Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Update on two Richmond Races

71st District
Old Primary Outlook: Likely McClellan
New Primary Outlook: Toss Up

We admit it. We were flat out wrong with what we told you last week. Melvin Law in addition to support from Mayor Wilder has nailed down support from all five Richmond Councilmembers in his district, the Virginia Education Association and now the Richmond Crusade for Voters. (Thanks to Not Paul Goldman for pointing this out as it happened last night).

For those of you that don't know, the Crusade, while losing influence as it ages, is still the most important African American endorsement in Richmond by far.

We had heard the Crusade was going to endorse Law, and we planned to rerate this race "Leans McClellan" to show his momentum. But another development last night makes this truly a tossup. McClellan is banking on her support from Del. Viola Baskerville to help her as they share a ballot on June 14th. The Richmond Crusade for voters endorsed Leslie Byrne last night. We had heard this rumor yesterday- and laughed at our source when they told us this. Well the egg is on our face!

This shows Viola is much weaker then we thought. Even though she will still carry her Delegate district, it will be much closer, and that really hurts McClellan. We'll watch this one closely, but Law is really making a move here.

We'll have an article on the statewide races soon- and how they are affecting these house races.

74th District
Old Primary Outlook: Toss Up
New Primary Outlook: Leans McEachin


We rated this "Leans McEachin" to start, then changed it to a tossup when the DPVA refused to share the voter file with McEachin. That was dumb. A good source of ours yesterday pointed out: "McEachin doesn't need the voter file. All he needs is a list of all the people who voted in the 2001 primary for him for Attorney General in that district. He already will know who will show up on a nice June day for him."

Wow. We totally didn't connect that at all. McEachin doesn't need the voter file. We are returning this race to Leans McEachin like it started. And it could get ugly here. Not just the campaign, but the results.

24 Comments:

At 2:13 AM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

Nice calls on both races NLS...I am more bullish on Law and McEachin than you are...but at least we are analyzing in a similar fashion...thanks for sharing the credit..NPG

 
At 10:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is huge. Crusade for Byrne?!?!

 
At 10:35 AM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

Yep....as far as Baskerville's state wide ambitions are concerned...in the words of Dick Motta (coach of the old Washington Bullets for those of you to young to remember)...the opera for Baskerville is over and the fat lady is about to sing.

 
At 11:27 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

NPG- Were you there? My source tells me Chap Petersen showed up and blamed his old campaign manager for not scheduling a meeting with them. Smart move Chap- go to a meeting of African Americans- and blame the black campaign manager you fired.

 
At 11:36 AM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

I was there but I did not here that statement....by the way..my sources tell me that there are 5 polls out that show Byrne with a big lead...these sources are not associated with any LG campaign

 
At 11:38 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I know of 2 first hand. Both show Byrne way up, Baskerville second. One shows Chap third, the other shows Phil third

 
At 12:51 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Are you serious? Dammit. What the hell are these Democrats thinking? Could one of you guys get me a source for those LG polls? I'd really appreciate it.

 
At 1:30 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I have a policy of not giving out sources- not only would that hurt my info gathering, but it would ruin my anon online identity. Maybe NPG can help.

 
At 1:31 PM, Anonymous jen mcclellen said...

I fought the Law.. and the Law won

:(

 
At 1:42 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

Can't reveal my source either...but I can say that two of the polls are Kaine internals and one is a Byrne poll....

 
At 1:52 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

NPG- Very interesting. That means my 2 are different from your 3. So I guess there are 5 like that.

 
At 3:22 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

That's all I wanted to know, actually. Just that they were legit - not who you got them from. I'll assume it was from someone in a back alley in exchange for a bag of crack:)

One thing I'd like to see more of on this site is issues. I know local elections are often decided by turnout, demographics, and likeability, but there are plenty of local issues in these districts that will play a big factor as well. I'll be highlighting a few in a couple of days when some news breaks, so you can look forward to that.

As much as I enjoy 20 anonymous posters saying "Lohr's got the big mo! Nobody takes Fulk seriously!" I think there's more to it than that...

 
At 6:43 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

More bad news for Baskerville....Lionel Spruill will endorse Peterson tomorrow....I wish I fully understood this one...but I don't...I understand the Richmond rebuff....but someone will have to help me with this one...in the inteest of full disclosure...I am glad to see this

 
At 6:51 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

NLS....You know the 74th with 21 precincts in Henrico (more Henrico precincts than any other House seat..I think) should not be referred to as a Richmond Race. It is as much Henrico as the 72nd...NPG

 
At 7:40 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I know that. Sorry. The addresses are all Richmond though. :) I think I noted that in a previous write up on the 74th and how Supervisor Thornton from Henrico may play a large role.

 
At 7:41 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I made one quick call on the Spruill thing and was told that has been done for a while, that Spruill was scheduled to introduce Petersen as early as last state convention, before they cancelled all introductions. I had not heard either, and I don't know the politics behind it.

 
At 11:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Spruill was one of Chap's early supporters and I believe one of the very first electeds to tell Chap he would support him. One thing that that campaign has done is build a solid base of endorsements in the tidewater area- Chap's always thought that was important. I guess Lionell just likes Chap more than Viola.

 
At 11:50 PM, Anonymous Deuce said...

jen mcclellen?

Nice try pal, its McClellan -- Giving a pre-post-mortem, are we? How debonair...

"Fought the law and the law won..." How cute, except Jen is a lawyer and lawyers don't fight the law, they apply it.

You know, the election is still a month away and it is a little ridiculous to call this race over. As they say, the only poll that counts is on election day!

 
At 1:15 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Agreed Deuce, too early to call. Law has some mo- but its not over by any means.

 
At 10:33 AM, Anonymous Judge Dredd said...

I AM THE LAW

 
At 5:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No, Melvin is the law. And he's sending Jen to that democratic prison called LOSERVILLE where she can hang out with Larry Frame and talk about election losses and how no one would listen to them... (even when they were in charge)

 
At 9:58 PM, Anonymous Not NLS said...

Here's some food for thought on the McClellan/Law lineup: supposedly, all five of the council members in the district are "supporting Law." I spoke to one of them today who says no such thing, and another has been seen going door to door with McClellan. NLS - who are your sources??

 
At 4:43 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Hey there not NLS. I wrote that in the comments last week after I read it somewhere in the mainstream media, i think. I'll look around today and figure out where I saw it.

 
At 5:49 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

In the 71st my understanding is that Jen has dropped two pieces of mail already....Law is set to arrive in mail boxes this week (maybe as early as today). I have not seen Jen's mail...but I understand that Law's first piece is rolling out Governor/Mayor Wilder

 

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