Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Monday, June 27, 2005

35th District Update

Outlook: Leans Democratic

Incumbent Steve Shannon got a break when the GOP primary turned into something out of the Jerry Springer Show.

Emerging as a surprise to some analysts (not us, we were perfect) was Jim Hyland, a former aide to John Warner.

Hyland ran an almost flawless primary campaign giving himself a win despite being outspent 4-1. He obviously learned a lot from his 2003 Board of Supervisors campaign when he was spanked. Hyland emerged from that embarrassment as a much stronger candidate this year.

Our GOP source in Vienna tells us the Hyland general election kickoff was a great event and the food was excellent. We don't change ratings based on good food, but it does increase the chance of "Not Larry" covering your event in person!

According to our Democratic source, most of the Democratic activists are angry with Shannon and refusing to help his campaign over some of his votes. We have also been told Shannon has a real problem with keeping staff on board with him and basically has started from scratch in this campaign when no one wanted to come back.

While these factors look good for a possible Hyland upset we have this race as "Leans Shannon" for two reasons.

#1) Money- Shannon has always been an excellent fundraiser. He has a lot of cash in the bank, while Hyland who has not yet proven to be a good fundraiser in either of his campaigns spent what he raised for the primary. The July 15th report will tell us a lot about this race, Hyland has to catch up, and fast.

#2) Overeaching- We are seeing signs of a Hyland overreach after this primary. His website uses very strong language that "Steve Shannon has failed us", which may be too strong for this point in the campaign. Also, a GOP source complained to us that Hyland was lit dropping very partisan GOP lit from the primary to all homes in Nottoway precinct after the primary. According to the State Board of Elections website Nottoway is a very strong Democratic precinct that went for John Kerry by almost 300 votes. The piece apparently said Republican on it at least 8 times.

If Hyland can raise some money, and calm down enough to take a serious look at how to appeal to the vast number of independents in this district we could have a race on our hands. Until then, it's a "Leans Democratic" and something to keep on eye on.

UPDATE: NRR has a post up. He feels it is a little stronger to Shannon then we do. We really like NRR's blog a lot.

29 Comments:

At 3:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Check your sources... campaign manager former; Staffer in '03, Field Director; Staffer in '03, in fact all staff, minus interns is old staff.

 
At 3:15 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

My source told me the former manager "Bet" won't return his calls and the former field director "Sheila" is out helping the Hyland campaign.

Please tell me where my source was wrong so I can correct.

 
At 3:43 PM, Blogger Not Mark Rozell said...

I've never seen campaign staff for a delegate's race "come back," so if he can get any of them to work again he's pretty lucky. It's generally a different bunch of faces every two years. That's just the way it goes.

To my knowledge Shannon has had only one legislative assistant, Connie Houston. My source tells me she is still there.

 
At 3:43 PM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said...

I don't think the language in the website is too strong at all. It'll certainly motivate the GOP base, and it'll remind Dems why they aren't supporting the incumbent in the first place.

Plenty of time to moderate the message. It's only July after all!

 
At 3:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I know the field director. He knows what he's doing. Very talented guy.

 
At 3:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

for Shannon, that is.

 
At 4:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your analysis is at odds with Not Mark Roberts:

not_robert_roberts said...
no, I never said it was. I'll be reporting on that later. I think Steve Shannon will win with at least 54%


Blog feud!!!

 
At 4:10 PM, Anonymous TLM said...

Oh please.. Steve has pissed of some Dems with his votes, but we are not that stupid to give up a seat. And Steve can be re-educated...unlike his role model Chap. At least Steve has made an effort to take the heat..sort of.

 
At 4:17 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Anonymous 4:04- I think "Leans Democrat" is right in line with NRR's pick of 54%. I respect NRR very much.

 
At 4:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wouldn't "Leans Democrat" mean that Shannon won by 84% to 16% and wouldn't "tossup" mean that Shannon won 63%-37%?

 
At 4:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually I think "leans democrat" would mean that Hyland moved to Yugoslavia for the entire campaign period, stepped on a mine on October 31st, and was blown to smitherines.

"tossup" would be the race where Steve Shannon won 84% to 16%.

 
At 4:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No I think the Yugoslavia scenario is still a tossup. Hyland's entrails could be mailed back to the states and they might still legislate better than 80 out of 100 of the members of GA.

 
At 4:51 PM, Blogger George Hincapie said...

I was just making a post about this race, you can see how our opinions differ a little at:
http://notrobertroberts.blogspot.com/

 
At 10:12 PM, Blogger Hylandisacoward said...

FYI-Shannon's former manager is a senior consultant on his race, his new manager was his field director, and his volunteer coordinator is now his field director...seems like good retention to me.

Hyland's people should be worrying about retaining votes to avoid the embarrassing upset that they faced last cycle.

Can anyone say "Sacrificial Lamb"?

 
At 1:01 AM, Anonymous Where's Shaula? said...

Shaula was field director in 03. Now she works for Hyland.

 
At 1:49 AM, Anonymous Deuce said...

Color me skeptical. Last I heard Shaula was consulting for Oleszek. She is a Democrat through and through and I find it very hard to believe she would be working for a GOP candidate, particularly one as partisan as Hyland.

 
At 7:14 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Deuce- My sources said people weren't coming back, not that they were campaigning for the other guy. I'm skeptical also of this report of Shula for Hyland.

 
At 8:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

People did come back. Your sources are wrong, NLS.

 
At 9:32 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Show me on VPAP where his new manager was paid in 2003 and I will correct

 
At 10:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Check the virginia commonwealth victory fund, that's where he was paid, along with a bunch of other field directors from across the state

 
At 10:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

For the record I do not believe Not Larry Sabato is a journalist because even the most silly journalists would not publish this kind of crap that pretends to be political analysis.

While he/she says that Hyland won an impressive primary while being outspent 4-1 he/she then goes on to say the district leans Shannon because Hyland didn't raise a lot of money.

His/her sources apparently are about as accurate as those that said Renquist was going to retire.

And, based on his/her notes he/she was not perfect on this race but consistently promoted Robinson. Guess that is what the sources told them to do.

Unlike other candidates that have lost trying to hide their party affiliation in NOVA looks like Hyland is out front, good for him.

Not Larry Sabato should stick to paying activities and get out of his/her dark basement and meet some real people once in a while.

 
At 11:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't lie people, I was a volunteer for Shannon and SHAULA was the field director, and a damned good one. The new manager was basically an intern sent from Richmond while SHAULA won the campaign for him. Now that he turned his back on SHAULA he will lose the seat like the dirty ho he is.

 
At 11:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Last anon:

I completely disagree with you, but that was funny as hell.

HA HA HA HA HA

 
At 11:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't laugh at what SHAULA did for him. SHAULA put him into office. SHAULA can take him out.

 
At 11:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I worked as a staffer on a campaign that beat Jim Hyland, and let me tell you this: He is a clueless campaigner who wants only to hold elected office. He'll flip-flop and try to mold himself to please 57 different audiences, but in the end, people are smart enough to see through Hyland's facade. My prediction: Shannon wins with at least 56%, probably more, but Hyland still runs for yet another office in 2007 in an attempt to win a consolation prize.

 
At 11:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shaula is Canadian, haha that sucks

 
At 5:43 PM, Anonymous Freddie said...

What is so good about Shaula? How did she win the race for Shannon?

 
At 9:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It would be interesting to see what people think about the Hyland campaign when they stop focusing on his poor run for Supervisor and look at his almost flawless run against Robinson. He has a lot of tools he never had before and it shows. I hope Shannon keeps underestimating Hyland, it will be the last thing he does as a delegate.

 
At 9:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The primary is over. All party people helping a opposite party candidate better hop back to their side of the fence. Nobody forgots those kind of actions and it leads to a short political experience.

-BK

 

Post a Comment

<< Home