Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Thursday, May 26, 2005

Statewide Primaries (Republicans)

The Republican party with both a deep party bench and a large party rift is going to have a much more exciting June primary than the Democrats. Here's the lowdown:

In the primary for Governor former Attorney General Jerry Kilgore is taking on Warrenton Mayor George Fitch. Fitch is not a bad candidate, but this is not the right campaign for him. Kilgore has taken a large lead and will crush him on June 14th. Fitch's campaign may be a favor to Kilgore- a Governor's primary will attract more voters than a downballot primary. Because of this primary, expect the GOP to nearly double the Democrats in turnout on June 14th. This will serve the Republicans well, as their last two major primary lists (2000 and 1996) were infested with Democratic crossover (for McCain and John Warner). This list will give Kilgore a grassroots advantage with organization and fundraising. Come June 15th, Tim Kaine may be wishing he had gotten a minor primary opponent.

For the downballot House primaries, the Kilgore campaign is going to have a slightly positive effect for all of the incumbents running. By ensuring decent turnout, the challengers will have to appeal to a broader group of Republicans to unseat the incumbents. It's not a major impact, but will help them a little.

Looking towards November, a Kilgore campaign's effect on the general House races is hard to tell. If conventional wisdom is correct that Kilgore is weakest in Northern Virginia, it could hurt the Republicans with some of the closest House races are up there. However the same conventional wisdom has Kilgore winning by a large margin in western Virginia, perhaps giving an advantage to Republican challengers in increasingly GOP leaning southwest Virginia.

The GOP primary for Lt. Governor is a heads up battle between Senator Bill Bolling of Hanover County, and Sean Connaughton, Chairman of the Prince William Board of Supervisors. This has been the most fun to watch as both candidates seem to have the exact same message. "I Cut Taxes. He Raised Taxes!" The advantage is to Bolling here. The Richmond area will outvote the DC suburbs in a Republican primary. For Connaughton to win, he has to take Hampton Roads. While biographically, the area is very close to Connaughton, they are closer to Bolling ideologically. Because of that we expect to see a fairly even split here. If Connaughton is close going into western Virginia he has a shot. Bolling's organization is suspect there, and many voters may be looking out for the strongest running mate for Jerry Kilgore. Connaughton will win those voters that are looking to help Kilgore.

Overall though, Connaughton probably needs Southwest, Hampton Roads and Northern Virginia to beat Bolling. It's hard to see all that falling into place.

Looking towards November, Bolling doesn't do much in the competitive House races. Richmond area seats are pretty safe for both parties.

A Connaughton upset in the primary would be a major boon to Republicans running in Northern Virginia. In particular, it would make us re-evaluate the McQuigg-Porta race (currently likely GOP, with Connaughton would become safe), the Frederick-Barg race (currently toss up, with Connaughton it would become lean GOP) and the Albo-Werkheiser race (currently lean GOP, with Connaughton it would probably stay there instead of trending towards a tossup). In addition, if Chap Petersen and Leslie Byrne both lost the other primary, and Connaughton won here, we would have to take a look at it's impact on the 35th, 37th and 41st.

In the Attorney General's Primary, Delegate Bob McDonnell is taking on Richmond attorney Steve Baril. This one seems to lean towards McDonnell, although a lot of questions remain. If Baril can hold the Richmond area vote, he will have a chance to win. A similar dynamic may be working out with Bolling/Baril in the Richmond area as Kaine/McEachin in the 2001 primary. If both Bolling and Baril push a large turnout of their voters, and then get the others voters in the Richmond suburbs it could double the impact of Richmond. However, our sources tell us that Baril and Bolling don't get along and may have trouble keeping it together to pull that off.

We think Baril will win the Richmond area by less than Bolling and get crushed in Hampton Roads. Like Connaughton he will need to win the other two areas of the state (Northern Virginia and Southwest). McDonnell should have enough endorsements to hold him off in both areas- so McDonnell looks like a good bet for the nomination.

Being from Richmond, Baril won't have a big impact on the November House races if nominated.

McDonnell would impact at least two of our currently competitive House races. His open seat which is rated a likely Republican might be safe if McDonnell is on the ticket. Also, the 87th District, which is a tossup rematch between Paula Miller and Michael Ball would be impacted with a McDonnell victory as having a Hampton Roads candidate on the ticket would boost GOP turnout and help Ball. That race has otherwise been trending towards a lean democratic, so a McDonnell win would help keep it as a toss up.

Specific House Primaries

23rd District

Outlook: Safe Bryant

Preston Bryant was one of the leaders of last years budget, and is being challenged by former Lynchburg Councilman Robert Garber. We've already called this one for Bryant, Garber got in too late and has not run a strong enough campaign to defeat the incumbent.

30th District

Outlook: Toss Up

Freshman Delegate Ed Scott is being challenged by local minister Mark Jarvis. This primary will be decided on turnout. Jarvis needs a strong turnout from his base of support in Culpeper. If he can get that he can win this election. Ed Scott is looking for crossover support to help save him. A weak incumbent, plus a strong campaign by the challenger leaves this race as a total tossup.

33rd District

Outlook: Leans May

Joe May has gone back and forth as a conservative Republican, and a moderate Republican. His vote for last years budget brought him challenger Chris Oprison. Oprison moved here to run, had some issues with his petitions, and is being widely outspent. Yet, May has still not put him away. Outside of the lack of local knowledge, Oprison is a good fit for this district.

Oprison also has one card up his sleeve that we haven't covered yet. A large part of the 33rd is in Russ Potts Senate district. These Loundon precincts went overwhelmingly against Potts in the 2003 primary. So Oprison has a list of conservatives willing to show up in June, and vote out an incumbent. Not bad. Joe May has the advantage, but this one isn't over yet.

35th District

Outlook: Toss Up

The 35th, once represented by JeanneMarie Devolities (pre-Davis) is now held by Democrat Steve Shannon. The Republican primary to challenge him is a tossup between Ed Robinson and Jim Hyland. Both have strengths and weaknesses, but it is beginning to appear that Robinson will be the stronger candidate going into November. Hyland knows more people locally, so this one should go down to the wire on election night. Either candidate will be a slight underdog to Shannon in November.

37th District

Outlook: Leans Mason

The primary for Chap Petersen's open seat is getting hot and nasty. Jim Kaplan has been attacking the late entry into the race, former Fairfax Mayor John Mason. It might stick some and lower Mason's margin, but it is hard to imagine the former Mayor losing to Kaplan who has very little knowledge of this district. In fact, as of tonight, Kaplan still hasn't even updated his website to note he has a primary in 20 days. Mason has been endorsed by the current Fairfax Mayor and most of the Council- all of which were very active in his 2002 defeat for re-election. Expect Mason to move into the general election as the slight favorite over the Democratic primary winner.

41st District

Outlook: Likely Golden

Michael Golden who got into this race as a conservative challenger to Delegate Jim Dillard has now become the clear frontrunner to be the GOP nominee for his open seat. Primary opponent Bill Finnerfrock is still running his campaign from 1989 for Delegate, and hasn't made much progress in the last 16 years. This one won't be that close- and will set up an exciting November tossup.

50th District

Outlook: Safe Parrish

We've discussed this one enough. Harry Parrish will easily defeat his challenger Steve Chapman. After the campaign, the over/under bets on the jail sentence are at 18 months.

54th District

Outlook: Toss Up

The 54th district is the best chance for an upset of an incumbent on primary night. Challenger Shaun Kenney has done a great job in his campaign against incumbent Bobby Orrock. Combined with Bolling turnout on election day, Orrock has an uphill fight to hold his seat.

Our sources tell us Democratic Committee members are openly supporting Orrock and planning to crossover in this primary. It's a good strategy for Orrock- it may be the only way he can survive. If Kenney loses VCAP may go 0-5 against incumbents.

55th District

Outlook: Safe Hargrove

In Hanover County, the most conservative County in Virginia, one of the most conservative legislators in the state Frank Hargrove is being challenged by an aide to the most liberal Republican Rod Clemmons. If it were not so strange it would be pretty funny. Hargrove will crush him in what may be the biggest blowout of the night.

67th District

Outlook: Toss Up

2nd term Delegate Gary Reese is being challenged by conservative activist Chris Craddock. This will be a very close one. Reese won the nomination four years ago with 39% of the vote, with two more conservative candidates splitting the other 61%. If Craddock can get those same voters to the polls he should have the advantage. Conservative Senator Ken Cuccinelli also represents this district, while he has not endorsed his organization is pushing Craddock hard. Reese is looking for the crossover help he got in 2001, we'll see if it is there for him again.

82nd District

Outlook: Leans Purkey

A real fight has broken out in Virginia Beach for a House of Delegates seat! Incumbent Bob Purkey is being challenged by Virginia Beach Councilman Peter Schmidt. Our GOP sources tell us this is splitting the party- old versus young. Purkey's incumbency gives him the edge, and older voters are more likely to vote in this primary. But don't count out Schmidt who represents all of this district and more on the City Council.

83rd District

Outlook: Safe Wardrup

Incumbent Leo Wardrup is being challenged by Delceno Miles, a local education activist. Miles is a good candidate, but she doesn't have the resources or organization to defeat Wardrup. She will be a force to be reckoned with when this seat becomes open.

87 Comments:

At 8:03 AM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

Not sure I agree with you on th LG race. Connaughton will bring out higher than expected numbers in NOVA with his base in PWC and the help of Tom Davis in Fairfax. There are some misconceptions about Connaughton in Prince William. A small but very vocal minority dislikes Sean, but he is extremely popular with most Republicans in the area. His campaign has done a good job getting out the vote and it should show on June 14. As for Hampton Roads, Sean has recently secured the support of many local officials. That, combined with his military backgorund and support, will put him over the top here. That said, the inroads he's made in the West/SouthWest should be enough to offset Bolling's advantage in the Richmond area.

If he pulls this off (and I believe he will), it will certainly benefit Kilgore in November. Connaughton can help boost support in NOVA, which will offset Byrne or Peterson. In his own race, he should beat any of the four Dem. candidates. I'm not sure Bolling can and brings baggage to Kilgore that, in a three-way race, could throw the election to Kaine.

 
At 8:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Agreed on Connaughton.

 
At 8:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Club for Growth is strongly behind Bolling...this will be a real test of their strength in VA.

 
At 8:22 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not saying I disagree with your Connaughton analysis generally, but how can you assess his GOTV effort 2+ weeks out? Maybe he's done a good job creating positive campaign momentum and/or identifying voters, but you can't judge GOTV until the last week.

 
At 8:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I also agree with Mitch on Connaughton.

NLS: You do a great service to political junkies, and your knowledge of Virginia politics is most impressive. However, I will quibble on another point:

Jim Kaplan takes the primary in the 37th district. You underestimate Kaplan's organization, drive, and fund raising. Mason entered too late to counter all of this. Mason also lost re-election badly to his Mayor's seat in Fairfax City (63-37). He is not all that popular in FFC, a locality that is only a part of the district (maybe one-third?). Plus, a lot of crossover voters are going to vote in the D primary to help Chap! Petersen. Sold Rs stick with Kaplan.

 
At 8:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS: Just interested to know what has happened in the 87th to cause you to say that it is "trending towards a lean democratic". I have found it very difficult to find out any information about this race, so I'm curious to know what developments have taken place. For a race that has the potential of being highly competitive (again), it has certainly been a big disappointment so far (I might be wrong about this, but it does not even appear as if either candidate even has a web site up yet).

 
At 9:32 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

NLS - I think your handicapping here is pretty much dead-on, with a couple of exceptions (naturally).

I think the Lt. Gov. race is open season. Connaughton is a strong candidate for the GOP in the general, but it's going to be very tough for him to get past this whipsaw primary. After three years of ignoring his Senate seat so he could campaign, Bolling still has not been able to lock this one up. There may be some party activists who just can't hold their noses long enough to vote for Bolling.

I'm going to go even further out on a limb - I think Connaughton is the one candidate who draws some crossover in NoVa. There are many Dems upset at their own choices, and Connaughton is widely seen as a Tom Davis protege who is more a good-government type than a rabid partisan, all recent campaign literature notwithstanding.

One other point I do want to quibble on is the 37th. I can't see Mason pulling this one off, but only because he and Chap! (who is upticket) will be fighting for the same electorate. In any other set of circumstances, Mason would clean the floor with Kaplan.

I think it is a hoot that Lederer can endorse the former opponent he spent months demonizing. Strange bedfellows, as they say.

 
At 9:53 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm not bashing Sean. All I'm saying is Richmond suburbs always outvote DC suburbs in GOP primaries. That gives Bolling a lead going into the rest of the state. If Sean get take Hampton Roads big enough to go into Western VA even, he will win. I just can't make the numbers add up to see that happening.

 
At 9:56 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Mason may be hurt by sharing voters with Chap- but you are all crazy if you think he loses to Kaplan. Mason is the "unity" candidate to keep that seat in City hands. He wins.

 
At 9:58 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

On Mayor Lederer- He attacked Mason on one issue- growth. One particular development in the downtown. Otherwise they agreed for 15 years on almost every issue.

 
At 10:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How does Connaughton effect Werkheiser vs Albo any more than other NOVA races? I understand that he's a moderate...but the 42nd doesn't include any of Prince William County.

Plus, I wouldn't be surprised if many Connaughton voters go for Werkheiser.

 
At 10:31 AM, Anonymous Delegate Ward Armstrong said...

I'm the only legislator that Mrs. Davis didn't sleep with while in the House.

 
At 10:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There’s this raving lunatic that stands outside the metro every morning. He always has a sign that says something funny or bizarre – sometimes it’s “BUSH KILLED MY NIECE IN COLD BLOOD” or “IRAQ BUSH CHENEY HILLARY BLOOD OIL DELAY?” or some other gibberish. He mumbles to himself and occasionally shouts at people that I can’t see.

Well today the sign said “BUSH EATS HUMAN FLESH”

I just about fell down on the ground laughing.

 
At 11:08 AM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

Not Larry:

I'm curious about where you're getting your expected turnout numbers from. It's been a while since we've had statewide GOP primaries of this magnitude. While I don't necessarily agree on your assessment of Richmond vs. NOVA in general, I'd like to see some numbers.

Looking back in recent years, the only real statewide primary of note was the 2000 Presidential primary. Now, I know that in many ways it's apples and oranges and that there wasn't a competing Dem. primary on the same day, but the totals from that primary paint an entirely different picture. The vote totals were:

Richmond area: 91,899
NOVA: 235,123
Hampton/Beach area: 105,911

Of course, I'm making some assumptions about what counties are included in each area. But I think it's important to also note that the turnout percentages in NOVA were equal to or better than Richmond.

The bottom line is: I don't think anyone has a clear grasp on who will come out and where. And this is the question that will decide the LG race. Any insight on this?

 
At 11:09 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Answering Question on 42nd:

Connaughton is very well known along the Prince William border. Most of the community activists down there cross over with Prince William activists, esp. in the areas of the 42nd under the low density (5 acre) housing rules.

 
At 11:16 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Mitch, any federal race Northern Virginia crushes everyone else. Anything non federal Northern Virginia drops off. You're right, it's been a long time since NoVA had a contested state primary on the Republican side, but its hard to see them turning out like that again. It's possible- I am only making my best guess using numbers from non statewide GOP primaries in Northern Virginia.

Also of course, George W. Bush won Richmond and Tidewater in the race you mentioned- while tens of thousands of democrats crossed over for Mccain in Northern VA.

I'm thinking statewide the turnout is approx:

GOP: 350,000
Dems: 200,000

Now on June 15th I'll really have egg on my face!

 
At 12:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Mitch (or others): What "baggage" would Bolling bring to Kilgore?

 
At 12:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

None of this is to suggest everyone should judge Bolling solely by his cover

No one could surely be that vile.

 
At 12:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If in doubt of Bolling's vile image see this pic:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/25/AR2005052501945.html

 
At 12:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"30th District

Outlook: Toss Up

Freshman Delegate Ed Scott is being challenged by local minister Mark Jarvis. This primary will be decided on turnout. Jarvis needs a strong turnout from his base of support in Culpeper. If he can get that he can win this election. Ed Scott is looking for crossover support to help save him. A weak incumbent, plus a strong campaign by the challenger leaves this race as a total tossup."

That looks like easy money. How much are you willing to bet on Javis?

 
At 12:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about the 35th Race? It seems to me that Robinson is the only candidate with an active campaign. Sure Hyland knows more people but can he really beat Robinson's money and grassroots effort?

 
At 1:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anon- next time you are outside Metro and see that guy with the signs- remind him its primary season and he needs to fit in. Here are some suggestions for him:

Bolling eats human flesh!

McDonnell had sodomy first!

Votes Indicate that Petersen eats Bush!

Byrne: Not just for bra-burners!

Fuck It. Vote Puckett.

 
At 1:13 PM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

Anonymous:

In terms of the Bolling baggage, I don't think we've heard the last o the Reciprocal issue. Connaughton has not pushed this, but you can be sure that the Dems and media will push it hard as November gets closer. I'm not suggesting that he did anything wrong, but his response to the article printed several weeks ago in the DC Examiner was pathetic. Instead of addressing the issues, he simply (and incorrectly) blamed Connaughton for planting the story. There are still many questions to be legitimately answered and, until they are, his future opponents will go after him. He could have done both himself and Kilgore a favor by simply answering the questions and not losing his cool. Instead, he continues to look like he has something to hide.

 
At 2:09 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Regarding the 35th and Robinson's money:

Is he really going to spend ALL of it before June 14th? All $100,000?

 
At 2:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The race in the 35th is pretty interesting as well. I went to a candidate forum on Tuesday with candidates from the 35th and 37th put on by the Mamie Eisenhower Republican Club--a really blue-haired group of people.

Robinson has improved a lot as a candidate, but I found it humorous that he used the phrase "pissed off" at least 4 times in front of this older and more conservative audience.

Just an observation from the campaign trail.........

 
At 2:46 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Oh god...the anonymous Hyland/Robinson people are back. Kill me now.

 
At 3:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am the 2:12 pm anon and was not on that stupid blog posting train on the 35th District race. I am more interested in the Kaplan-Mason contest. The Robinson comment was just a report of what I saw at FCRC HQ on a rainy Tuesday night.

Wahoo: don't be so quick to leap to conclusions. I am not saying that ppl should vote against Ed Robinson because he said "pissed off" a few too many times. I just think it was less than appropriate to use that phrase in front of a blue-hair crowd. Perhaps that is the mark of a less-than-seasoned candidate? Let's leave the locker room language out of candidate forums.

 
At 3:54 PM, Anonymous Sorrel said...

I thought it was an excellent analysis. The best I've seen on the LG race so far. I suspect it's quite accurate: Bolling strong around Richmond, Connaughton needing to offset that strength in NoVa and HR. It's very hard to get a grip on this race because, despite Bolling's efforts to monopolize the "Conservative" brand name, there's absolutely no ideological difference between these two. It comes down to difference in life experiences, demeanor, skill sets, and accomplishments. I'm closer to you than to Mitch on how easy it will be to offset the Richmond area advantage. I with both of you on the idea that connaughton helps Kilgore much more than Bolling come November. As the campaigns clear the primary and move toward the general, Republicans will have to sidle back toward the center to prevail, particularly in Northern Virginia. Connaughton is no liberal (despite Bolling's strange assertions to the contrary, but he draws very well among all sectors, primarily because people find him personally likable and because he has provided top-notch govenrmetn services in Prince William and forced Fairfax to do better to try to keep up. So Sean will draw well in the general in Northern Virginia, despite increasingly Democratic trends up here. Watching this place get more and more 'blue" is sort of like watching the minute hand on a clock. If you look closely, you can see it moving. Finally, I would be interested in NLS or anyone else with educated estimates of turnout in June, R, D or both.

 
At 3:57 PM, Anonymous Brian Helmich said...

For those like Mitch who continue to say that Cannaughton will win because of Tom Davis's help I would like to pose an answer to a question: Jane Woods, Jack Rust, Tom Bolvin, & Mychelle Brickner.

The question: Name the candidates' who have all lost in recent years after receiving the backing of Tom Davis and his team. In fact, in the case of Woods, Rust, and Bolvin, those were the only legislative races that Democrats have picked up in the past 6 years- all were races that Davis guaranteed he'd take care of.

The facts are pretty clear: Davis has a thin track record of getting people who don't live in his house elected in Virginia.

 
At 4:02 PM, Anonymous WAhoo Dan said...

2:12 anonymous:

I apologize. I'm just so jaded by that long discussion that I had a hard time believing anyone had legit comments about the 35th.

 
At 4:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

brian. that's hilarious, and could possibly apply to the 42nd as well.

 
At 4:21 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Sorrel-

I'm thinking statewide the turnout is approx:

GOP: 350,000
Dems: 200,000

 
At 4:21 PM, Anonymous sorrel said...

Davis's support doesn't hurt, but it probably is less of a factor now than it might have been a few years ago. My guess is that Connaughton will poll well in Fairfax, PW, Arlington, Northern Stafford and Eastern Loudoun with or without Davis. Sean may be as big or bigger a draw than Davis these days in those ares. How he'll do in the rest of the state, I have no clue other than I am hearing more chatter from the west about needing Sean to help Kilgore. Not so many votes out there though.

 
At 4:46 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Wahoo- I was also jaded on the 35th. Thank goodness that is staying it that one thread....

 
At 4:46 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Brian, the failures you mention here hardly denote a huge fissure in the Davis machine. Rather, you have given fine examples of races with either subpar candidates or subpar districts. These are all situations where even Davis couldn't pull it off.

Remember, even the Byrd guys lost one every so often.

 
At 4:49 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

GOP anonymous who was at the Mamie Eisenhower event..... what were the biggest issue differences between the candidates in the 35th, and same question about the 37th.

 
At 4:51 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Not Mark- I was looking forward to the first post looking back fondly on the Byrd machine. LoL

 
At 4:52 PM, Anonymous sorrel said...

NLS; sorry about that hiccup on my last comment. seems like you're getting enough trade without duplicates.

 
At 4:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

At that event I heard that Hyland flat out called Robinson a Dem. Is that true?

 
At 4:54 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

No prob sorrel, you're my favorite blogger today

 
At 4:55 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

454 anon- Maybe the Dems and the GOP cut a deal? The 35th GOP would nominate a Dem to oppose Steve Shannon and the 41st Dems would nominate a GOPer there?

 
At 4:56 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

(That was a joke by the way)

 
At 5:46 PM, Anonymous Sorrel said...

NLS: why do you think so many more Rs than Ds turn out? I take it much of the answer is that Kaine and Deeds are unopposed. Still, I don't think there's much going on in the Fitch/Kilgore race, and the 4-way Dem LG race ought to be a draw. I've asked a lot of political veterans about this turnout issue. The GOP number I keep hearing is 200,000. It may be that no one really has any idea and they just all tell each other the same thing and then pass it on to amateurs like me. Your estimate is considerably higher. I take it Mitch is in the same ballpark.

 
At 6:16 PM, Anonymous not Ted Koppel said...

Have to take issue with the toss up analysis on the 30th. I grew up near there and I can tell you that Jarvis has a bunch of baggage. To claim that Culpeper is where his strength is just wrong. If anything that is where the people know him best and know he would not be a good Delegate. His strength is in Madison and they just don’t have the numbers there. You might be putting too much trust in the anti-tax crowd. Their message that Scott is a liberal is not going to hold. Scott is well known and will be going back to Richmond. But, what do I know?

 
At 6:20 PM, Anonymous Tom Davis said...

Are there any woman here? I'm looking for a one night stand.

 
At 6:20 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Tell me more about Jarvis's baggage. I'm willing to change ratings if you can make a good case

 
At 6:21 PM, Anonymous Senator Devolities-Davis said...

Tom! How dare you!

Hey mitch :) Wanna party?

 
At 6:23 PM, Blogger Pastor John said...

my blog endorsed jarvis. he will crush the homosexuals with his bear hands, or with wooden clubs, or with bibles soaked in liquid nitrogen.

 
At 6:24 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Cmon guys- stop with the Davis-Devolities sex jokes. They were funny when they were both married and having affairs. They both did the right thing and married the person they wanted to live with. I think when they got married those jokes became inappropriate.

 
At 6:27 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

sorrell- right or wrong I will share my formula June 15th. I think you would all make too much fun of me if I gave it out now.

 
At 6:33 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In the 30th, Scott will outpoll Javis-Sharman by 30+ points in Madison. Jarvis will lose in Orange, Madison and Orange counties and nearly all the precincts. He's a mental light-weight with a single tune, unpopular local backers and VCAP (outsider) support.

A Madison Republican

 
At 6:40 PM, Blogger Virginia Centrist said...

Kenney vs Orrock

Awkward insertion of pro life stance.

Enjoy.

 
At 7:07 PM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

Anyone hearing anything new on Reese-Craddock, Purkey-Schmidt or Bryant-Garber?

 
At 7:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS: In answer to your question about the Mamie Eisenhower forum an the 35/37 races---

The questions did not reveal a ton of difference among the candidates. The event was not rancorous--except for that thrown in by Jerry O'Dell, a FFC gadfly famous in the area.

All 3 candidates in the 35th are pro-life. Both Kaplan and Mason in the 37th are pro-choice. All the candidates agreed to endorse the eventual Republican nominee.

In the 35th, Robinson started by saying that his big $ and the campaign that it buys has "pissed off" the other candidates. He also seemed to argue that he is the most serious, aggressive candidate and will be in November. He talked a lot about taking the campaign to Dems, Indys, and into the minority community.

Hyland continues to be smoother and to have a better grasp of the budget. He did not call Robinson a Dem as someone suggested on this blog.

Purves is not worth mentioning.

In the 37th, questioners hit Mason on his lack of GOP bona fides and his tax-raising days as mayor of FFC. (I am not sure if either point is valid.) He defended giving money to Sharon Bulova because they are such close friends and doing so would help FFC. He also bragged on his work on the 2020 transit plan, which Kaplan reminded him had slipped to the 2030 plan.

Kaplan was very smooth and stressed his grassroots organization and that he was willing to step up and challenge Chap! before he ran for Lite Guv. He stressed the importance of looking at this seat for the long-term and building up seniority a la Callahan and Albo to help Northern Virginia. He reminded those present about his work in Congress and the legislature--Kaplan claims he can build coalitions with other delegates in the GA.

 
At 7:45 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

What are your leanings? Are you more impressed with the long term strategy (i.e. "I'm going to lose to the Democrat), or to the win now, groom later strategy?

 
At 8:05 PM, Anonymous Brian Helmich said...

Not Prof. Rozell-
you've made my point. Having the support if the "Davis machine" is not a guarantee of anything in VA politics, even in Northern Virginia. For people to say that Connoughton is going to see any real benefit from Davis' support would run against recent electoral history.

And for the record, I didn't bring the point up to give everyone an excuse for free airing of old jokes.

 
At 8:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS:

Mamie Eisenhower Anon again: You misunderstood my point about the 37th seat. Kaplan argues that since he is young (34), he can win the seat now and begin to build up seniority over time like Vince C. and Dave Albo. He argues that getting power in the General Assembly via the cmte. structure is the only way to help NOVA get its "fair share" of the $. Mason, OTOH, is 70 and will probably only want the seat for a few terms---maybe just two. That is not the way to build seniority in the lege.

NLS: Love your blog, but you continue to underestimate Kaplan.

 
At 9:56 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

OTOH?

 
At 9:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mamie Eisenhower again:

OTOH="On the other hand." :-)

 
At 10:10 PM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

Sorry, Jean-Marie, my wife would kill me.

 
At 10:14 PM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

As far as turnout goes, I'm at a loss. I think a higher turnout helps Connaughton, particularly in NOVA and the Hampton Roads area. I hope that NLS is right on the 350k mark. But isn't this what campaigning is all about? Needless to say, I'm doing my part. Pray for a nice, sunny day with nothing better to do than go vote in the GOP primary. I'll vote early and often ;).

 
At 12:28 AM, Anonymous mitch's wife said...

It's OK honey... go for it. Just know that when you get home, I'll be with that big hunk Harry Parrish.

I apologize. That was simply wrong. Harry Parrish is a good man who has been married to the same woman for longer than all of my children combined have been alive. Ironic then that no one is taking a serious look at Harry's opponent's "family values". I know some of the women with whom he has cohabitated in the last few years. Should he, by some tragic miracle, win the primary, I will be sure to introduce them to the Democratic candidate in that race.

 
At 12:37 AM, Anonymous mitch's wife said...

Let's set the record straight here...
Jane Woods, Jack Rust, Tom Bolvin, & Mychelle Brickner all got the party's nominations. That's what Sean is fighting for right now. If the question is Tom Davis, then the answer is that Bolling is toast in Northern Virginia.

When Sean ran for Chairman in 1999, I didn't think he could win over the Dem. When Sean ran in 2003, I didn't think he could also overthrow the Dem. sheriff at the same time. I'm done underestimating Sean and the Bolling supporters should buckle their seatbelts, becasue the ride is just going to get rougher come Primary Day.

 
At 5:41 AM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

See? Now you got my wife all riled up. God help us all.

 
At 6:35 AM, Anonymous NoVA Scout said...

sheesh Mitch! At 0541 aren't you supposed to be milking th ecows or something?

 
At 7:56 AM, Anonymous Not Ted Koppel said...

Not Larry

I am not trying to evade your question, but I don’t think this is a place for discussing baggage. All Davis jokes aside, I am not one to air someone’s dirty laundry – especially if I was not a personal witness.

I will tell you that I would bet the Jarvis had just as many people against him as for him in the heavily populated Culpeper. His message - bringing God back into government - plays strong in Madison, but they don’t have enough votes to sway this. He has the help of Mike Sharman that lost the primary race a number of years ago to Delegate George Broman. Since then the new voters have become less and less strident on social issues. Actually, a bunch of the voters are more in tune with DC politics since they commute and you may as well think of them as Northern Virginians.

I know you were looking for specifics on the baggage and I apologize for not giving them to you, but I hope you understand.

 
At 9:24 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I understand... but I can't change the rating without more information than that. I've heard he is a very popular local preacher.

 
At 9:36 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

NoVa Scout: Mitch probably couldn't sleep because they got his wife so riled up. :)

Brian: I think you missed my point. Yes, the Davis Machine has lost some elections. Big deal. No one wins all the time. Each of these races had other problems that Davis could not fix, from candidates who didn't work hard enough to a candidate who was a bad fit for the Fairfax County electorate. The Woods race, on the other hand, is still pretty painful because of what it did for Leslie Byrne. But Dobey stayed in as a spoiler and there was nothing anyone could do about that.

Connaughton is a much stronger candidate than some of those others, he works very hard, and it's a straightforward two-way race. Don't count him out yet. I'm not thoroughly convinced he'll win, but I also didn't think he could topple Stoffregen.

 
At 9:42 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

NLS - I think you should take down the Davis/Devolites affair comments as well as the strange allegations about Chapman and his exes. Let's keep this debate focused. The last thing you want to do is have a forum for any old crackpot to publish comments of this nature. I think it erodes what you are trying to do.

I feel that I should be exempt because I'm a special type of crackpot. :)

 
At 10:04 AM, Anonymous Logan Ferree said...

Interesting analysis, I am wondering how the eventual teams will match up against each other. It looks likely that the Democrats will have Kaine-Byrne or Petersen-Deeds, which is a rather geographically balanced ticket. I agree with you that Bolling will likely win, and McDonnell, which to me seems less geographically balanced than the Democratic ticket.

What's your prediction for how much Kilgore will defeat Fitch by?

 
At 10:10 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

It's up to Jason Kenney, our official "comment nazi" (he requested that particular title).

Jason, do they stay up or not?

 
At 11:50 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

logan, both of those tickets are balanced. If that was the case the GOP would have western va, Richmond and Hampton Roads and be missing Northern VA. The Dems would have Northern, Richmond and Western and would be missing Hampton Roads. Since there are only 3 one of those will always be missing.

 
At 2:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh please. These republicans try to run as family values freaks and they're sleeping with anyone and everyone.

 
At 6:41 PM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

I know I am!

 
At 7:31 PM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

Well, here's an interesting turn of events. The obviously articulate and sensible lady going by the handle "Mitch's Wife" is, in fact, not my wife. Boy was I shocked when I congratulated my wife on her comments, only to have her reply: "Huh?"

So, "Mitch's Wife," feel free to e-mail me. If I'm married to multiple women, I should probably address this.

PS - We don't have any children, do we?

 
At 7:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Steve Baril is the leader and favorite in the AG race for GOP...He's outraised McDonnell substantially! and he will easily win his hometown of Richmond

 
At 8:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think that Kaplan is being grossly underestimated. I know the grave unjustice committed against him just a day and a half before the filing deadline. The absurdidty of a 70 year old man who cannot even muster a serious grassroots operation defeating a 34 year old with a great family who is leterally working non-stop is as far fetched as anything I have read on this blog. If Mason does somehow win not only would it be a real shame for the voters of the 37th District but it would be an extreme mark of dishonot to Mason character and that of many other so-called notables in the area (Jack Rust).

 
At 3:10 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Welcome, Mr. Kaplan.

 
At 9:44 PM, Anonymous mitch's wife said...

NMR: I suppose that NLS can take down my comments about Chapman if he chooses, but I take umbrage to your lableling them "allegations." It is common knowledge that Chapman has cohabited with mulitple women over the last few years, marrying none of them as far as anyone can tell. Further, I have met some of them and know that at least one does not consider herself to be a grass-roots supporter of Chapman.

That being said, it seems that you and I agree on most other issues, including Sean Connaughton's chances, so I'm ready to be freinds and move on.

Jason Kenney and NLS: Take the comments down or don't, but I don't think anyone benefits when the person making the decision lables him/herself a "nazi", irregardless of the adjective before it.

Mitch, darling: Please apologize to your real wife for me. I'm sure that Mrs. Cumstein is a lovely woman and far more articulate than I. I assure everyone that Mitch and I have no children, nor any other trappings of marriage (including but not limited to, marital relations). Indeed, I do not even know his real identity. I suspect, however, that if we were to meet and discuss politics (and we weren't both married to other people) that we would find we have a lot in common.

 
At 6:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Still too early to joke about "nazis"?

 
At 10:03 PM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

Mitch's Wife:

I have no doubt we'd have a lot in common. In fact, I'd be surprised if we didn't already know each other.

And, by the way, it's never too early for nazi jokes. They deserve to be ridiculed at every opportunity.

 
At 2:43 PM, Anonymous mitch's wife said...

Mitch: Are you suggesting that calling Mr. Kenney a nazi is a way to ridicule a nazi? That's faint praise for Mr. Kenney and I don't even know him.

I guess that what I mean was that the implication of that nickname could be that Mr. Kenney would exterminate comments that he doesn't like the same way that the nazis extrerminated people that they didn't like. That analogy just leaves me feeling all icky inside.

 
At 2:49 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

No, No No. What the analogy was there was an old Seinfeld episode. Remember the soup nazi?

 
At 3:29 PM, Anonymous mitch's wife said...

I'm sorry, but I'm not familiar with that reference. I'm assuming that "Seinfeld" is a TV show, but I don't watch much TV. Are there really programs about nazis? If so, I need to do a better job of monitoring what my kids watch. I recently discovered that my teen-age daughter watches a program about a bunch of scantilly-clad twenty-something witches.

 
At 8:36 PM, Blogger NOVAGopChic said...

You're pretty close but McDonnell is actually a heavy favorite. Baril has no natural base and McDonnell does. Connaughton is making a race of it and has an outside chance but doesn't seem to have the organization in Northern Virginia that he needs. In the delegate races the 30th has never been competitive. For Jarvis to lose would be a HUGE upset. The top tier races have always been the 33rd and the 67th. Oprison is raising money like a wild man and that district has LOTS of new GOP voters who don't have any allegiance to May. It will be close. In the 67th Craddock would win 60-40 if it was a closed primary. Reese's only chance is the Virginia Ed. Association's effort to get Democrats to vote in the Republican primary. Both campaign's initial polling showed Reese in dire straights and Craddock has a lot of money and troops. Reese can still win, however. Parrish should win easily for obvious reasons but the House and Senate GOP leadership are terrified of this race for some reason. The 54th has always been a second tier race but Kenney has an organization. You may be right about this being a tossup.

 
At 3:56 PM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

NO COMMENTS FOR YOU!

(sorry I'm late)

 
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