Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Saturday, June 04, 2005

News Update

10 days until the primary. We're on the most important weekend of the primary- by Sunday most voters who will be participating will have a good idea who they are voting for. Here's an update of what's happening:

50th District
Outlook: Safe Republican
Primary: Safe Parrish

Check out this article. We need more newspapers covering with opinion pieces like this, and letting the voters know what's really going on.

1st District
Outlook: Safe Republican

Democratic challenger makes an issue of the mom. Tacky, but effective after the Gate City elections. As we said before, this is the Democrats best chance here. After the primary we may move this to the competitive board as a "Likely Republican", depending on how other things go.

67th District
Outlook: Safe Republican
Primary: Toss Up

Another Times Article, this one on the 67th. Chris Craddock has the momentum here, this will be a real thriller down to the end. Gary Reese will need Democrats to come out and vote for him to win this election.

37th District
GOP Primary: Leans Mason
DEM Primary: Leans Bulova
General: Toss Up

Nothing exciting in any of the candidate profiles. This was an interesting article though.

A few other notes on what we are hearing around the state:

Southwest Democrats have not gotten organized behind Phil Puckett to generate the kind of turnout he needs. A Democratic source who lives within 2 blocks of Puckett's Lebanon home tell us there are still people in the neighborhood who are unaware they are supposed to vote in 10 days. Sorry Phil, but if your precinct doesn't know to vote....

In the 35th District GOP primary Jim Hyland is trying a new tactic, a lit drop piece the size of a yard sign. I've yet to see it, and the reviews are mixed on it in this tossup primary. The idea of that much text will make some candidates want to do it again if it works.

45th District- Laura Mandala's latest mailpiece reminds voters she is not related to Nelson Mandala. Hahaha! Now we are officially in the silly season of primaries. Laura has the most cash but she is fading fast here.

HAVA Ballots- After the Florida situation in the 2000 election the Congress passed the Help America Vote Act (HAVA). HAVA includes a provision that ballots will be mailed for two years to anyone who voted absentee in 2004 and indicates a primary party preference. This is a major list statewide, and these ballots went out about 10 days ago. A few registrars around Virginia have told us very few candidates have requested these lists. I don't want to print who picked up on this and who didn't on single sources, but if you are working for a Delegate candidate and missed a few hundred ballots being mailed in your district.. you don't deserve to win.


At 9:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well dip me in honey and throw me to the lesbians!

At 11:35 AM, Anonymous mitch's wife said...

Tara Slate Donaldson is a good reporter. I don't always agree with her, but I like her style. But debate or no debate, at the end of the day, Parrish takes 65% over Chapman.

At 12:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And here I thought you were trying to be unbiased... You know, if she really were innocent, Mama Kilgore'd take a leave of absence to support her son's campaigns openly and in a full partisan fashion. How is it tacky to ask someone already *suspected* of election fraud to take the high road? You'd think she'd want their to be NO QUESTION that her sons whipped the damned donkeys without resorting to mama's skirt strings.

At 2:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live in the 35th and got one of the Hyland yard sign letters. It is a poorly written letter filled with grammatical errors that spends more time bashing Robinson than saying anything about why someone should vote for Hyland.

I thought the Republicans in my district would have learned from are last primary that a nasty primary in the summer only leads to a loss in the fall.

I am waiting to see if Robinson resorts to a negative campaign style like Hyland or tries to do what is best for the party in the fall and stay above this style of campaigning.

At 2:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yeah. Mama Kilgore is a dirty rotten crook.

At 3:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unfortunately, it's not just Mama Kilgore. The whole family's crooked.

At 12:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rumor has it that Byrne is up 17 in her internal poll and told her mail guy she had won, and to end Chap's career this week....

At 7:04 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

1223 anon- it is tacky. but it is a great tactic in this case.

At 11:27 AM, Blogger Kevin said...

Re: Byrne Internal Poll

Numbers? How many were in the sample? I still haven't made up my mind who I'm voting for and I have changed my mind between three candidates 4 times in the last week or so.

At 11:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kevin - let me help you. Vote for Chap. Or we lose in November. Big time.

At 12:13 PM, Blogger Kevin said...

Puckett can't win?

At 12:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh sorry. Puckett can win statewide. But he's not doing too well in the primary...

At 6:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I keep on hearing rumors of Byrne internal polls, but if she has the numbers...why isn't SHE sending them out?

At 8:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You know, quite honestly, no one in any other part of the state has heard of Byrne (other than NOVA). And outside of Richmond, no one has heard of Baskerville. Unfortunately for Chap, Byrne gets NOVA. It's hard to call this race right now, but most people think Byrne can squeak it out by taking NOVA by a heavy margin. I'd love for Puckett or Chap to win. Or even Viola.

At 8:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Byrne has ticked off a lot of people in NoVA, as can be seen in the WaPo article today (6/4) and Baskerville sure does seem to be making a lot inroads up there...there's a good chance that she could pick off a lot of votes from both Chap! and Leslie and pull this one off still. It is a hard one to call, I'll agree with you on that one. Though interestingly enough, you can tell on which region people are from based on who they chose as the frontrunner along with Chap!

At 10:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

8:37 Anon -

You're looking to today's WaPo opinion piece by Melanie Scarborough as if it is NEWS about Leslie Byrne? What a joke.

Scarborough is a shrill GOP hack, NoVA's own little Ann Coulter (possibly minus the Adam's Apple, though I've never seen her so can't be sure.) She's surely no source on reality about Byrne, however.

There are some major party insiders who feel they've been rubbed wrong by Byrne, but average NoVA Dem primary voters will vote for her because they recognize her name. (It sure would help if she actually had some YARD SIGNS, though, especially a couple for each polling place in NoVA.)

At 11:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agreed on Scarsborough. She's doesn't WRITE columns, she just transposes GOP press releases into OP-ed form. What a hack.

At 11:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Melanie is a "breath of fresh air" and a sign of a little (and I mean very little) balance in the WaPo. Most of the editorials in the WaPo as well as the few op-eds they run about Virginia politics are just recycled Democratic taking points.

If you do not want to read Melanie, just don't go to the back of the Sunday Opinion section one weekend per month. If I have to avoid the Dem stuff, I have to ignore the editorials and op-eds on a daily basis.

At 1:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey - I'm a dem and I love reading conservative writing. I read George Will, and I always enjoyed Bill Safire.

What I can't stand is hack writing. It's on both sides. Krugman used to be interesting and now he's just a complete Democratic hack.

And that's what Scarsborough is. And the worst is when she attempts to analyze Democratic primaries...lines like:

"Petersen is not as far left as Byrne, but is he as moderate as he claims, or is he following the tell-'em-what-they-want-to-hear lead of Warner and Lt. Gov. Timothy M. Kaine?"

What? Check out the guy's voting record...he has some votes that put him on the right side of the Democratic spectrum. If you happen to think that's still liberal (as Scarsborough does) then that's fine. But the fact of the matter is that Petersen comes out as one of the more conservative both his votes AND his rhetoric.

On that note - I can't stand "even-handed hack" writing either. That's when you make fun of both sides in order to appear moderate. It's just as crappy. I want real opinion that doesn't POSE as anything other than opinion.

At 1:30 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Is that a shot at me?

At 1:46 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Anonymous - is there anything you do like?

I'll second the negative comments about Scarborough. My biggest issue is she can't get her facts straight. I almost laughed out loud reading her "analysis" on the Dem primary. But when has misstating the facts ever deterred the Post?

NLS, did you even know what "hack writing" was until today? I'll admit, it's a new term on me.

At 3:40 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

New term for me also

At 8:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS: no that wasn't a shot at you. There's legit even-handed analysis, and then there's forced even-handed analysis. When you write up a story that's obviously negative toward one side, then add a paragraph to balance it (even though that paragraph doesn't belong) that's hack op-ed writing. It's a mickey kaus derived term.

You're doing a fine job.

At 9:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As to the Parish/Chapman race, there was a full page ad in today's (June 9) Manassas Journal featuring just about everybody of importance in Manassas, and even PWC, endorsing Harry Parish. None of this is suprising, since Harry is the obvious and overwhelming choice of the "establishment." There were a number of well known Democrats, Chuck Colgan, Toddy Puller -- though her name was signed as Linda T. Puller, John Jenkins, and Dave Brickley, urging support for Harry. This type of broad support will help with middle of the road voters and is an open invitation to Democats to vote in the Republican primary for Harry. Perhaps more helpful for Harry is the endorsement of Pat Linehan, who is on the Manssas School Board and a well known member of the All Saints Catholic Church in Manassas. That shows that Harry has some support in a stronglgy pro-life constituency, that Chapman is counting on to vote for him. The biggest name missing from the list is that of Bob Marshall. In one sense, this is not surprising, since, at least in terms of issues, Chapman is closer to Marshall than Harry. In 2003, Marshall was willing to endorse a moderate Republican, Jack Rollinson, over a more conservative primary opponent, Jeff Frederick. Perhaps last year's budget battle has left Marshall feeling that open support on his part by moderates is not a good idea. Does anybody know if Marshall is giving Chapman behind the scenes support, or if he has decided to sit this one out. There were also Parsih supporters at the VRE station handing out letters from Speaker Howell saying how key Harry has been in establishing and maintaining VRE. It would seem like a pretty good day for Harry, though all the "establishment" support for Harry could feed into Chapman's argument that he has been the victim of an "establishment plot." Also, the prominent support of Democrats could help to motivate Chapman's base.


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