Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, June 10, 2005

4 Days Away, DEM

Here's a review card of the action on Tuesday

DEMOCRATS

Seven Democratic primaries for the House of Delegates on Tuesday fall into 3 categories. "Challenged Incumbents" are 2 of the 7. "Heads Up Open Seats" are 2 of the 7. Finally wide open "Multi Candidate Open Seats" are the other 3.

"Challenged Incumbents"

In order of chance of incumbent defeat

#1- 74th, incumbent Floyd Miles, challenger Don McEachin.
Outlook: Leans McEachin

#2- 90th, incumbent Algie Howell, challenger Keela Boose
Outlook: Likely Howell

Key Notes: Everything favors McEachin here, there will need to be a major surge for Miles on election day for him to hold his seat. Howell should win big, but his "droopy drawers" bill could make this interesting. Both the 74th and 90th will go to the winner of these primaries.

"Heads Up Open Seats"

In order of importance to the General Election

#1- 37th, David Bulova, Janet Oleszek. Outlook: Toss Up

#2- 71st, Jennifer McClellan, Marvin Law. Outlook: Toss Up

Key Notes: Winner in 71st is elected. 37th could go either way by up to 30 points. It's wide open.

"Multi Candidate Open Seats"

In order of margin separating the candidates

#1- 75th, Jerry Flowers, Jim Councill, Roslyn Tyler, John Nicholson, Deborah Goodwyn.
Outlook: Toss Up

#2- 45th, David Englin, Libby Garvey, Jim Lay, Dick Hobson, Elsie Mosqueda, Laura Mandala.
Outlook: Toss Up

#3- 57th, David Toscano, Kim Tingley, Rich Collins
Outlook: Safe Toscano

Key Notes: Winner is elected in 45th and 57th. For now, also in the 75th, although a really divided primary could make us reconsider that.

38 Comments:

At 10:59 AM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

In the 71st today I heard a Baskerville commercial for Jen...it was well done although Baskerville was horse from the campaign trail...I found it ironic that I still have not heard a radio commercial for her campaign for LG...In the 74th Miles has won the endorsemnt battle...Free Press, Times Dispatch, various elected officials...vs the Mayor the Richmond Crusade for Voters, and the Richmond Voice for McEachin...looks like the same line up that was present in 1995..except I bet you McEachin wins by more than 130 votes...

 
At 11:46 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Very Interesting. Which one do you live in?

 
At 11:48 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

I'm still very convinced that Englin wins BIG Tuesday. By "big" I mean 10-15%. He's just got way more volunteers than the other campaigns...perhaps as many as the others combined coming down the stretch, from what I can see.

It's remarkable, really. This guy came out of nowhere.

 
At 12:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So did Howard Dean...

The change to "toss up" makes sense, because after a completely disorganized start, Garvey has some very serious momentum going on now, along with the majority of endorsements from the three parts of the district. She brought in two very experienced people to help in the last two weeks, and they've made a big difference.

 
At 12:57 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

It was a tossup before... there's been no change. I just noted a slight lean to Englin, that wasn't a rating, just a note. Sorry for any confusion.

 
At 1:09 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Dean had negatives though. And his volunteers were obnoxious kids from blue states. Englin has local people.

I don't see any Englin negatives, other than the Moran thing...but I haven't really seen the other candidates using this issue...it's probably too risky. Does anyone know about that happening on the ground?

 
At 1:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Garvey was the early favorite from the beginning, then her campaign went to hell for a few weeks. Now it's pretty clear that she's the one to beat.

Englin is the comer, and almost everyone I talk to is now saying that the race is between Garvey and Englin.

That's nice, because they are both great candidates for that district. The others really do leave a lot to be desired.

It's the most excitement the 45th has had in years, possibly ever.

 
At 2:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are both wrong. The enthusiasm of Englin's volunteers does not make up for his lack of community experience. His support is soft. There is also still no sign of Garvey's campaign. Key supporters, including early endorsers, have been leaving. Election Day will be very interesting.

 
At 2:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't buy the comment that Englin's support is soft. Many people I talk to who are supporting David say they are doing so because they truly believe in his ideas and his vision for Northern Virginia (in more words or less). Whereas with the supporters of other candidates I have gotten on more than one occasion, "We're friends with_____" or, "we've known _____ for a long time now." This isn't to say that Englin doesn't have friends who are voting for him, but from my experience talking with other potential voters in the 45th district it seems like people who are voting for Englin are doing so for far different reasons than those who are voting for other candidates.

Election day should be pretty exciting, but I don't think you can win an election on the basis of getting your friends out to vote for you, and with the kind of campaign that Englin has been running, I would consider him to be the front-runner.

 
At 3:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The problem is that Englin's ideas and vision are no different from any of the other candidates. Because other candidates are now getting their messages out (after waiting until the electorate started to focus), the early Englin deciders are softening. through the W. Post and mail, The difference between Englin and the other candidates is that they, unlike Englin, have been around and can back up their ideas and vision with specific activities they have taken in the community. Even Lay, who was the least known, has some community experience underscoring his law and order experience. Local elections are won or lost based on networks and experience in the community rather than ideas or visions.

 
At 3:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I like Lay, I wish he was one of the frontrunners. and yes, the ideas are fairly similar - but I think Englin has grabbed the "party building" label and hung it around his neck. That's resonating with lots of people...because let's face it, the Democratic Party is pathetic in Virginia.

 
At 5:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Party builder" is not a message that sells in the 45th where there are no elected Republicans.

 
At 10:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're missing the point. Dems in safe seats like the 45th should BE the party builders because they can put their energy into that without much worry about Republicans. That's part of Englin's message, and anyone who's spent any time actually talking with voters in the 45th knows that it is resonating.

 
At 10:47 PM, Blogger LiebJef said...

word

booyah

 
At 10:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

its a crying shame. candidates for office, especially democrats think the reason to elect them is their resume. experience is important, but what about the future?

it seems like the entire field in the 45th is offering their resume has the reason to elect them, except for englin. he's the only one to offer a message, any message for the future.

garvey says "others like me, you should too"

mosqeuda says "i've done this for years, so let me do it for real now."

mandala says "i'm like that governor dude from here, so that makes me the best even though I had to move a few miles to be able to run"

hobson says, "doing it last century makes it easy to do it this century"

lay says, "i could get elected if i did what mandala is doing and moved into another district"

then there is englin who only references his impressive resume to accentuate his capability of executing his agenda. others forget they need an agenda before they talk about what qualifies them to execute it. or maybe the just don't think it's important to talk about their ideas.

 
At 11:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Party building in a district that's 70% or more Democratic? The usual name for that is "reinventing the wheel." Once again, Englin shows that he has the wrong issues and wrong tactics for this district. He should move to Virginia Beach, where he can be as militaristic as he likes in a place where they really do need a Democratic Party. He could really do the party a service there, and I'm not being sarcastic in the least.

 
At 11:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

quick question: Is Leslie really a man?

 
At 11:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kaine needs 72% in the 45th. Kerry got 68%. The only way Kaine gets what he needs in the 45th is through the kind of organizing Englin is doing.

 
At 11:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

11:09, you are right. 10:09, you are missing the point.

Delegates are not elected to "party build" but to actually represent the district. What the pro-Englin posters are missing is that a local election turns on who can actually serve the District. Experience matters because that shows both a history of serving the community and a knowledge of the issues that actually matter to the people of the District. This is important in the 45th because the District includes probably the highest concentration of legislative and executive branch employees in the country. They know that politics ends on Election Day and governing begins on Inauguration Day. Englin's focus on politics and party building does not resonate in an area that focuses on what you do after the election.

The 45th District does not need someone who wants to use the seat for a stepping stone to higher office down the road. They have Mark Warner, Don Beyer, Bill Euille, Kerry Donley, Brian Moran and a host of others.

What do all of these people have in common? They were all active long before they ran for office and focused their work in office doing their jobs (i.e., representing their constituents). Because of them, and many others, the district is overwhelmingly Democratic.

The reason that Englin's support have been softening and eroding is because of people like 10:09. Actual voters are interested in what the candidates are going to do as their representatives in the state government, not what you think needs to be done to rebuild a Democratic party that may be broken on a national level but literally could not be stronger on a local level. As the real voters actually focus on the race, they see that the other candidates' offerings, namely the resumes, experience and endorsements that 10:57 decries, are more compelling.

Is it a crying shame? For politicos, yes. For voters/constituents, no.

 
At 11:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The focus on percentages alone is meaningless. Kaine needs a typical federal election turnout in NoVa rather than a typical state election turnout. 72% in a typical state turnout means a Kaine loss. 68% in a typical federal turnout in NoVa (without the same turnout downstate) means a Kaine victory. Kaine needs a message that resonates with people who think government happens in Washington rather than in Richmond.

 
At 11:53 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Last anon:

Excellent Point.

 
At 12:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

11:41, can you show one tiny shred of evidence that Englin's support is softening? I see new yards bearing his signs every day, and his volunteers have been all over my nieghborhood and my friends' nieghboorhoods every day for the past two weeks. If anything, it seems like he's everywhere, all the time, and getting a great reception. You keep claiming that his support is softening, but your only actual evidence seems to be Libby's endorsements, which are old news at this point. Offer some evidence, or admit that you're just shilling for Libby, trying to create momentum online because it doesn't exist on the streets.

 
At 12:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's true that Englin is the "party building" candidate, but he's also the "here's what I plan to do for the district" candidate. He's still the only candidate with a detailed agenda -- something the highly-educated, government-experienced residents of the 45th (and even the Washington Post editorial board) appreciate.

 
At 12:40 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Primaries in local races are not message campaigns. They are, "Here is what I have done for you and what I am going to continue doing for you" campaigns. It is far more important to have a key endorsement than a 10 point plan. In a local race, I would trade one civic activist with a Rolodex for 10 young canvassers any day. I would also listen closely to people who have worked on local races in the District (rather than handing out flyers in a Presidential). They are the ones who will tell you that Englin's support is softening.

And NLS, thanks.

 
At 12:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bash Englin for being the "party building" candidate? That's ridiculous. We need something more in "safe seats" than someone who's just going to vote the right way reliably - any of the 6 would do that most of the time.

But who is going to be a proud progressive leader? Who has detailed policy proposals as well as plans to build Democratic strength beyond the 45th? ONLY Englin has both. In fact, only Englin has either.

I would have loved to support either Garvey or Mosqueda based on their resumes. But they've both run miserable campaigns.

At the Fairlington candidate forum, when lobbed the softball of "what bill would you introduce first?" Libby Garvey actually said she would decide that AFTER she was elected!! AFTER she is elected!?!? She doesn't even know what she wants to do first?

Then she keeps repeating the ridiculously pollyanna-ish idea that she'll get things accomplished in Richmond with the Republican majority because she'll take them all out to lunch and get to know them.

I'd really like to know what lunch she could buy for Bob "Bedroom Laws" Marshall and Dick "Have a Plastic Fetus" Black that would make them any less...insane.

Then there's Mosqueda. On top of the unspeakably anemic campaign, relying almost completely on endorsements, she not only failed to show that she's not riding on Brian Moran's coattails, she hides behind them. At the candidate forum a couple of weeks ago in DelRay, she started to answer a question about workers' rights and labor laws, and then stopped herself mid-sentence, covered her mouth, looked back at Brian Moran sitting in the back row, and said something like, "Oh - I don't know if Brian's going to like me saying this!" and didn't go on until he shouted, "Don't worry, I'd be a co-sponsor!"

I REALLY think she's a great woman, but that was just plain embarrassing.

Then there's Jim Lay. He's a hoot - a really nice guy, too. I just wish he'd move to somewhere like Fredericksburg or Spotsylvania county and run there. He'd be a really great Democratic delegate. I just think we should be running a real progressive in the 45th, and Lay is a self-described "bleeding heart moderate". He's too conservative for the 45th, but would run really well elsewhere.

 
At 12:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Um...you mean people who are part of the old-guard machine that feels threatened by Englin's strength? Yeah, those are impartial analysts of the race. What's their evidence, other than they wish?

 
At 12:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

12:06, you really should go back and read the Post endorsement again. See who matches their own political tendency (center-right Democratic), and see who they give the actual pragmatic nod to. It's not Englin, and the endorsement piece is telling.

Englin=Dean: his supporters only see what they want to see, they attribute great profundity to his ideas, ideas that struck me as incredibly lacking in substance when I first went to a candidate forum with a completely open mind toward the whole field, and a slight interest in... um, David Englin.

Now I will say that Laura Mandala has really beaten up on him in a way that I find disgusting as well as stupid, but he is just not as impressive as he thinks he is, and the fact that he thinks he's just going to run down to Richmond and force progressive politics on a legislature that is only slightly to the left of the Ku Klux Klan only shows how little he knows about honest-to-goodness politics.

He does have a lot of yard signs. But people agree to a lot of things when you're at their doorstep. They say even more interesting things when you ask them about their new yard sign.

BTW, 12:40 nailed it on the subject of what primary races are. That's why Garvey truly does have the momentum now.

 
At 9:21 AM, Blogger LiebJef said...

When I see David Englin...

I see Pride!
I see Power!
I see a badass mother who don't take no crap off of nobody!

 
At 12:01 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

With such substantive arguments like that, I'm sure we can all decide how to vote on Tuesday.

 
At 4:32 PM, Anonymous bruce said...

For some reason I am on Janet's list but not David's.

That being said - Janet has had some smart mail come out. I live in Fairfax City and got one today clearly sent only to the city about city issues and talking about how Janet's independence is like how the city is independent of the county.

Interesting stuff.

 
At 9:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Constituent Criticizes Garvey's Record
Mount Vernon Voice, June 9, 2005

Dear Editor:

I think it is important for voters in the 45th District to know all the facts about who they are voting for in the Democratic Primary for the House of Delegates in June 14.

As someone who has lived in Arlington for 11 years, I am very aware of Libby Garvey's record as school board chair. Like many taxpayers I am very disappointed in her lack of interest regarding the runaway costs of renovating of Washington-Lee High School.

News of cost overruns and the proposed design exceeding local building rules leads me to ask where she has been during this fiasco?

Unfortunately, when Arlington needs her most, Libby has been running around telling people to elect her to the General Assembly because she is fiscally responsible. Give me a break. There is nothing fiscally responsible about the taxpayers of Arlington seeing cost estimates go up a million dollars a month. This kind of spinning is normally reserved for the Bush White House.

In addition to the project ballooning in costs there is also news of the proposed design exceeding local building codes by 30 feet.

When this was first proposed was anyone paying attention? It seems like they were not. As Chair of the School Board Libby needs to stand up and take responsibility.

With all of this happening in Arlington I am stunned that Libby is asking people in to give her a new job, when she clearly is not doing the one she already has. If this lack of attention and interest is any indication of the job she'll do in Richmond I pity anyone who would have her as a representative.

Mary O'Reilly

 
At 12:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's all you've got? A Republican argument by a fictitious person who wrote to a community paper from a community she doesn't even live in?

Last time I checked, no one on the Arlington County school board was responsible for the economic system, or for the insanely rising home prices/costs in Northern Virginia. The same forces that force up our housing costs also force up the prices of construction; 15% this year alone as opposed to an average 4% increase in the past five years. So yes, the costs of W-L rose nearly 4 times the norm and no one in any city or county could do a thing about it.

This is the reddest of red herrings, and anyone who looks into the matter is able to see immediately that the school board has done everything it can to deal with the overruns, as well as the design issue (the profile of the building has been redesigned so as to minimize the eyeline of the actual height).

If you want to blame someone for the cost overruns, at least be a Democrat and blame George Bush, the real reason why our economy is going to hell, and why cities and counties all over our nation are dealing with exactly the same kinds of problems.

Trying to put this on Libby is like trying to blame a single mother for not being able to keep her home in Alexandria.

If that's your idea of Democratic ideas, I don't want your candidate representing me.

 
At 1:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The winner in the 57th will face an R now...

 
At 1:11 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

And they will lose

 
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