Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, June 14, 2005

11:30

Seven and a Half Hours to go!!

This thread is for your midday poll numbers.

Here's what we are hearing, both from your posts and others

* The Richmond area Bolling/Baril numbers are not good in turnout.

* Connaughton and McDonnell seem to be doing better in their areas with turnout

*McDonnell has advantages in other regions as we discussed yesterday so his stronger turnout makes him a solid favorite to win (at least so far)

*Bolling has a slight upperhand in other regions so Lt. Governor may come down to the wire.

* Byrne numbers have fallen off as the day has gone on, while Chap numbers have been rising. Anybody could win right now.

* 45th District turnout is very low.

* Craddock looks like a favorite going into the afternoon, while Kenney still has an even shot to pull the upset.

* The Low turnout may give us a few House surprises tonight.

57 Comments:

At 11:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What is your comment about Leslie's voters not comming out and Chap surging based on?

 
At 11:46 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Leslie's precincts are slowing down, they moved quick this A.M. now they are slowing. Meanwhile Chap's City precincts started moving fast at 7 am and from what we hear haven't slowed down. That having been said, Chap needs more help to win, but he could not ask for a better scenerio then what is happening right now.

 
At 11:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS: What are you hearing in the 45th? Same low numbers in all precincts?

 
At 11:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about chap's precincts in Tidwater? He is the only candidate out there... are those comming in "D"

 
At 11:49 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I just had a Dem source tell me on the phone that the 67th felt like 75% Craddock at the polls this morning. Craddock is standing at this poll declaring "Jesus has brought these voters to me". That is a direct quote, my source had a cell phone and I heard it myself.

 
At 11:53 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Nothing new to report in the 45th. When I know something you will know!

 
At 11:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

67th turnout numbers (all 11:15)

Lees Corner West

R 106
D 22

Lees Corner East

R 52
D 13

Rocky Run
R 139
D 17

 
At 11:58 AM, Blogger Kevin said...

"Jesus has brought these voters to me"

Oh crap Jesus is here...better repent now...I can't wait for the Dems to take this guy out in November...

 
At 12:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

late posting - sorry - I was tied up in meetings all morning.

45th district
3rd precinct (blessed sacrament)
7:40am
I was the 57th Dem voting

 
At 12:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am a practicing Catholic and do not appreciate Craddock telling voters that "Jesus has brought these voters to me." For those who have not voted yet, get out and vote for Gary Reese NOW! Craddock has been deceiving the voters about Reese's record.

 
At 12:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In the 45th - at Fairlington Precinct-

9am Numbers

Democrats - 114
Republicans 31

 
At 12:06 PM, Blogger Kevin said...

"I am a practicing Catholic and do not appreciate Craddock telling voters that "Jesus has brought these voters to me." For those who have not voted yet, get out and vote for Gary Reese NOW! Craddock has been deceiving the voters about Reese's record. "

Well it did say something in Revelations about Jesus bringing out voters in Virginia to help elect a 26 year old soccer coach...I always thought that was a little too specific but I now see that I was wrong.

 
At 12:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

11:45 Fairfax City #5

Repub 78
Dem 206

 
At 12:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

12:30 pm report:
Saratoga precinct (Fairfax County, 42nd district) - 63 gop 38 dem
albon precinct (fairfax county) 14 gop 4 dem

 
At 12:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Fairlington numbers look good for Garvey, but the Shirlington numbers did not. Who knows, though.

 
At 12:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Roanoke County
Cave Spring High School
47 total- not sure of the split but you can probably assume mostly Rebublican

 
At 12:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

extremely low turnout at my precinct in 93rd. had the polling place to myself (literally) at 8 AM. it was something like 9 R's and 5 D's at that time.

 
At 12:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Roanoke County
Masonic Lodge- not sure the precinct but that's where they vote-- maybe the Cave Spring precinct

Chap Voter reported 26 Dems and 46 Republicans at 12:45

 
At 12:49 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

NLS: What's the deal with this chat room later tonight? I want to publicize it on my blog.

 
At 12:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

p.s. this blog made The Hotline today so you can now charge $10k and up for appearances like Real LS. sweet.

 
At 12:54 PM, Anonymous Informed Patriot said...

Chesterfield County:

Noon- 12:30

Belmont- 12 R, 7 D
Five Forks- 44 R, 14 D
Manchester- 43 R, 18 D

No one working the polls

 
At 1:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

any word from the 33rd?

 
At 1:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Over at Commonwealth Watch someone is reporting that the 33rd is going to break 8%

 
At 1:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

At 11:30 AM -
Fairfax County
Mason District
Columbia Precinct

82 voters. I was not able to get the breakdown of Rs/Ds.

 
At 1:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Prince William County
Woodbridge High School
55R
9D
11:30AM

Hope that helps

 
At 1:45 PM, Blogger Politicl.Animal said...

26th District, Harrisonburg:
Keister Precinct, 10 am: 17D, 28R
Simms Precinct, 1:15 p.m.: 30D, 55R

Chap! is the only Democratic candidate with presence in Harrisonburg.

 
At 1:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

33rd
Leesburg West
125

 
At 1:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Any word from the Scott/Jarvis race in the 30th?

 
At 2:06 PM, Anonymous Maggie said...

Didn't see that there was a mid-day post, so this is a duplicate from the post below this one:

Virginia Beach
Precinct 039 - Pembroke
1:30 pm

111 Republican
20 Democrat

This is highly unusual, IMO. This area usually runs 52% repub. 48% dem. It's one of the few "close" precincts in usually republican Virginia Beach.

I overhead several of the older ladies working inside gossiping to one another. They claimed that several of their democrat friends had been in today, voted republican and voted for Bolling. True or not? Guess we won't know until the polls close & we get the counts.

Only 1 poll worker - for Wardrup only. No signs for Bolling or Baril. (Signs up for Kilgore, McDonnell, Connaughton, Wardrup.) 1 sign for Byrne - gosh that's the only one I've seen in all of Va. Beach for her. 1 sign for Chap!

 
At 2:14 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

The numbers in the 67th are way too lopsided to spell a huge victory for Craddock, despite what his supporters are saying here.

I'm not saying Gary Reese will win, but I'm betting those high GOP numbers and woefully low Dem numbers in the 67th spell a tighter race than Craddock will admit. There are definitely Dem crossovers represented in there, even though this is a solid GOP district and there is no local Dem race to draw them to the polls.

Remember, I have said all along this race would go for Craddock. Now I'm having second thoughts. There are too many firefighters and teachers involved on the ground to put this in the Craddock column.

 
At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Kevin said from the Anonymous practicing Catholic: I'm glad you've seen the light!

 
At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Kevin said from the Anonymous practicing Catholic: I'm glad you've seen the light!

 
At 2:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Kevin said from the Anonymous practicing Catholic: I'm glad you've seen the light!

 
At 2:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a resident of the 67th, I can tell you now that the Loudoun County portion of the district will go for Craddock in a big way. Many of us moved to areas in Loudoun like South Riding to escape Fairfax's tax-happy government. Craddock has done a fantastic job of blanketing the Loudoun portion of the 67th the past several months. Reese was a no show until the past 2 weeks. There is also a sizable evengelical population in the area.

Frankly D's voting for who they perceive to be the stronger R candidate is idiotic. If anything, shouldn't they be turning out for Craddock if they feel he is the weaker candidate. They have they own now in Caputo. This crossover talk is backwards at best.

I was 1 of 3 people voting R at 7:15 and more were showing up as I left. Craddick will win this race...easily.

 
At 2:54 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

NMR, my source at the poll tells me that it was like Craddock's party his reaction was so good.... I won't have to see much tonight before I mark this straight into the Craddock column. It may be over 60%

 
At 2:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a former resident of the 67th ( I moved away to get away from the libeal direction of the county), I have to agree with Rozell and not the previous anonymous. Reese has been heavily recruiting dems to cross over because he knows he stands no chance to win on his record in a highly conservative district. In his first primary race about 4 years ago two conservatives ran against him, effectively splitting the vote and he won 40% to 30% to 30%. The district is highly Republican, but the numbers I've been seeing imply to me an additional turnout by dems as well as possibly high turnout by conservatives. I am not saying Reese will win, but it may be closer than one would think. BTW Craddock has not been misrepresenting Reese's actions. Reese has made some terrible decisions and votes whil in office and deserves to be turned out, even if Craddock were to lose in the fall.

 
At 3:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hampton
Asbury Precinct
1:52 PM
121 Republicans
72 Democrats

 
At 3:18 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Do not ever underestimate the VEA, the PTA, and the IAFF. All three of these groups still have an incredible ability to put boots on the ground when they get their act together. These three groups were all very involved in Kathy Smith's head-scratcher of a win for the school board, and they've been pulling out all the stops for Reese too.

I'm not saying Reese will win, but it is difficult for me to see these lopsided turnout numbers making it a Craddock rout.

 
At 3:22 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

NMR- I would agree with the numbers alone. I am talking to people on the ground. The voters are very clear what they are doing. All those Kathy Smith people are at the polls encouraging Dems to vote for Craddock- and handing out Caputo material...... don't know if you knew that. In fact Kathy herself is doing it at Rocky Run....

As of 3 pm
Rocky Run
197 R's
24 D's

 
At 3:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NMR, You forgot Craddock's endorsement by the Lollipop Guild.

 
At 3:26 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

NLS, I knew they were both out there passing out literature, but did not know they were being that blatant about it. Still, I can't see that alone having much of an impact. Just about everyone going to the polls today knows knows who they will vote for.

I'm not willing to call it for either candidate right now, but neither do I think a rout is likely.

 
At 3:31 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Just got some news from Navy (Reese's home precinct). No one has voted in over an hour and the turnout there is the LOWEST in the 67th.....

I will be ready to call this one when the first precinct comes in, unless the result is shocking.

 
At 3:33 PM, Anonymous not mark rozell said...

I just changed my mind. I'd like to call the 67th district for Dave Albo/Tom Davis. They get the seat, and will be fused at the hip for the rest of their lives.

 
At 3:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It doesn't at all surprise me that Dems are doing this in the 67th either. If Craddock wins, it will be a very bloody campaign. The nuts from "Right to Read", the PTA leadership, NEA, etc., etc. will be declaring Craddock a "Dominionist" (in new left wing conspiracy theorist lingo) and will stop at nothing to marginalize him. Like I said earlier, this will all be fine and good. If Reese loses today, we all win. In the fall if Craddock wins, great, another conservative in the House. He will follow the lead of more experienced legislators like Hugo, O'Brien, and Cuccinelli. If he loses, we can start the campaign to get a more experienced conservative in there in two years.

 
At 3:48 PM, Blogger Not the Prince of Darkness said...

Anonymous 2:57's line of ..."Reese has made some terrible decisions and votes whil in office and deserves to be turned out, even if Craddock were to lose in the fall." Just reaffirms my faith that Grover and the boys must be still serving that Kool Aid on this hot primary day

 
At 3:51 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

NLS, the 3:33 pm NMR post did not come from the real NMR. He should have called himself Not Not Mark Rozell.

Gotta love those trouble-makers. :)

 
At 3:54 PM, Anonymous not not not mark rozell (or am I not?) said...

my apologies.

 
At 4:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I would not be so sure Reese is gone. Turnout at Waples Mill is high. Turnout in Lee's Corner is pretty good for a relatively Demo area. Turnout in Rocky Run is good. And when I was at these precincts, I saw some Democrats carrying flyers from Reese...some saying they were there to vote against Craddock. Is it enough? We will know soon enough. But I do not see a blowout here. Not at all. I think you would be making a big mistake to call this on one precinct.

 
At 4:51 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

We report. You decide. We'll know soon enough anyway.

 
At 5:18 PM, Anonymous Informed Patriot said...

More Chesterfield:

Providence at 1:30- 78 R, 19 D
La Prade at 1:30- 110 R, 32 D
St Lukes at 2:15- 86R, 12 D
Deer Run at 2:45- 120 total (largest precinct in county)

Of the 12 precincts I visited, I saw one Bolling guy in the morning, two Kilgore (one each in morning and this evening) and two Kaine people this morning. I was stumping for Connaughton and got lots of good feedback.

 
At 5:58 PM, Anonymous Farrington Firehouse said...

Been moving around Hanover County for part of the day. McDonnells precinct workers are out in force, outnumbered maybe by the Hargrove folks.

I saw a mini-spat at the polls earlier when a Hargrove worker started to try to hand a voter a sample ballot that had Kilgore, Bolling, Baril, and Hargrove on it, but didn't say who it was authorized and paid for by.

Frank Hargrove himself was on the scene at the time, and a college aged young man volunteering for McDonnell astutely pointed out that that sample ballot was illegal. Funny thing is that Frank Hargrove endorsed McDonnell in this race, but he immediately responded that he'd have his people stop handing these ballots out. The ballot was allegedly illegal because nowhere on it did it say "authorized and paid for by Steve Baril" who is apparently who paid the freight to get these printed, or so I was later told.

I really don't think it will matter. Again, McDonnell has people all over Hanover, and I only saw these ballots in one place.

On the turnout side of things, just about every precinct that I visited in Hanover was on pace to crack eight percent. Pretty strong relatively speaking.

Another interesting fact was the presence of Ryan McDougle signs in most precincts, including some Hargrove precincts... From where I sit, it looks like Ryan McDougle is already campaigning for Bill Bollings seat should Bolling win, which I think based on the high Hanover numbers and low numbers elsewhere, he will.

 
At 6:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Turnout in the 35th is higher than the other precincts in the surrounding area. It's not high, but it looks like about 3,000+ folks will vote in the primary. That should help Ed Robinson win since he knocked on more doors and had a bigger mailing list, and probably does better with the GOP at large than he does with the party leadership. Of course, that's a guess. Turnout at 4:30 in Wolftrap Pct was 224, Leehigh was 127. Anyone hear anything else?

 
At 6:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I voted in Sleepy Hollow pct of Fairfax County, which used to be in Leselie Bryne's old Senate seat and her Congressional seat. At 9:35AM GOP turnout was 13 and Democrat turnout was 14. If that is a snappy turnout for Byrne, I'll eat my proverbial hat.

 
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