Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Wednesday, May 11, 2005

A shout out to the blogosphere (50th, 41st, and 67th)

I've been scooped on three fronts while I was busy at work today.

First, on the left, Democratic Candidate Dave Marsden chooses Howard Dean's Virginia Blog, to respond to allegations that he worked for Senator Ken Cuccinelli, a conservative Republican. It's down near the bottom, currently second from last. After you skip through the blah blah blah blah, it appears Mr. Marsden admits working for Sen. Cuccinelli, but states that it "meant to benefit Jim only, not Senator Cuccinelli." I won't say anymore, I want to know what you all think about this.

On the right, John Behan covers a new allegation against Steve Chapman, challenger in the 50th House District. To sum it up, Chapman's dog was run over last August, when he lived outside his district, and now he is going to court for it.

Chapman painfully points out his dog was named "Nixon". I'm sorry Steve, but while you are facing 10 years in prison for lying, did you just figure out a way to get Richard Nixon's name next to yours? What were you thinking?

We had downgraded this primary to "Likely Parrish" on the chance Chapman could use the original felonies charged against him to his advantage. I think everyone will agree, he didn't/couldn't, so the 50th will go into the winners column for Parrish.

Finally our friend Will Vehrs has a link to column this morning on GOP challengers all over the state.

Warren Fiske is normally a very good writer there and only handles stories occasionally (he's semi retired, semi writing books) but he missed the story here. I'm guessing from the last two playoff games he is a Wizards fan. You see, the Wizards lose when they get no assists. And primary challengers lose when they get no assists. While Craddock has a shot at an upset, skipping Kenney was a stupid move. Craddock has to upset Reese on his own, while as I noted before Kenney is getting an assist from Bill Bolling in GOTV that day.

Now, what do you all think?


At 10:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Marsden is clearly trying to beg the left for support by posting on DFV. Does anyone think he has supported any of THEIR causes?

At 11:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS, there is another post on DFV since you posted. As Matt Drudge would say "SLAP"

At 11:43 PM, Anonymous roanoker said...

I think the House is conservative enough, that's why I don't want any VCAP people in

At 1:38 AM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

NLS, looks like you've gone and exposed your Republican partisan leanings by describing the Democracy for Virginia blog as "Howard Dean's Virginia blog".


At 2:06 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Who said that was anything bad?

At 2:08 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Can I just add I thought it was interesting that someone being accused of being a Republican posted that on not just a Democratic site, but a site with more progressive Democrats?

And yes Maura, like you I am apparently sleep deprived tonight. (I have an excuse- work, what's yours) :)

At 2:10 AM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

What's the antecedent of "that" referring to "anything bad" in your question: DFV being "Howard Dean's Virginia blog" or you being a Republican? ;-)

At 2:12 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

DFV being Howard's blog. I thought that was a fact, not an attack.

At 2:17 AM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Oh yeah, the ironies abound in this little blogarific saga. :-) I'm working on a fun little main page post about it, still deciding whether to go live or not. BTW, I'm meeting Dave Marsden himself tomorrow night. I'll be bringing my "Real Democrat" mood/decoder ring.

The host committee for the event is a who's who of progressive young professionals, so if anyone gets a whiff of Kuccinelli in Marsden, there could be violence. In case the decoder ring doesn't give me a clear answer, we could always throw him in the Potomac and see if he floats. ;-)

BTW, I'm up for quite the opposite reason - I don't have to get up for work tomorrow, so I'm indulging!

At 2:20 AM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

You'll forgive me for spelling Cuccinelli incorrectly since it's after 2:15AM, after which all blog comments may contain spelling errors, right? That's written down somewhere in the Big Book of Blog Rules, I believe.

At 2:23 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Please give us a report on the floating when you get back. Go ahead and post it we'll give you another link.

Seriously Maura, my question for you is this:

Which piece will be mailed first:

a) The Marsden piece to R's saying Cuccinelli endorsed him and using those favorable quotes

b) The Golden piece to D's saying Cuccinelli endorsed Marsden and using those quotes


Y'all have a weird one going there.

At 2:40 AM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Well, both campaigns could team up and save on graphic design and printing costs, right? Just change the header and flip which pics are in color and which are in creepy black-n-white. ;-)

Seriously, here are the "money quotes" from what Dave posted on DFV:

"the Democratic Party stands for the best interests of Virginia voters"


"the Democratic Party represents the real interests of Virginians"

Seems to be that those are not equivocal statements that Marsden can easily later back away from and jump back to adding an (R) after his name. So it seems to me that anyone, at this point, who's anonymously griping about him not being a "real Democrat" and speculating about him winning the seat as a Democrat and then caucusing with Republicans is just plain deluded. Or just a Republican who's enjoying stirring up the pot!

Of course, if Dave wins and immediately peels off a Newly Minted Democrat mask to reveal a bwa-ha-ha rabid anti-sex anti-tax radical beneath who gleefully skips up to Dick Black, Bob Marshall, and Ken Cuccinelli, embracing them (platonically, of course) and celebrating their trickery over Democrats like me, feel free to rub it in my face. :-) I'll then return the decoder ring and sue the manufacturer for millions before tort reform passes.

BTW, if it's Howard's blog, he really oughta go to sleep so he can rest up and run the damn party already.

At 2:44 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

One question before I go to bed Maura. If the Democratic Party stands for the best in voters, why was he working for Cuccinelli and Gilmore?

At 3:02 AM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Well, I firmly believe we all deserve a chance at redemption in our lifetimes, no matter how egregious our past errors. :-)

I don't think Dave Marsden has ever claimed to have been a lifelong Democrat. Not that he's going to advertise his past affiliation (at least to identified Democrats in the 41st!) but I haven't ever seen either him or his surrogates try to claim that he's always been a Democrat.

I'm just sayin' (at 3AM) that it seems to me that you can't just publicly write "the Democratic party represents the real interests of Virginians" and then caucus with Republicans (as some anonymous posters in the blogosphere have speculated he'd do).

Of course it's all kinds of fun to speculate about secret plots and all...but couldn't it just possibly be true that as the Republican Party in Virginia has not only moved more and more to the radical religious right, but is more controlled by extremists who oppose responsible investment in Virginia public infrastructure, that a person like Marsden who's spent most of his life working for a system that depends on responsible government investment would come to conclude that his values are better represented and his work would be more respected in a different party?

Seems at least possible to me.

At 9:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm with Maura. It's possible. However, it's also unlikely.

At 10:20 AM, Anonymous ben tribbett said...

I can see how Maura thinks that is possible. It is. People flip parties sometimes with good intentions.

But take it from people that know the truth in this case- Marsden can not be trusted.

At 2:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks Ben, I agree!

At 5:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shut up and start talking about something interesting (like Chapman and Nixon and Liddy)

At 7:03 PM, Anonymous Jim E-H said...

NLS, I requested a piece from the Marsden campaign to post on DfV after meeting with his field director, just as I said when I posted it there. In addition to wanting to cover as many races as possible on DfV, they were specifically looking for more grassroots volunteers right now, and I thought DfV would be a good place to look. I checked out his stated positions and views and what I could dig up on him before I posted it, and it all looked pretty decent to me. (I'm a liberal myself, and would love to have more liberal candidates, but I'm also a native Virginian, so I've learned to be happy with incremental progress.) I was well aware that he was an ex-Republican; I hadn't heard anything about accusations of him still being a Republican, since I don't have the stomach to read right-wing blogs.

It doesn't seem unlikely to me that the protege of someone the Republicans dub "practically a socialist" could be acceptable to progressives. If there's anything that we should know about, by all means point me at it, but everything I've seen thus far barely qualifies as a tempest in a teapot, with conservatives and anonymous trolls doing their best to turn up the heat.

At 10:57 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Thanks for the message Jim. Are you in that district?

At 12:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree with you NLS, Craddock is strong, but not as strong as Kenney

At 1:53 PM, Anonymous alexdem said...

it's a heckuva dilemna. Very glad we don't have that here. Despite what the candidates say about each other in the 45th they are all Dems and good people. I can't imagine having to pick between a conservative R, and a Cuccinelli D.


At 6:09 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Ok. Here's the deal. My friend (and his parents) live in that district. They're all Republicans. They loved Dillard (despite what the right-wing echo chamber is claiming). And they're voting for Marsden. Marsden will win.

There are perhaps 10 people in that district who are angry enough at Marsden to not vote for him. Then you have about 100 anonymous comments by Republicans pretending to be Democrats. It's all very clever.

At 6:10 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

excuse me: I meant 10 Democrats angry enough not to vote for Marsden. Once people see how crazy Golden is, first they'll laugh their asses off, and second they'll vote for Marsden.

At 8:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Golden will pound Marsden like Cuccinelli pounded Mitchell. Same self-deluded arguments by dems about how people would see how radical Cuccinelli was and beg for Mitchell to represent them. Wishful thinking plus 19 mailings (including some ruthless hit pieces) plus hundreds of thousands of dollars still didn't win it for Mitchell in a dem-proclaimed "targeted race." Uhhh...notice a pattern?

Marsden is so afraid of Golden he had an Emergency Volunteer Mobilization Meeting (bwahaha!). Total alleged attendance: 28. Sounds like the dems are real motivated to help.

Golden is so far ahead of Marsden, there is no way Marsden will catch up. Other than Election Day and BTSNs, Marsden never worked a day for Dillard. All of a sudden he's going to be Chap II? You need to take off the blue-colored glasses and come back to reality, young man.

Some free advice for a fellow 'hoo: You know your argument is weak when it's based on anecdotal evidence about anonymous friends totaling 3 of 45,000 registered voters.

At 9:48 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Good to see you back Wahoo! My opinion is Golden is a more appealing candidate for moderates then Cuccinelli (by a little). Only because he grew up in the area he ran, so he'll get a few "t-ball" votes.

I've agreed on Wahoo on almost every race, but this is one where we don't see things shaking out the same here. Of course in a district where Bush won by less than one percentage point... everyone may be overstating their case here.

At 4:52 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

The difference between Cuccinelli's race and this one is that Cuccinelli runs in off-off years every time. He can win by getting all 12 of the people who vote in off-off elections to support him.

This is going to be a bit different...

The X factor is Tim Kaine. How well does he run in Northern Virginia? He'll certainly run ahead of John Kerry, I'd think.

At 12:54 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Tin Kaine got about 51% in the 41st in the 2001 Elections. Kilgore got about 60%. Both were very close to their statewide numbers.

At 1:51 PM, Anonymous Jim E-H said...

No, I'm in the 38th, but Bob Hull is unopposed, so I'm helping out next door in the 41st (and anywhere else I have time for.)

At 2:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shocker. Is anyone in the 41st for Marsden (excluding the wife)

At 12:33 PM, Anonymous Jim E-H said...

Yep. I've been out canvassing, and there's lots of support. While name recognition is not high for anyone yet (most people don't pay attention to the primaries), taxes (Golden's hobbyhorse) don't seem to be a big priority compared to traffic and other issues. Nobody likes paying taxes, but people are smart enough to understand you don't get something for nothing.

At 1:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's an anon tip. Democrats- ask the Byrne's what they think of Marsden.

At 8:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jim E-H:

You guys obviously haven't run a poll or you are lying.

I suspect it's the latter, since your candidate has single-digit name ID and just started walking 2 weeks ago. Oh, and if taxes aren't a big issue, why is it the first issue bullet on Marsden's palmcard?

PS--Marsden's strategy of targeting R voters and trying to confuse them by name dropping Rs (and refusing to acknowledge his D affiliation) isn't working.

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