Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Saturday, June 18, 2005

84th District Update

Outlook: Likely Republican

Democrats nominated a good candidate here in Supriya Christopher, but she has not been getting any breaks.

First of all, as we have told you before this is a solid GOP district. The closest any Democrat has come here was Mark Warner's six point loss in 2001.

Incumbent Bob McDonnell then managed to hand off the GOP nomination to his aide Sal Iaquinto without opposition in a year where it seemed every GOP race had a nomination fight.

Then McDonnell went and won the nomination for Attorney General giving Iaquinto a well known and locally popular ticket mate to run with. Meanwhile no Democratic candidate from the area is running statewide.

Given that this district has one of the lowest turnout rates in the state because of the military presence, turnout is even more important and a local turnout booster is a major factor.

Last week on that primary day, Republicans cast 84% of the ballots in this district, giving Christopher a list of only 281 Democrats to work with. It's doubtful anything new was gained by that.

Finally, with all these advantages, Iaquinto has taken a small fundraising lead, and has spent less giving him a $17,000 cash on hand advantage as of June 1st.

We may call this one soon.


At 10:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What's taking you so long to call this race. EVERYONE in Richmond, Republicans and Democrats, have already given it to the Republicans. This is the only place in the state the race is still in play.

There is not a radar screen in the western hemisphere that can see this race.

At least it won't be called a "toss-up."

At 10:29 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Open Seats are always watchable if the minority party has a decent candidate.

How many tossups do I have out of 100 for the general election? 3, I think.

At 10:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not too much to quibble about on the "toss-up" although I would move the Frederick-Barg race to "lean Dem" but that is minor and within the margin of discussion. Nonetheless Barg will win.

This Virginia Beach seat however is clearly Republican. Sure it's watchable...kind of like a car wreck on I-81 is watchable.

Your right, Supryia Christopher is a fine candidate but fine candidates lose everyday in the wrong district and that is what we have here. In this case just because a seat is open doesn't mean it's competitive or even really watchable.

The overall Demographics of Virginia are moving towards the Democrats, especially in urban and highly surbanized areas ie. Fairfax, Prince William, Harrisonburg, Richmond inner suburbs, Norfolk, Roanoke suburbs etc. However slowly in some areas, the Beach is not moving as quickly (my guess military influence).

The Beach is where good Democratic candidates go to die.

At 11:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's me again. Actually you have 4 races called "Toss-ups" as of this time.

I would argue this:

52nd Leans Dem - discuss at another time.

87th Leans Dem - Miller is incumbent, lots of time to play DElegate is fron t of a lot of swing voters. She has the support of a key Republican City Councilman in her district as well as a Norfolk Republican constitutional officer who both put their necks on the line for her during the special election. Let alone the Mayor who not only raise her money but even worked all day for her at the polls. Tough to beat. The Republicans in Richmond are not enamored woth Ball and would have preferred another candidate.

37th - Fair enough to call it a "toss-up" for now. Everyone deserves a chance to see how this shakes out.

41st - I say leans Dem. We have an aide to the Republican incumbent who has lots of friends on the Republican side, hence Republican cross-over votes. We have an increasingly Democratic district in Fairfax County. The question here is: Is the Republican candidate that much better than the Democrat to gain the win. The Republican, because he was not an aide to popular to Dillard, starts behind. That makes it tougher.

At 11:19 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

We just disagree. I think those ratings are biased towards D's. An R would tell you the 3 tossups are fine that you would lean D, and the tossup you have would lean R. Given my 100% record in the primaries, I think you should give us some time on these.

At 11:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Virginia Beach seat I would move to "likely R" not "lean R" and may not take too much time to move it to "safe R."

Take as much time as you need but these seats look pretty clear. Putting the Marsden/Golden, Frederick and Ball seats in the "lead D" column does not mean their opponents cannot win, it just means they are significantly behind right now and they need what it takes for those behind to win. Close yes, but clearly behind.

Please do not feed us your 100% again. The real professionals will laugh and you have attracted some here. We have a chance to discuss races in a way that has not happened before but it needs to be done credibly.

You have interesting things to say and we enjoy the dialogue. Let's just discuss races and not talk about the "record." Truce?

At 11:51 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

This is what makes me mad. It is likely R, and has never been leans R. I would only ask you review my race by race posting. Our tossups were all very close, or there is a widespread consensus that they broke late/had weird turnout patterns.

On each of those things that happened we told people exactly what would need to happen in order for it to happen. i.e. 71st- we told everyone Jennifer Mc. would win big if Baskerville was over 70% in district. She was, and Jennifer did.

At 12:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anonymous: Name one Republican friend (other than Dillard--a questionable R at best) Marsden has in the 41st district.

At 12:25 AM, Anonymous Watchers said...

Your right you have the Virginia Beach seat rated likely R and we missed it. We are trying to reach common ground here.

When you call a race a "toss-up" that means it is supposed to end up close, not have someone win by over 30 points or over 10 points reagrdless of your caveats (if this...then that). When someone wins by 30 ponits or even more than 10 points then a "perfect" blogger should be able to state that before election day (if we want to claim to be perfect).

The bottom line is this: A race cannot be called a "toss-up" and someone wins by over 30 points. Thats is a miss. That is a blow-out. Hence a predictor needs to predict a blow-out (no if this then that). See criticism from Raising Kaine (and they missed most of it as well).

We honestly do not care you could not straight-forwardly pick winners in 8 races althought it would seem some others beg to differ (point maybe?).

Here is where we like you, not that you should care. We give you plenty of credit for taking the initiative in starting this blog and generating some interesting discussions (no mean feat). Please take compliments when they are given.

There are standards however, and they apply to Commonwealth Conservative, Waldo, Raising Kaine, now NMR and the others.

We ask you this (and by the way, who cares what we think), keep generating interesting discussion, write your articles, provide the launching point, but don't hype yourself when it is not warranted(we hate that).

NLS, you provide a public service and that is what we need. Keep going strong and I am going to bed. From now on just look for us. We will be posting under "Watchers."

At 2:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

yeah. seriously. this "I'm right 100% of the time!!!!" crap is annoying.

At 2:26 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

You guys are very dense to what is tounge in cheek and what isn't.

Anyway, I'm going to use President Bush as an example. If I say it enough times it becomes true, right?

At 12:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Supriya is SOOOOOO hot.

At 12:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh my god! I had no idea that Santa wasn't real and then I saw this.


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