Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, June 03, 2005

GOP Primaries

Interesting Email we got today. What are your thoughts?

Mr. Not Larry Sabato -

Recently I attended a local fundraiser for an incumbent and in discussions with lobbyists, have picked up the following -

VA Beach - If one rides around the Beach, you see plenty of Miles, and Schmidt signs and hear that the turnout for McDonnell will help the challengers.

Middle Peninsula - After driving through the Fredericksburg area, one would think Kenny is the only one running, so it looks like Orrock has been running a stealth campaign.

Northern VA - Parrish internal polls call the race a dead heat. That could explain the urgent message sent out yesterday by Majority Leader, Griffith asking for help do the Door to Door this weekend in support - money is not an issue its grassroots. And speaking of grassroots, looks like Reese has none which will hurt him. For reasons mentioned above, the conservatives are the ones who show up at mass meetings, attend conventions and yes vote on primary day.

With little more than a week from election day, looks more like there will be more than one incumbent to be defeated. As the issue of the tax increase may not play a roll, as both Leo and Bob at the beach voted against the tax increase.

Thanks and keep up the great blog!

16 Comments:

At 6:31 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm going to put my thoughts here in the comment section.

1) It's been a while since we had a revolt against the establishment. I don't think it will be this year, but we are about due for one.

2) No way Chapman beats Parrish. No Way.

3) Reese and Orrock are the ones in deep trouble. Totally agree.

 
At 6:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Orrock is going to be beat. Reese, too. Grassroots will beat money every time in down ticket races. Conservatives figured it out a long time ago. When will everyone else?

 
At 7:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live in the beach, and the only signs you see are for statewide office. The Schmidt and Miles campaigns have been total disappointments. I keep waiting to see something from them but the only thing I get in the mail is from Bob Mc. They have no web sites that I know of, very few signs, and the only one running a commercial is Purkey starring Senator Warner. What a waste of an opportunity. Schmidt raised a good chunck of money so maybe commercials, and the rest of a campaign,are coming. I just hope it isn't to late. Purkey and Wardrup win much easier than they should have is my prediction.

 
At 9:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the Parrish campaign is saying dead heat then their guy is losing. May not be by much but you know they would be shouting from the mountaintop if Parrish were winning. If someone has seen the numbers or had an indy poll conducted that would sway my opinion but I had heard @ 6 weeks ago that a Parrish poll had Chapman winning. Like it was said above, grassroots wins these races.

 
At 10:40 PM, Anonymous mitch's wife said...

Sorry, but chapman doesn't stand a chance. I don't know ANYONE who is voting for Chapman and I know a lot of people.

Connaughton has a huge level of support in Manassas and Manassas Park. That will drive up turnout and that helps Parrish even more.

 
At 11:01 PM, Anonymous mtch's wife said...

Oh, and let me say it again... Gary Reese is a good man. I wish that I could vote for him. Can he still win? I don't know, but he deserves to.

I also wish that I could vote for Harry Parrish, but for different reasons. As I have said before, he does't need my help. Don't believe what you hear about polls. Remember, Anke Cheney is running his campaign. She is very good and very clever. The more comfortable Chapman is, the more comfortable she is.

 
At 9:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh pleaaaase....this email is so obviously tilted towards VCAP challengers. Give me a break. Tell this winger to go back to beating up gays for sport.

 
At 11:36 AM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

My wife is correct on this one. Connaughton supporters will vote en masse for Parrish and vice versa. Chapman's support is Shakespearean: "full of sound and fury, signifying nothing." His best hope is that his few contributors will either help his legal defense fund or keep him in cigarettes while in jail. I hear they're still a good form of currency in the slammer.

 
At 11:37 AM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

By the way, how are you, Darling?

 
At 3:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am out & about in Va. Beach every day, all over the district.

I have seen 3 Schmidt signs and NO Miles signs.

McDonnell - many signs.
Baril - NO signs.
Connaughton & Bolling - same number of signs - not quite as many as McDonnell, but not too shabby.
Chap - a few signs (very few)
Viola, Byrne & the other guy (oops can't remember his name) - NO
signs.

Kilgore - a fair amount of signs.
Kaine - very few signs.

 
At 7:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only Dem LG candidate I have seen signs for anywhere has been Chap! My guess is that the others don't have them.

 
At 10:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I see plenty of Connaughton and McDonnell sign on the lower Peninsula

 
At 10:55 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

9:38pm Anonymous (we'll call you "Steve") - If the Parrish campaign is saying it's a dead heat that means absolutely nothing. Successful candidates never publicly transmit a belief they are winning because their supporters will stay home on election day. They also never transmit a belief they are behind because, well, what's the point of saying you're going to get clocked?

If you think a man under a felony indictment for voter fraud beats the chairman of the House Finance Committee, I'd like some of whatever you are smoking.

 
At 8:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm seeing Fitch signs in places I did not expect to see them.

 
At 8:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

nmr - so you think Harry wins hands down? By what margin? anything less than 60 plus points is a failure?

 
At 8:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Races must be getting tight as both candidates for AG and Lt Gov have gone on the attack - wonder if Ray Allen and co are shaking in their boots.

 

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