Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Wednesday, June 08, 2005

37th District Update

Very interesting blog article at Raising Kaine with the Democratic candidates responding to our critique of them earlier this week. Big props for their graphic. Lowell, is there any way we can steal it?

Since Bulova says our analysis is wrong (surprise, surprise) we wanted to back it up a little more. Sorry Mr. Bulova but you brought this on yourself!

A friend emails us the following tidbits from Bulova's mail campaign.

NLS, you won't believe how horrible the David Bulova mail has been. The pictures which are all over the mail as the worst ones I have ever seen of a candidate. Here are the lowlights:

#1- "Preserving Our environment"- the picture is of David and two kids... I assume his kids. They are out near a stream. The kids look great, and like they are having a fun time out playing in the mud or whatever kids do. David the "outdoorsman" is in a $100 dress shirt and $100 slacks. He looks like he is a lawyer getting ready to sue the kids who look happy.

#2- "David in Classroom"- The first pic on this one is decent all the kids are raising their hands and David is at the board pointing to a map. The kids are about preschool age, 4 or 5. The bad picture is the second one. David is sitting with the kids in this one, on a preschool chair that is ready to snap, and they are all looking in the same direction with their hands up (wanting the teacher to call on them). He looks like a fool.

#3-"Safer Neighborhoods"- This one is the worst of all, and the picture the Republicans will use in every comparison piece until November. This one is David as a crossing guard, with one of those orange vests on, pretending to direct kids across the street. It is so fake, and he looks like a total fool.

Well Mr. Bulova, now you know what we know, and why no one should be skeptical of our analysis. You could still win the primary, and maybe even the general, but your campaign does not have momentum or traction from everything we hear. All we know is Oleszek has momentum. Whether that is momentum that takes her from 20% to 30% or if it is momentum that takes her from 45% to 55%, we'll find out on June 14th.

29 Comments:

At 8:56 AM, Blogger Kevin said...

"Well Mr. Bulova, now you know what we know, and why no one should be skeptical of our analysis."

I don't mean to nitpick because I generally like everything that you post but this is nonsense. Why shouldn't he be skeptical of your analysis? Is it the fact that you have ONE email saying that his lit sucks? I mean if I was going to call something "analysis" I would have a few emails to back me up and I would want to personally see the lit (I'm assuming you haven't).

I have no stake in either race but I might in other races. I just want to know if other conclusions are drawn just like this one?

 
At 9:21 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

NLS, I agree with Kevin that you are reaching a bit far with this post. I don't see how you come to a verdict that a campaign has lost momentum just because his mail piece has cheesy pictures on it.

I think Bulova has more momentum than you think. I will concede, however, that this is a very tight race - on both sides. I think Bulova-Oleszek is a virtual dead heat.

 
At 9:54 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I have seen a scan of the lit. I'm sorry for not pointing that out. It's really bad. I used the email because the way it was written was very funny.

 
At 9:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually I heard Boluva had a really good breakfast yesterday. So his campaign had the momentum at 7am.

But then Olecek tied her shoes a bit quicker than usual. The race swung to her.

But after that Boluva smiled in at someone in line at the grocery store and they smiled back. The race swung 10 percentage points back to Boluva. Later in the day, Boluva walked past one of those furniture stores and smelled that really cool pine smell. This made him happy and pushed him up to a 13 point lead.

Then, Boluva's came home and realized that his dog peed in several pairs of his dress shoes. This dropped his lead down to 4%.

Olecek regained the lead last night at 7pm when she walked on a sidewalk and managed to avoid every crack.

Then Boluva got it back at 7:05pm when he was found a dime on the ground.

His lead grew when he watched a really good episode of Law and Order, but shrunk back down when he caught his kid picking his nose and wiping the boogers on the carpet.

Olecek retook the lead at 10pm when she found a really comfortable pair of socks.

Then Boluva got it back after Olecek kept her husband up all night with her loud snoring.

Finally, Boluva lost the lead when his parachute wouldn't open while sky diving this morning.

RIP David Boluva.

Good luck in the general, Janet.

 
At 9:57 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

OK, I mean that last post was funny- but are you all telling me that terrible mail doesn't impact a race. Are you really going to vote for the guy in the orange safety jacket? I'm serious people, Bulova's mail was worse than Dukakis in the army tank.

 
At 10:15 AM, Blogger Kevin said...

Terrible mail can impact a race that's on a wide scale. I haven't heard anything about the lit...I live in Faifax and I believe that I am politically in touch with this area. This doesn't strike me as anything but superficial.

 
At 10:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Naw I was just having some fun. Terrible mail can hurt a candidate...but you have to come at it from a non-wonk perspective. People don't put as much thought into these pictures as us wonks do.

 
At 10:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agreed NLS, orimary voters don't like bad mail, it can doom someone.

Look at Jim Hyland's dick in the butt piece.

 
At 10:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's going to get deleted, but I'm going to go ahead and say HAHAHAHAHHAHA.

You republicans are crazyyyy man....

 
At 10:29 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I have to ask.... what do you mean?

 
At 10:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're so young and naive, NLS! That's just someone trying to be an ass.

 
At 12:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

He picture is ridiculous on this mailer (Hyland) that is. He looks like he is smiling for the camera while some guy is doing him from behind, it's outrageous.

 
At 12:28 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

NLS, I'm one of those weird hacks who thinks mail doesn't turn a race unless there is a load of it. I'm not sure cheesy pictures will halt momentum or swing it the other way. It has to be REALLY bad to do that. I haven't seen the piece, so you could have a point. But I'm still not willing to sign Bulova's death certificate - especially when the primary falls on a Jewish holiday.

 
At 12:31 PM, Anonymous Not Quintin Kidd said...

Olecek paid bloggers. Why isn't anyone talking about that?

 
At 12:57 PM, Anonymous Robert said...

Bulova's mail isn't the only mail in the race with some poor decisions.

I just got John Mason's latest piece about traffic. The license plates in his picture of gridlock are all from California.

This is on top of another piece where the headline is "John Mason has a plan for real estate tax."
I think he might have meant real estate tax relief or tax cuts or something but forgot the last word.

Makes me wonder if he will raise real estate taxes to fix traffic in California. :)

Don't know what Kaplan's mail looks like. Oleczeks looks OK.

 
At 2:35 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

That's terrible. I am embarassed for the 37th.

 
At 4:16 PM, Blogger 37thSentinel said...

Here's the truth:

When you relentlessly rag on one of the candidates with criticism that runs the spectrum from inane through obnoxious, to pornographic, two things happen:

1. Your criticism doesn't get taken seriously.

2. It reflects negatively on the other candidates - especially the one you are supporting if that can be determined.

I don't know Janet, but she doesn't strike me as someone who would break a positive campaign pledge and then pay someone to post the attack-drivel being posted here.

Substantive objections to a candidate or a neutral comparison between the candidates keeps voters interested. If you're going to crticize the opposition, do so in an honest and straighforward manner.

The stuff I've seen here does nothing but repel the serious and attract flamers who come here in the hope of getting into a fight.

All I could get out of the commentary on the Bulova mailing is that you don't support Bulova and that you're looking for excuses to trash him.

Your approach creates a sympathy effect for Bulova and reflects badly on Janet - Even though I don't think she would hire someone to attack opponents on this or any other blog, when I saw the posts about the Bulova mailing, the first thing that came to mind is that the posters are Janet's supporters - and perhaps paid to be here.

It's unlikely Republicans would be posting here in the primary unless they think that Janet will be easier to beat in a general election.

Even so, it sounds awfully Repiblican to me: When you have nothing to swing voters to your side, attack, attack, attack. Throw every bit of mud you can find or make things up and hope that something sticks.

Come to think of it: These spurious attacks also inidcate that you don't really think your candidate is all that great. Otherwise, you'd have some real facts that are meaningful to voters who haven't firmly settled on their candidate yet.

Again, please note that I am stating my reaction and what I belive will be the reaction of other voters reading this blog.

 
At 4:29 PM, Blogger Lowell said...

Sure, go ahead and use the graphic...credit to my tech friend Eric at Autumn Falls Technologies

 
At 5:43 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

37th Sentinal- I urge you to use the right hand side of our page to read the old posts on the 37th. We have critiqued every candidate in the 37th when they have screwed up. We blasted Oleszek less than two weeks ago. The fact is this: Bulova has been messing up more than any other candidate recently. We called him the favorite all the way until today. Eventually these mistakes have added up to us being unable to call this race. He may still win, this is a tossup, but cmon, dress pants in the mud????

 
At 5:46 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

In case you are a new reader, click here for an example.

 
At 10:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The 35th district stuff is up to 225 comments.

 
At 1:15 AM, Blogger 37thSentinel said...

Are You Sure You're Not Larry Sabato? Your posts over the last day or so sound just like him - or you - which is it? I'm really confused.

I've read it all - before I posted anything. If the mail piece isn't very good, fine. But, concluding that Bulova (or any candidate) is a loser because you didn't like the pictures just discredits the rest of your analysis. (Although, the Los Angeles traffic jam on a mailer in Virginia is pretty funny.)

The tone on this thread is all wrong and accomplhes nothing except to demonstrate how easy it get down on the ground and roll in the mud.

And, whether you are supporting Bulova, Janet, or someone else is irrelevant. YOur rant sounds like you're working for Janet. (Again, I don't think she'd do that. But, it does cross my mind when I read this crap.)

And, tolerating posts about how candidates look like they're getting screwed in the butt while having their picture taken discredits you, and has a good potential for turning your website into troll heaven.

I'm only thirty, but, some in my family claim I'm more of a prude than my grandmother. So, I may be over reacting to the butt business.

 
At 1:36 AM, Blogger 37thSentinel said...

By the way, have you seen the latest campaign filings? Bulova's blog says that he had more contributor than all thee of the other candidates added together.

Of course, that doesn't mean the trend hasn't changed over the last few days. But, given the finance reports, it is hard to imagine that a bad mailer would capsize Bulova's campaign.

And, you know, Bulova's photographer may have simply had a bad day and the campaign had to use what they had to get the mailer out. IN other words, its possible, maybe even probable that both Janet and David are sufficiently respected that a couple of goofy pictures won't rand to aywhat

 
At 11:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shutup Peggy Kugler

 
At 1:49 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Sorry for the last response, I'd prefer if everyone on here who posts that stuff would put their name on it....

In response to you 37th, I don't disagree. It isn't a huge deal. However, I think it is a much more important issue with a candidate trying to get out of his mother's shadow. It's like wearing a sign that says "Not ready for prime time".

You also said:

"The tone on this thread is all wrong and accomplhes nothing except to demonstrate how easy it get down on the ground and roll in the mud. "

Well, actually that was my point. In one of the pics, it wasn't easy to roll in the mud. David has hundred dollar slacks on....

 
At 6:14 PM, Blogger 37thSentinel said...

On David getting out from his Mother's shadow.

I don't see the issue there. Certainly, the Repubicans are proud of the Bush dynasty.

More important is whether David is qualified, has good positions on the issues, and is capable of executing the duties of his office effectively.

His mother is certainly relevent but only to contrast David's issue positions with his Mother's and to determine whether she brought him up to be a solid citizen of good character and integrity.

He's already served in one elected position and I've only heard general comments that he's doing a good job in his current position and nothing negative.

The hundred dollar slacks comment is interesting. Maybe he should have been wearing jeans.

But, something like that doesn't usually matter unless it reinforces an already establihed negative narative about the candidate. (Every time Bush makes a verbal error - like the other day when he said "disassemble" but defined "dissemble" - it reinforces the narrative that Bush is tupid.)

The implication of the "$100.00" slacks is that he is out of touch (remember Daddy Bush and the grocery store checkout scanner?), or that he isn't really interested in the environment (but, he's already serving as an elected official where he is doing envirnmental work. I'm not sure, but has been active in environmental causes and isn't his education in an environment related discipline?)

I haven't heard any comments from anyone that he is elitist, stuffy, or that he doesn't support diversity and equality - just as we hope all other Democrats do.

Which brings us back to "getting out of his Mother's shadow." If that's a negative narrative about David, then there are certainly things he could do that would reinforce that. But, slacks-gate doesn't do it for me.

 
At 11:16 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

1. I agree that the "mother's shadow" might slow Bulova's traction. Our society is okay with father-son legacies (Bush), but mother-son legacies make people uneasy. I don't know why, but maybe Not Sigmund Freud can fill us in.

2. The $100 slacks will get no traction in Northern Virginia. $100 might not even get you a pair of jeans up there. Same with the traffic vest. Eugene Delgaudio wears a cheesy orange hat everywhere he goes and keeps getting re-elected in Loudoun.

3. For the same reason, I don't see the link between contrived or cheesy mail pictures and a loss of momentum. Ray Allen might disagree with me, but I just don't see it. What will matter is how many people can identify the candidate who knocked on their door. Maybe Bulova should keep the traffic vest around.

 
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