Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

GOP Primary Rating Changes

From what you are reporting and what I am hearing around the state...

67th
Old Rating: Toss Up
New Rating: Leans Craddock

Everything is going Craddock's way right now.

30th
Old Rating: Toss Up
New Rating: Leans Scott

Big Madison Turnout gives Scott the edge he needs. He wins by taking either Culpeper or Orange.

33rd
Old Rating: Leans May
New Rating: Leans May (Kind of)

The electorate in the 33rd is not as angry as the electorate in the 67th... however... the turnout looks very close to the 2003 numbers. If these are the same voters that voted against Potts by a 2-1 margin May is in trouble. We'll know when the first precinct comes in what is going on here...

37th
Old Rating: Leans Mason
New Rating: Toss Up

Petersen has taken a big vote here, the GOP primary is so small anything can happen.

54th
Old Rating: Toss Up
New Rating: Toss Up

Who knows here.....

Attorney General

Turnout in Hampton Roads is better than Richmond Metro. The biggest turnouts are being pushed by conservative House candidates. Bob McDonnell has got to be considered the favorite in this electorate today.

12 Comments:

At 4:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

45th? Anything? With 6 campaigns, how is everyone being so mum?

 
At 4:43 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Trying to catch up to the D's....

 
At 4:43 PM, Anonymous I Voted said...

WBTK, Richmond 1380 is reporting a heat stroke at a voting location in Chesterfield County. I think she was a democrat.

 
At 4:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That could swing things from Byrne to Chap. You said "she".

 
At 4:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anyone know any local jurisdiction websites that will be tracking votes by precinct as they come in? (PWC & Fairfax used to do this, but I see no links on their registrar sites today.)

I have the state board website and Virginia Beach.

Looking for others. Thanks for any help!

 
At 4:57 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

NLS - be careful about calling a race from the first returns. Those first results have a nasty way of turning on you later in the evening. It's happened to me many times. For some strange reason, the worst precincts for an incumbent get reported first.

 
At 5:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

54th District:
19 precincts, Spotsylvania Co.
1 precinct, Caroline Co.
As of 4:00 PM

Ni River: 117 Votes (108 R, 9 D)
With 3 hours to go this equals 5.2% of this precincts vote total in 2004

Chancellor: 99 Votes (90 R, 9 D)
With 3 hours to go, this equals 4.8% of this precincts vote total in 2004

Turnout being so low should favor a challenger, so Kenney folks seem optimistic....

 
At 5:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I doubled checked Brightwood's 2003 GOP primary turn out. It was 13.8%, not 17%. Today's total should be ~15.5%. Hot weather's wilting the turnout. No one's outside the A/C polling place.

 
At 5:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

For Fairfax County local results:
http://www.co.fairfax.va.us/eb/webreports/countywide.htm

 
At 6:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Prince William
Westridge Precinct
6:40 pm
R - 162
D - 51

 
At 7:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous (5:02) said...
"54th District:
19 precincts, Spotsylvania Co.
1 precinct, Caroline Co.
As of 4:00 PM

Ni River: 117 Votes (108 R, 9 D)
With 3 hours to go this equals 5.2% of this precincts vote total in 2004

Chancellor: 99 Votes (90 R, 9 D)
With 3 hours to go, this equals 4.8% of this precincts vote total in 2004

Turnout being so low should favor a challenger, so Kenney folks seem optimistic.... "

If Spotsylvania's primary turnouts are 1/3 to 1/4 of a presidential general, those are big numbers.

The 2004 Democratic primary had smaller numbers for those same precincts. I don't see much for Kenney's folks in those voter figures, unless he benefits from a large vote.

 
At 11:51 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A larger vote in the 54th did more to benifit Orrock than Kenney. Kenney was relying on the core conservatives to come out and vote for him, the higher numbers show more moderates and Dems voting which benifited Orrock.

 

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