Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, May 13, 2005

Rounding Out Northern Virginia

We held back talking about these four races until we knew more. Now we are ready to update you!

39th District
Outlook: Likely Democratic

Incumbent Vivian Watts is being challenged by Michael Meunier. Michael is an energetic young candidate who has worked in national politics. Our GOP sources tell us while Michael could become a strong candidate, he is not yet organized enough to make this a serious campaign. Republicans failed to recruit local attorney Chris Craig who made two strong runs against Vivian in Democratic leaning years. In the redistricting, the 39th was changed to eliminate the strongest Democratic neighborhoods, but recent demographic changes have moved as fast as the boundaries and the 39th once again leans slightly Democratic. Vivian has a big advantage here, but this race isn't over yet.

44th District
Outlook: Safe Democratic

The 44th has been a solid Democratic area for some time. Delegate Kris Amundson has always struggled behind normal Democratic vote totals, but won two 51%-49% races by hanging on to just enough Democrats. The 44th has recently become even more Democratic. Even though the Republicans are fielding a candidate, and Kris is not the strongest incumbent, she's strong enough to hang onto this very Democratic district where John Kerry got over 58% of the vote.

51st District
Outlook: Likely Republican

Incumbent Michelle McQuigg won this seat in a 1997 special election, and became the Delegate that ended the Democratic majority. Ever since then Democrats have wanted this district back. It's not a rock solid Republican district, but it's not a tossup either. McQuigg has remained popular here and is a strong favorite to win again. The Democratic candidate Earnie Porta, is energetic and articulate, and could make this interesting with a mistake by the incumbent. We won't call this one over yet.

88th District
Outlook: Safe Republican

Democrats searched for a strong candidate to take on Mark Cole, but just couldn't come up with one. Cole is not a strong incumbent, but his district in the exurbs of Northern Virginia is solidly Republican. Without a great candidate Democrats just don't have a chance here. We'll put Cole in the winner column.


At 11:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't know much about the 88th. Why is Cole not a strong candidate? Personality? Positions? Fundraising? Inquiring minds want to know. Also, roughly described, what areas does that district include?

Thanks, NLS.

At 3:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mostly personality. He is sort of bland for a guy who aligns with the firebrand wing of the GOP. The district is very GOP--parts of Fauquier, Stafford and Spotsylvania. A former Spotsy supervisor. Nice guy, but not exactly a fun time.

At 4:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i drove through northern virginia and got my wheels nicked

At 4:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i love you. I love you. I Love You. I LOVE You. I LOVE YOU. I LOVE YOU.

At 7:22 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Agreed with anonymous 2. mostly personalty and a district that couldn't pick him out of a lineup.

anon 4- Thank You!

At 7:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anonymous2 and NLS, thanks for the info!



At 12:10 AM, Anonymous ls said...

McQuigg is safe ... she walks the district religiously

At 12:52 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I know she walks it all the time, with her big straw hat. She's a big favorite, but Porta has a chance, so I won't call it over (yet).

At 9:17 PM, Anonymous Mitch Cumstein said...

Michelle's an awesome person and a great Delegate. She works hard and takes nothing for granted, regardless of the opposition. This one's over, might as well put it in the win column.

At 10:16 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Maybe later, but I don't think it's over yet. Porta isn't a pushover, and we need to see if Tim Kaine can play as well as Mark Warner in PWC.

At 11:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Earnie Porta has raised much more money from individual small donor contributions by almost 10 to 1 to what Michele McQuigg has raised from this group. This indicates he has a strong grass roots base of support and many people who are working hard to get him elected. Michele may be a nice lady who walks her district, but Earnie Porta is doing the same. He is a very articulate and knowledgeable candidate who is interested in discussing the real issues of importance in his district, namely transportation, education, etc.


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