.

Englin won the Fairfax precincts with almost 40% of the vote, even with every Fairfax elected official actively backing Libby and strongarming voters at the polling places. A two-way race would have been closer, but Englin still would have taken it.

He's a better candidate, with better ideas, who ran a MUCH better campaign.

 
At 9:47 AM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

Seems to me that the only races worth following now are:

Mason/Bulova
Caputo/Craddock
Albo/Werkheiser
Marsden/Golden
Keister/forget the name here
Frederick/Barg
Ball/Miller

Second tier but could get interesting

Shannon/Hyland
Lapetina/Barlow
Wittman/I forget the name
Fulk/Lohr
Young/Armstrong

I predict that after the General Election that there will be a no net change.

Republicans will pick up the Keister, Petersen and Pollard seats. Democrats will take the Reese, Frederick and Dillard seats. Lots of money spent. No progress made by either side. Only the consultants will benefit this year.

 
At 10:00 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

I agree with most of your picks, but I don't think the Dems will pick up Frederick's seat. The kid has very few friends in Richmond and is a well-known egotist, but Barg isn't exactly Harry Byrd incarnate either. I think this will stay in the "R" column.

I wouldn't count Werkheiser out yet. Albo has racked up too many negatives in his time. I think Albo will pull it out in the end, but this is going to be one painful race to watch.

 
At 10:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not from Northern VA, so I'm hoping someone with knowledge of the area could comment on my question: I was surprised that Parrish did as poorly as he did (under 55%) against Chapman. Could Parrish have lost on Tuesday against a stronger opponent?

 
At 10:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ha - NMR: do you mean this?

 
At 10:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

On the Parrish question: I think that in some cases, the negative publicity helped Chapman. He could frame himself as the victim of a smear campaign. And it actually drove his name rec. up too...sometimes any publicity is good publicity!

 
At 11:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I work for a local prosecutor. Several prosecutors asked for the Albo bill. We were having problems convicting child molesters on the more serious charges because of the evidence required. The Albo bill was intended to give us an intermediate charge so we could start getting these guys off the streets even if we didn't have an airtight case. I'm sorry to see this being used as a political weapon, because it was introduced with good intentions.

 
At 11:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hairpiece--

Fulk/Lohr is definitely not second tier. That will be a pick up for the Dems. Fulk wins with over 53%. If it's second tier it's because Lohr will fade over the summer

 
At 11:32 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Yes, hairpiece's picks are horrible.

 
At 11:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

On Parrish, the basic answer is YES. Had someone with more experience run against him, he would have lost. But as has been written in many of the blogs, that is the power of incumbancy. It is extremely difficult to get an experienced opponent of the party to run against an incumbant.

Also, all you guys writing off the 67th to Caputo are reacting too quickly. Caputo has not done anything in the past except run a failed campaign against the Republican Supervisor in his district. At least Craddock has won a campaign. The 67th is a very conservative district. The only liberal to win here was the school board member and that is a non-partisan election where they can hide fairly easily. If Craddock takes advice from others in his area in running a campaign (Cuccinelli, Obrien, Hugo, to name a few), he will beat Caputo.

In my opinion, if the Dems really wanted to win the 67th they would have waited out the primary to see if Reese were to win. If he would have won, they wouldn't have run anyone because he was the candidate of most Dems in the district anyway. If he had lost (as he of course did), they could have instead recruited him to run as a Dem. I bet he would have taken them up on their offer.

For evidence of the situation in the district consider the following. Reese won the open primary for his seat about 4 years ago against two conservatives 40% to 30% to 30%. His opponents literally split the conservative vote. In the general, I believe he won 60% - 40%. There's a large conservative movement in the 67th. Also in evidence it's one of Cuccinelli's strongest districts of support. You might want to revise your predictions.

 
At 12:32 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I am working on a post on the 67th now. I want to be clear, I have not been predicting a Caputo victory.

 
At 12:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Prosecutor (11:25am):

Let me get this straight. Albo tells everyone that this bill doesn't lower the penalty for child molestation. In fact, he screams it at the top of his lungs.

And now you're telling us that not only does Albo's bill do so, but it does so ON PURPOSE!!!?!?!

And by the way - the bill allowed sex offenders to get off with a fine. Let me check the dictionary. Ahh yes, here it is. A fine is not the same thing as putting them in prison.

They certainly wouldn't be off the streets - but some prosecutor would get to add another "convicted child molester" to his notches on his belt. Even though they were still roaming the streets.

You guys are pathetic.

 
At 1:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS - one thing I don't understand...why do you rate Steve Shannon's race so high? With Shannon's money advantage, do the others really stand a chance?

 
At 1:03 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

We'll be back on that one soon. Interesting things going on in Vienna...

 
At 1:17 PM, Anonymous nova democrat said...

NLS - you haven't commented on the fact that Albo's being hounded by three fairly conservative groups (PROTECT/Concerned Women for America/SCAN) about a bill he proposed last year. This is exactly what the commenter in the other thread is talking about - we need more issue discussion on here.

 
At 1:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS, something else just occurred to me about the 67th. Reese must have really been on the outs in the Party. He garnered 40% of the vote in his first primary bid four years ago and won. In his second he only garnered 34% against a 26 year old soccer coach.

 
At 1:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey 9:06, go back and check your numbers. Libby lost by 366 votes. Had either Mosqueda or Mandala not been there, she would have won easily, because the overwhelming majority of those 800-odd votes would have gone to her. Had she been the only woman in the race, she would have won a landslide, because you're then talking about an extra 1200 votes for Libby. Be happy for your candidate, he earned it. Just don't get carried away.

 
At 2:24 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Anonymous: I’m still trying to figure out where the beef is on this Albo bill.

I went to the legislature's web site and found the bill. It is HB1054 from the 2004 session. I read the original bill. It was the bill that was intended to incorporate the US Supreme Court's ruling in Lawrence v. Texas into Virginia law (that's the sodomy case).

Go look at the language of the bill Albo introduced. The penalties for child abuse were not changed at all. It's right there in black and white. Is there something I’m missing?

 
At 2:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NMR: Let's clear some things up here.

No one is disputing that the bill lowers the penalty for child molestation (except Albo, every other day). Go read what the guy in the prosecutor's office said above. Look at what Protect said. Their press release cites different parts of the bill that accomplish what we're talking about here.

Essentially what the bill does is it establishes a lower penalty where child molesters can be convicted while leaving the other laws on the book. Of course, we all know that this means many child molesters will get off with a fine and little else...if they don't plea bargin down to less than that.

This type of tactic is often slipped into bills by former prosecutors turned legislators to help their prosecutor friends increase their conviction rate. But it sells the victims short. If we need to overhaul child protection laws to make it easier to convict, then so be it. But we don't need to lower the penalty and let these people stay on the streets more often than not.

Another example of what this bill does:

Lowering the penalty for carnal knowledge in correctional facility:

§ 18.2-387.1. Carnal knowledge in correctional facility prohibited.

Any person who engages in any act of carnal knowledge as defined in § 18.2-63 in any local or state correctional facility or facility detaining or incarcerating juveniles is guilty of a Class 1 misdemeanor.

A class 1 misdemeanor for molesting a juvenile in a prison facility?

The biggest problem I have with this whole thing is that Albo hasn't been honest. He tell people, "I don't know what you're talking about!" or "PROTECT is a bunch of scam artists". I'm not sure why we're supposed to believe that. When Albo's bill had a problem, PROTECT was willing to work with him to clear it up. Instead, he stubbornly fought for it and they went public.

 
At 2:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

On that last point: lots of bills have problems. And they get cleared up. Sometimes bills have ridiculous consequences that legislators can't forsee because nobody is perfect.

The issue here is that Albo refused to admit his mistake and threw a hissy fit. Very unbecoming of a Delegate...

 
At 3:16 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

If this does create a parallel statute, I have to agree with the guy from the prosecutor's office - would you prefer that these people are walking the streets or that they are convicted of a lesser offense? Plea bargaining can be a tactic to increase a prosecutor's convictions, but it can also be an effective way to get a conviction when the evidence won't otherwise support it. That's why we have murder 1, murder 2, and so on. I'm not sure reform would help much, since you need a certain level of evidentiary support for criminal convictions - reform won't necessarily change that.

One interesting point about molesting juveniles in a detention facility: there is currently no provision in Virginia dealing with this. It would have been a new offense. PROTECT seems to admit that in their press release.

I still don't see how your claims are borne out in the language of the bill. If you can step me through it, I'll believe it. But telling me that "everyone" believes it is not enough, especially when I can't find the support for your claims anywhere in the legislation.

 
At 3:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey 1:29 - you go back and check your numbers. Had Jim Lay and Laura Mandala dropped out of the race, Englin's numbers would have gone up. Had there been fewer Alexandrians in the race, Englin's numbers there could have been even better.

The what ifs are pointless. Who the hell knows what would have happened had there been fewer or more candidates in the race. all of the dynamics would have been different.

I knocked on doors for Englin, and was shocked by the number of people who told me they were torn between him and Hobson. I never would have thought that Hobson would take votes from Englin or vice versa, but I talked to at least a dozen people that proved me wrong. It's impossible to say where the other votes would have gone to, and ridiculous to suggest that all 1200 would have gone to Garvey.

Your gal lost, and big, despite dumping money into paid canvassers and phoners at the end. Get over it and move along - now's the part where we all come together, right?

 
At 3:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NMR: You're talking about plea bargining down to a fine. For a child molester. What's wrong with this picture? Here's what's wrong: A fine doesn't involve prison time. You're letting child molesters off with a fine.

I don't need to walk you through it - I explained it as best I can. It creates another way for child molesters to be prosecuted - at a lower penalty. I'm not a lawyer or a prosecutor, but the guy above is, and he admitted as much.

 
At 3:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Englin/Garvey people: Chill out.

 
At 4:02 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Yes, I'd prefer they have a felony conviction on their record than go free because the prosecution lacks the evidence to convict them for the higher felony. Sometimes those are the lose-lose decisions you have to make in life. If your preference is to have them walk away scot-free, I guess I can't argue with that.

 
At 4:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NMR: I know what you're saying. But this sort of thing wouldn't happen with other types of crimes. They have consistently raised the penalty for things like DUI or drug dealing. Yes, a law like this would provide prosecutors with other options.

But it would also give defendants who are truly guilty of heinous crimes the leverage to stay out of prison and stay on the streets. How many more cases that could be tried would be plea bargained because now prosecutors had an easier option?

Sexual criminals are often repeat offenders. We need them off the streets.

 
At 4:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No, no, no. The anonymous confession from this "prosecutor" makes no sense. If he has a case where he cannot prove child rape, there is nothing stopping him from charging lesser crimes he CAN prove like "indecent liberties." This happens every day: you can't prove attempted murder, so you charge assault and battery.

What Albo tried to do was actually make rape and sodomy against children the minor crime! He tried to REDEFINE the crime of custodial indecent liberties (which historically was the most minor of the sex offenses) to include rape and sodomy.

Here's an example. Say you have a guy that you believe raped a child. If you can prove it, you'd want to charge rape. If you can't, you'd charge him with a lesser crime like indecent liberties, so that you'd at least get some conviction. "Not Mark Rozzell" got that part right.

But under Albo's bill, the guy could have a mountain of evidence showing he raped a child and STILL be charged with indecent liberties... as long as he was in a "CUSTODIAL OR SUPERVISORY" relationship with his victim.

Please follow this, it's shocking but true. Albo didn't just try to add rape and sodomy to the list of "indecent liberties" for everyone. Just "custodial indecent liberties" (yes, Virginia makes the distinction...) That's family members, clergy, teachers, etc.

Why would anyone do this? Because when child sexual predators like these get into court with aggressive criminal defense lawyers like Albo and lazy prosecutors like "Anonymous" what usually happens is they argue it wasn't really a heinous crime... it was just family dysfunction, or a forbidden "love affair"... not really "rape." They'll often say the "breadwinner" should stay in the house, or the "family" shouldn't be torn apart. A guy like Albo gets his "client" off easy, the prosecutor gets a conviction and the child gets to go home with the monster that raped her.

THAT was the Albo bill.

And BTW, there is a law on the books for sexual assault of a juvenile in detention. Albo was adding a new, weaker one. Tough guy!

 
At 4:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Last anonymous: Said it better than I could have, in my bumbling stumbling rants!

 
At 5:06 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

This is not a good issue for Werkheiser in my opinion. Here's why

Let's just say for argument's sake it is true. 100% true what people are saying about Albo trying to lower the penalties for this hideous crime.

No voter is going to believe it. When he gets attacked for it they will think it is an unfair attack. Sometimes this is how the most extreme members (I'm not saying Albo- in general) get re-elected, because no one believes they are really that extreme.

Just my thoughts on the politics of it.

 
At 5:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually 3:21, it's not ridiculous at all to suggest that two women candidates dropping out of the race would have resulted in 3/4 of their votes going to the remaining woman candidate.

Your gloating over a 30% result as if it was 60% is what is ridiculous. In a runoff, which is what should happen anyway in a six-way race, you would have seen what I'm talking about.

I have no problem getting behind David Englin. Like I said before, he earned it. But he did not win anywhere near a majority, so you volunteers may want to tone it down a bit. Gloating is not the way to come together.

 
At 5:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Actually 3:21, it's not ridiculous at all to suggest that two women candidates dropping out of the race would have resulted in 3/4 of their votes going to the remaining woman candidate."

It is equally wrong to vote for someone based upon gender, as to not vote for someone based upon gender. While I know that some people do just that, I think they are a small minority.

I don't live in the 45th, and I am not a Democrat, but I did follow that race and was impressed by Team Englin. He should bring all that energy to the job, and fight hard for your district.

 
At 6:58 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

NLS: I agree completely. I happen to believe that it's 100% true (the bill he put in lowered the penalty for child molestation). But this issue is SOOOO crazy that voters will react with shock and disgust for bringing it up.

It's sad that Virginia politicians have gotten so crazy and out there that we can't even bring up the radical bills they submit...people will be "turned off"!!!

 
At 9:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

When's this primary election thing you guys have been talking about? Is it over?

And is there a secondary election some time soon?

 
At 9:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I heard Dave Albo prints out hundreds of copies of HB751, puts them on the floor in his home, and rolls around in them on his back like a crocodile in heat.

 
At 10:07 PM, Anonymous Waldo Jaquith said...

There's no question what Albo's bill accomplishes -- it lowers the penalty for child rape if it's committed by somebody in the child's circle of trust.

Greg Werkheiser would have to be truly incompetent not to be able to make hay out of this, if he wanted to. I have a very difficult time believing that even a passably-competent media consultant couldn't turn this into a major negative for Albo.

 
At 10:44 PM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

Fulk/Lohr is completely second tier. Fulk got close last time because the district was completely done with Weatherholtz personally. With him gone, the district returns to form and is solidly GOP. Fulk gets 45% at best.

 
At 6:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not Larry Sabato has a point that Albo's bill has a believability problem. (That's why the media rolled over when Albo denied everything. Actually reading the bill was too hard.) But I think Waldo Jaquith is right: a decent media consultant could produce devastating ads. Only Democrats would wring their hands and shrink from an opportunity like this.

 
At 9:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Even if it is true...the believability factor is key here. I mean what sort of rationale will the media consultant give the ad to create some reality to it. Are people going to simply accept that Albo made a completely abberrant vote because he lost his mind all of a sudden? What motivation that is grounded in something that is believable is the consultant going to bring to the table?

 
At 9:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hairpiece-- I actually live in the district and am not colored by the NOVA bias toward what is and is not an important or competitive race. Lohr will be lucky if he can turn this into a tier 1.

 
At 9:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

5.52, you certainly have a point. But not being a Democrat, and not living in the 45th, I think you don't have the best understanding of how women's issues work in our party, and how important those issues were to many voters in the district. One of the candidates was a founding member of NARAL in VA. We liked having the distinction of being represented by two women -- House and Senate -- in a state full of neanderthals.

 
At 11:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

9:08,
Depends on how much money you put behind it and how much time you spend laying the groundwork. Werkheiser's campaign should be doing the preparatory work now to get the media and talking heads familiar with the facts, so that legitimate third parties verify Albo's lying and can't get away with a smokescreen. I hope they've got their act together.

I know one thing, the public is in no mood for anyone right now who's soft on sex offenders, especially not NOVA moderate Republican soccer moms. Albo is moving in the exact wrong direction. Seems to me the context for believing this is to show that Albo is a corrupt political hack and a criminal defense lawyer.

If he was a Democrat it'd be believable, right?

 
At 1:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous prosecutor: can you clarify? Could you not just charge indecent liberties now? Or would the Albo bill have given you guys a tool you needed? I appreciate your willingness to speak up.

 
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At 8:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not to get too far off the Dave Albo legislation topic, but I saw this article on the 67th election results today. http://www.fairfaxconnection.com/article.asp?article=52034&paper=62&cat=104

It has several quotes from Gary Reese showing why he got turned out. He certainly is a bitter, angry, poor loser.

His attitude toward his electorate was like this thoughout his time in the General Assembly btw. He just feels the freedom to speak his mind now.

 
At 5:00 PM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

Before the Werkheiser people and the chattering class get too worked up about Dave's vote and what it means, they would all be well advised to click on this link at the Virginia Crime Commission chaired by Ken Stolle, a guy with little patience for child molesters, and read the .pdf at the bottom for a REAL analysis of the what Albo's bill HB1054 really means.
http://leg3.state.va.us/quickplace/crime/main.nsf/h_343DD85A234FED0E85256B660052D838/CC6A9AEFA6B5E26885256EAE005029F9/?OpenDocument

 
At 5:02 PM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

The website will not cut and paste properly but it is in the 2004 documents on the VA Crime Commission website.

 
At 6:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hairpiece:

It's not a vote. It's a bill.

And of course the Republican controlled Crime Commission isn't going to embarrass Albo. Nice try.

 
At 8:54 PM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

I should have referred to it as a bill...that was my error.

And as for the Crime Commission standing up for it, give me a break. If Tom DeLay says the sun rises in the east does that somehow mean the statement is not a valid one just because a GOPer states it? Can you be that partisan?

The issue is not who controls the Crime Commission...it is whether or not they are correct in their analysis. Based on my reading of the bill...of PROTECTs statement...and the Crime Commission's statement...I am inclined to think the Crime Commission has it right. Other than the fact that the Crime Commission is GOP controlled, can you show me what errors in their analysis exist?

 
At 10:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hairpiece: You can't be serious. That Commission "report" passes your laugh test? Look, this is sophistry, and it really should not be so hard for a political analyst such as yourself to understand.

Under current law (18.2-61) intercourse with a 10-year old is "Rape"--5 years to Life. Because it's a very BAD crime.

On the other hand, "touching" a child for sexual gratification in Virginia is classified as "Indecent liberties" (18.2-370.1). That's only fine/probation to 5 years if it's your own kid.

Normal people (not Albo) understand and appreciate the distinction. FINE-5 YEARS for touching... 5 YEARS-LIFE for rape.

(And don't forget: anyone who RAPES a child can also be considered guilty of TOUCHING them for sexual gratification. So, if you can't prove the former, you can charge the latter.)

The Albo bill tried to CHANGE THE DEFINITION OF INDECENT LIBERTIES. It added "rape" and "sodomy" to a list that only included touching and propositioning. (18.2-370.1) Guess what this means?

It means that if you rape your own 10 year old (or a 10 year old from your congregation or ballteam) you could be ELIGIBLE for a sentence of a fine or probation to 5 years.

Hairpiece, the Crime Commission should be ashamed of itself defending this mongrel legislation. Out of one side of their mouths, they are saying they need this "weapon"--i.e., the right to let someone off with probation even when they can prove it's rape. Yet, out of the other side of their mouth they boldly declare that they would never use it!

Their entire ludicrous argument hinges on you buying one idea, Hairpiece. They want you to accept the proposition that shoehorning the act of child rape into a Class 6 indecent liberties felony is NOT decreasing penalties BECAUSE they have also left Rape on the books.

By this logic, Albo could have proposed adding murder to the DEFINITION of assault and battery for racial reasons (18.2-57 (B)), which is also a Class 6. WOULD YOU HAVE A HARD TIME WITH THAT ONE? Say a guy goes out and KILLS an African-American because of the color of his skin. Should he be eligible to get a fine, Hairpiece? And if Albo proposed that, would you actually BUY an argument that said, "Hey, how dare those scam artists say I was lowering penalties! We left homicide right there on the books!"

Maybe if the murder was... as the Crime Commission likes to say about little boys and girls... "consensual"?

 
At 12:47 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

C'mon guys, let's not go over the top. You both made your point. Dave Albo has not murdered or raped any children, nor is he in favor of that. In my opinion though, the bill was stupid.

 
At 6:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

From 10:04: My apologies. It's your blog. Thanks for the forum.

 
At 7:38 AM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

My apology as well.

My point in this was not to defend Albo per se. My point was to highlight the willingness of partisans on both sides of the aisle to pick up and repeat attacks without knowing the underlying facts, especially when they are juicy-sounding.

Personally, I appreciate Anonymous 10:04's willingness to walk me through his analysis of the bill and the underlying nature of the attack. It says to me that he has done more than simply parrot what someone has told him or what PROTECT has said and has done some research. I am now prepared to go back and look at this in light of what he has written.

But my point was not to really have a deep debate on the Albo bill...it was to ensure that a hard partisan attack had some real meat to it.

Thanks.

 
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