Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, June 07, 2005

November

A quick look to November. We'll be back to primaries later today. :)

58th District

Outlook: Likely Republican

Incumbent Rob Bell is strongly favored here in suburban Albermarle County (and stretching into Greene, Fluvanna and Orange). He has a opponent in local school board member Steve Koleszar. This is a strong GOP district, that was once represented by George Allen.

I'm not calling this race over yet for two reasons. One, Albermarle is looking like Northern Virginia in the way it is moving the opposite direction of the rest of Virginia. So the margin here is not as large as in the past for the GOP. That having been said, most of the precincts which have already crossed "red to blue" are stuffed in the 58th District with Charlotesville City, where we have already projected David Toscano as the winner.

As a local elected official we are giving Koleszar a chance. But if he can't put together a great organization in this GOP leaning district we'll call it quick for Bell.

64th District

Outlook: Likely Democratic

The 64th is almost identical to the 58th across the state in Presidential elections (giving Bush about a 15 point margin). But the difference at the state level, where the 58th went for Mark Earley and the 64th going for Mark Warner by over 10 points shows where the "swing voters" are. Democrats have the perfect incumbent for this district in and around Williamsburg with incumbent William Barlow. Troy Lapetina the Republican challenger is back for a rematch (he lost by 14 points in 2003). He's a good challenger, but Barlow is the perfect fit for this district. This district will be host to an amazing open seat when Barlow retires.

67th District

Old Outlook: Safe Republican
New Outlook: Likely Republican

Big recruiting victory for the Democrats here as Chuck Caputo has entered the race in the 67th. Yes, we changed this to a Safe Republican last week as our sources told us the two Democrats who could make this a race (Caputo and Kathy Smith) has opted out. Here's what is going on:

a) Democrats expect Chris Craddock to win the primary. That made Caputo change his mind.
We have this race as a tossup, but all the buzz in Fairfax County is that Craddock is going to defeat Gary Reese.

b) Caputo as a former school board member/NOVA Community College Board member is very tied into the education community. Democrats are betting that Caputo entering this race will limit the education crossover for Reese, making Craddock stronger (which is better for Caputo).

c) Expect Caputo to drop out if Reese wins on June 14th.

We're calling it "Likely Republican" for now, if it is Craddock v. Caputo we'll call it a "Leans Republican".

91st District

Outlook: Safe Republican

This is a Republican area but not a knockout. A weak incumbent here, Tom Gear kept us from calling this race. However, with the Democrats failing to seriously challenge, we will call this race for Tom Gear. IF the Democrats ever make a serious campaign to take back the house, this will be a good district to watch.

10 Comments:

At 9:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My sources tell me Toscano is fading fast...but it's not enough for him to lose. However, I'd change the race to Likely Toscano...

 
At 10:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You've got to be kidding on the 58th District analysis. That is a SAFE SAFE Republican seat, at least with Koleszar running against Bell. Koleszar is a nice guy, but I've met him and he has absolutely no charisma, not to mention knowledge of the issues. Albemarle is swinging slightly to the left (voted 51% for Kerry in 2004), but that district also includes parts of conservative Greene and Orange. Bell used to be the Commonwealth's Attorney in Orange and has a large following there and Greene will never vote for a Albemarle school board member. Furthermore, Bell spent tens of thousands of dollars and knocked on countless doors in 2003 when he was running unopposed! I'm no fan of Delegate Bell, but he's a hell of a campaigner and at the door he comes off as your new best friend. And believe me, he's been to everyone's door.

 
At 10:33 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

It's likely Republican. Let's see if Koleszar figures out he can't win with 51% to Bell's left. 45% to his left and some protest votes however...

 
At 11:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bell is such a hack. All he ever puts in are brochure bills...

He's not a winger or anything, but it's pathetic how many brochure bills this guy puts in...

 
At 1:23 PM, Anonymous Deep Throat said...

Speaking of primaries Larry, have you followed the money?

 
At 1:31 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Just starting to now

 
At 6:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Talk show host Michael Graham of 630 WMAL fame is urging Republicans to support the challengers to Reese, May, and Parrish. Graham argues that Rs must punish at least one of the local tax raisers to send a message. Do you political gurus think this will have any effect?

I personally favor Parrish b/c challenger Chapman is nuts, but I support Craddock against Reese and Oprison against Joe May. Reese will lose for sure.

 
At 9:42 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Michael Graham is a hack (see other post about the Post's Melanie Scarborough). The only difference is he is a hack radio host instead of a hack writer.

 
At 10:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like it! you're using my terms.

 
At 10:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm a Democrat. I live in the 58th. You have obviously never seen Steve Koleszar in action. He couldn't win a raffle if he was the only entrant. He's the only bigger weenie in the 58th than Bell himself. Unless Bell dies, Koleszar won't win, and even then he may well find a way to lose.

 

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