Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, May 27, 2005

Rating Change- 75th District

Old Rating: Likely Democratic
New Rating: Safe Democratic

We've looked into this district a little more, the open seat currently held by Del. Paul Councill. The Democratic margin is just too big here in state elections for Republicans to win in November. We're ready to call this race to the winner of the June 14th Democratic Primary.

38 Comments:

At 4:20 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

For the record, that gives us 8 seats that are safe for the primary winner on June 14th.

5 Dems, 3 GOP.

Assuming that all stays....

That takes our overall called races to:

GOP: 43
Dems: 27
Ind: 2
Uncalled: 28

 
At 7:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I heard that Henry MArsh is doing a radio spot for one of the candidates, though I don't know who it is.

Also, has anyone heard if State Senator Louise Lucas is supporting anyone?

 
At 9:48 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Lucas is for Byrne in the statewide constest

 
At 1:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No, for the Delegate seat.

I assume her endorsing someone there would be huge since her Senate district totally overlaps the House district.

 
At 3:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jerry Flowers claims in his appearances that Senator Lucas is supporting him. Lucas' office says that's not true. Flowers also claims he has the support of Senator Marsh. Marsh's office also denies the senator is supporting a 75th candidate. Senator Lucas would be wise to stay neutral since she will have to work closely with the new Democratic delegate. Flowers likes to name-drop and has claimed support from Governor Warner, Senators Lucas and Marsh, local county supervisors and others. When asked, those named say it' s not true. The neighboring legislators out to understand that whoever wins this seat will be completely different from Paul Councill. It will no longer be business as usual in the 75th.

 
At 12:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I mentioned earlier that Mr. Nicholson received more actual votes than some incumbents in 2003. I've had time to look into it and I have found that he received more votes than Delegates John Welch (R., 21st), Algie Howell (D., 90th), Phil Hamilton (R. 93rd) and G.G.Oder (R., 94th).Some of these were contested seats and some weren't. Other delegates and senators have stayed out of this race and I agree with the other writer that they should. This is a race for the Democratic voters of the 75th to decide, not other senators and delegates. The Democrats don't need any inside fighting. A Democrat endorsement in the primary may make it easier for a Republican and there is a man in Emporia seriously considering. Republicans have always supported Delegate Councill and his voting record shows it.

 
At 12:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I mentioned earlier that Mr. Nicholson received more actual votes than some incumbents in 2003. I've had time to look into it and I have found that he received more votes than Delegates John Welch (R., 21st), Algie Howell (D., 90th), Phil Hamilton (R. 93rd) and G.G.Oder (R., 94th).Some of these were contested seats and some weren't. Other delegates and senators have stayed out of this race and I agree with the other writer that they should. This is a race for the Democratic voters of the 75th to decide, not other senators and delegates. The Democrats don't need any inside fighting. A Democrat endorsement in the primary may make it easier for a Republican and there is a man in Emporia seriously considering. Republicans have always supported Delegate Councill and his voting record shows it.

 
At 1:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Aren't a lot of the members of the legislative black caucus supporting Mrs. Tyler?

The word is they first approached Ms. Goodwin and then dumped her when Mrs. Tyler's husband made a push for his wife.

 
At 8:21 AM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

If Lucas is for Byrne...where does that leave Baskerville does she have any elected offical support in Tidewater?? Locke, Melvin, Ward, Alexander,Miller...anyone know?

 
At 8:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I saw that Senator Lambert and Delegate Floyd Miles were at her annoucement so I assume they support her.

But does the absence of Senator Marsh and Delegate Dwight Jones mean they are not on board with Baskerville? It would be terrible for her campaign if she does not have the support of the entire Richmond delegation, especialy after losing the Richmond Crusade for Voters endorsement to Ms. Byrne.

 
At 8:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Louise Lucas could throw the 75th to the Republicans if she doesn't stay quiet. Wouldn't that be a hoot? And wouldn't Louise be a pyriah in Democratic circles? Carson Saunders, an Emporia lawyer, will probably run as the Republican candidate in November. He's a very attractive candidate and is highly regarded all over. In politics, nothing is impossible and if the Republicans were to win the 75th seat (not the 74th District as she keeps calling it)alot of the blood will be on her hands. Stay out of it Louise.

 
At 10:52 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I don't understand. What is she doing?

 
At 11:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Reliable word has it that Louise is endorsing Jerry Flowers, the on-again-off-again Republican/Democrat/Republican/now Democrat. In the view of many, this is a serious mistake by Senator Lucas. If Flowers is in the House, then he won't bother challenging her Senate seat in two years. Politics, as you know, makes strange bedfellows Flowers and his family have staunchly supported a segregated academy for years. Now, an African-American senator endorses him. Louise, what ARE you thinking, sister? She's taking a big risk. If Flowers loses, Senator Lucas will be hard pressed to make amends to the Democratic nominee. Thats why other legislators need to stay out of these races. You could cite the comments of Delegate Marian Vanlandingham about the campaign to fill her seat, but she is retiring. Lucas is way off base with this endorsement. Flowers has only a one in five chance of winning this race. Even tho you discounted Debra Goodwyn, you're going to be surprised at how well she does. SHe's not going to win, but she's going to do better than you seem to think. And louise Lucas will be paying for this stupid mistake for the rest of her political career. ANd Jerry Flowers will probably run against her, too. Wonder if he'll be a Republican or a Democrat when he does that?

 
At 11:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

In her press release, Senator Lucas endorsed Jerry Flowers for the 74th District seat, but actually he, and four others, is running in the 75th. If Lucas can't get the right district, what merit does her endorsement have?

 
At 11:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The 74th is eastern Henrico and Charles City where former Del. McEachen is running to get his seat back from Del Floyd Miles. Is Lucas endorsing there too or does she want Jerry Flowers there or what?

 
At 3:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

WOW!!!

Lucas supports Flowers?

You can spew out all the vile accusations, innuendo, and silliness you want, but this is a HUGE plus for Flowers!!!

WOW!!!!

 
At 5:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Anonymous at 3:19 a.m.:

An excellent example of the political pulse of the 75th can be found with the breakfast crowd at Parker's Drug Store in Franklin. They've been needling Flowers' candidacy for weeks.....ever since he announced. When the news of the Lucas endorsemnt breaks on Wednesday, these guys will be speaking the general feelings of the district's voters. I'm willing to bet their predictions are accurate. African-Americans are not supporting Flowers and Lucas' endorsement is not going to change that. On another related subject, the Parker's Drug pundits predict Flowers and Councill are going to hurt each other. They probably live less than five miles apart and people know both of them, their parents, their grandparents......Instead of being able to support the hometown boy, there are two of them. They've both got baggage and with both it's either love or hate. Neither of them are bad people. They're both decent men, but neither of them are good candidates for this election. It's not a matter of silliness, vile accusations or innuendo. It's part of the personal history of these two men. With the exception of Tyler, the other four candidates, including Councill and Flowers, have participated in this campaign honorably and with respect. Anybody will tell you that. In short, Louise Lucas ought not to endorse ANYBODY in the 75th. It's too risky for her and it's not going to help the individual she endorses; it may even hurt. AGAIN, LET THE VOTERS DO THE NOMINATING.

 
At 11:21 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"With the exception of Tyler, the other four candidates, including Councill and Flowers, have participated in this campaign honorably and with respect."

What has Mrs. Tyler done that is so bad?

 
At 4:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Tyler Transgressons:
1. Husband of candidate has been seen removing signage of other candidates in several areas of the district, particularly along routes 40 and 35;

2. Mr. Tyler serves on Sussex Board of Supervisors and his brother serves on Brunswick Board. "Tyler for House" signs have appeared on lawns of Sussex and Brunswick county employees;

3. Mr and Mrs. Tyler have called several local newspapers and reported "statements" made by other candidates which proved to be either outright lies or taken out of context. In each case, the editors called the candidates to get the other side of the story. None of the "Tyler Reports" were true and were not published;

4. The Tylers arranged for private meetings with the Democratic Committees in Brunswick and Greenville Counties. None of the other candidates were notified. The meetings were either not publiocized or a release was sent to the paper so late, it could not be printed. WOrd did slip out and candidates worked together and called each other. Eventually, they crashed these parties. The left-out candidates were told by the organizers there was no way to contact them. The fact is the SBE and the DPVa has all numbers, e-mails and addresses for all candidates. Mr. Councill is the Mayor of Franklin, after all. Several members of the Brunswick branch treated the candidates other than Ms. Tyler quite rudely and with animosity in a hostil environment

5. Certain members of the Brunswick Party called people in Brunswick at the direction of their chair, Mrs. Gwen MacMillan, and told them the Party had endorsed Ms. Tyler. When the DPVa learned of this, they got a promise from Brunswick that these calls would stop and those who had been called and a retraction would be made. Thedre has been no evidence of that. The Brunswick Democratics also had to agree to a candidates' forum. Eventually one was held at Saint Paul's Chicago Building. It is a bright and beautiful room, but only 35 people showed up. That number includes candidates and those who had aides like Flowers amd Councill. On stag, The Chair and Vice-chir were rude and hostile to all the candidates except Ms. Tyler.

6. A similar event with Greensville Democrats was hell. It was very unorganuized. They has a sign for candidate Tyler and no one else. Councill heard about it as he flew to Las Vegas for a meeting. Flowers found out at the last,last miinute, but managed to get there late. Nicholson arrived as it had started. Dr. Goodwyn never learned about it so she was absent.Amazingly, these candidates are now working together among themselves to make sure they all know about a meeting and there will be a level playing field. One may say there could be friendships developing among these other four.

7. Mrs. Tyler always introduces herself by revealing her education and college degrees. She claims to be in sa doctoral progra, at MCV in the physical therapydepartment. When this department was called and asked for verification of her enrollment, no one there knew the name or any variations thereon and there is no one matriculating in such a manner under any of those name variations. In short: She's not a student there


.

 
At 6:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree that the Bulova pix are ridiculous. But, if you want REALLY riculous, check out the Jerry Flowers brochure photographs in the 75th campaign. In addition, this guy is claiming responsibility for everything that has ever happened in the 75th EXCEPT the internet. We all know Al Gore invented that!
Flowers and Councill are engaged in a growing conflict that is both electoral and personal. They will cancel each other out. The winner/Democratic nominee probably will be Nickleson - spell?. He's kept himself above the others and when he strikes, he strikes hard. I've heard him in one debate and he was very good and better than the others by a long shot. I've been told he performs well in evry appearance he's made.

 
At 10:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Flowers seems to have the big mo, has run a top-notch campaign so far

 
At 12:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Flowers is spending some serious money. But his campaign techniques aren't too effective in this very rural district. In Greensville/Emporia we;re seeing alot of his mailings in the PO trash cans. Its a great way to test their effectiveness: check the po trash cans.Councill won't make it this way because of the Brunswick school election. Nicholson did well in these parts in '03 with a lot of influential black supporters. From what I can see, he's still carrying them. MOst whites are Republicans and th'll support native son Carson Sanders this fall. Up in the Brunswick section of 75th Nicholson is popular and in his own county of Sussex, he's popular for his school/education standing and his mother is a retired teacher with alot of repsect from blacks she taught years ago. Deborah Goodwyn is a fine candidate that nobody knows. Unfortunately. Councill's education credentials are poor. He's sent his children to private school (one right now) and the Franklin schools where he's mayor are dismal and getting worse. Flowers mother was principal of a private academy and the family's record on the public-private school is decidedly towards private. Black voters don't tolerate this and his VEA endorsement isn't going to help him. The district is big but Councill and FLowers only discuss Franklin/Southampton Senior COuncill ignored the netherlands too. I think this time out Nicholson will eek out a majority from all over to be the nominee. The Councill/Flowers supporters will revert to their common ground and support Saunders in Nov. It'll be an interesting race to follow this fall.

 
At 4:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

From midway between Emporia and Franklin, Nicholson is getting noticed for what he hasn't done. He hasn't engaged in a sign war while the Flowers, Councill and Tyler camps have them everywhere. And what he HAS done is write on a regular basis letters to the local newspapers editors that have talked about real issues. Not another candidate has taken advantage of this free service. I heard someone say the other day at lunch atArby's that they feel like they know him because of the letters. THe debate at Wakefield was made for him. We drove over there and it was done well. Those folks are sure proud of that building which was their former school. Nicholson was the first president of the effort to save it.

 
At 11:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nicholson is a loose Cannon who will come in 5th...definately

 
At 5:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

TO: "Anonymous at 11:37"
You are wrong, wrong, wrong. Nicholson is one of the most self-cotrolled individuals you will ever meet. You obviously don't know him so why do you think you can criticize and make such allegations? Meet him and talk to him. When you do that, he also can teach you how to spell. Its "definitely", not "definately". So you're wrong TWICE.

 
At 5:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

/controlled/ not /cotrolled/ and I know him and have talked to him about the issues in the 75th. Nicholson has little patience with rhetoric and even less with untruth. That doesn't make him a loose cannon. I don't think there is any candidate who is any more caring about the welfare of others than John. He is admant about justice and human rights. He has run a good, solid, truthful campaign. He knows what he's facing. Remember that this man went up against a thirty-year incumbent, by himself and with little money, and won almost 30% of the vote. Stop the name-calling and let's be honest. If you don't know the candidate, then you are not in any position to hurl such nastiness at any of them. Nicholson has publicized his phone number, e-mail and website more than any of the others combined. Educate yourself.

 
At 3:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

SOuthampton COunty Dems held forum for candidates on Thurs. It was well-attended. Candidate Rosylyn Tyler didn't show up but her husband Rufus wanted to aprticipate in her place. The sponsors, moderator and candidates said no. After an explanation of her absence he didn't bother to stay. The Democratic chair there is Richard Railey,Jr. a hard-drinking trail attorney who supports Flowers. The Flowers/Councill feud was very much in evidence. Councill's father, the incumbent delegate was there. He nodded off several times as he does on the floor of the House. There was more excuse-making to disclaim claims. Councill said he didn't make the racial and anti-semetic remarks in 1999. HE accused Flowers of really living in Va BEach. Flowers said he never said he saved the Southampton prisons. In fact, his literature mailed last week DOES make that claim pure and simple. Nickolson said he had talked to the reporter who wrote the articles and the reporter said he wrote exactly what was said at the press conferences and he didn't make any mistakes.Ms. goodwyn effectively talked about holding administrators in schools responsible and questioned the high salaries of superintendents and principal compared to the pay of teachers. Nickolson covered very well a large number of areas of interest in his answers. HE also handled admirably a lecture from Chairman Railey's son regarding segregated academies. The boy rudely attacked Mr. Nickolson as he claimed his fathe was being called a racist. Nickolson received applause after his tough direct response. The father/son set-up clearly embarrassed the Southampton people there judging from comments we heard aftwards. My wife heard a couple people apologizing to Nickolson and his campagne manager too.

 
At 12:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Whomever is posting the pro-nicholson comments (Nicholson himself) is full of it. Nicholson made a complete idiot of himself at the Southampton debate. He will receive less than 7% of the vote

 
At 8:35 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

7% for Nicholson? Yeah right! That nut won't see 3%. Maybe he should spend more time campaigning than on this blog typing in the 3rd person.

 
At 10:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This site must be run by Nicholson, most of the comments are in his favor and are simply ludicrous. Would supporters of the other four candidates continue to weigh in? Nicholson nailed his coffin closed Thursday night in Franklin.

 
At 10:40 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I understand that Flowers was the best prepared and the clear winner Thursday night at the debate in Courtland. He seems to be in the lead right now.

 
At 2:16 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think FLowers has the momentum too. He has a wide range of endorsements, Louise Lucas AND the NRA. He is a big hunter I hear. That works in the rural areas.

 
At 3:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It amazes me that all candidates are claiming that they are for education. The only candidate who recommended by the Virginia Education Association is Jerry Flowers. Jim Councill is endorsed by the All Children Matters PAC, whose sole purpose is to bring vouchers into our areas. This isn't supporting public education or helping our beloved Southside area. If you look at their website www.allchildrenmatter.org you will see their agenda. They give money to candidates who will vote for vouchers. Public schools are some of the largest employers in southside. Vouchers would destroy our areas....on June 14th vote for the only candidate endorsed and supported by the Virginia Education Association Jerry Flowers.

 
At 7:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The issue I care about is bringing quality industry into the 75th district. Councill's business is weak, Nicholson has never made a payroll, nor has goodwin and Tyler. I think it's Flowers who can do the most for recruitment potential and a better revenue base here.

 
At 12:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Well, the Flowers/Railey forces know how to use a computer and are hitting the blogs. Listen guys, Nicholson met many a payroll when he owned his own business. So, you're wrong on that. And Flowers' education credentials are absurd. His momma was headmistress at SA for Christ' sake. Big fat ol' Dick Railey must have Ann and the family out trying to discredit Nicholson because they're scared of him. It ain't gonna work. Railey will no longer be the Democratic chair in Southampton, that's for sure. Like his daddy, Big Dick, he's a crook. Seems like Big Dick Railey lost his law license on occasion. Fat Dick, Jr. is an ambulance chaser. Flowers made a huge mistake getting involved with him. It will hurt him. Finally, those people at the Wakefield forum denounced Railey's behavior during that meeting as rude. In Courtland, most in the audience felt Nicholson and Goodwyn came out on top. Many at the forum apologized to Nicholson for the rude behavior of Railey's son. Maybe you guys were at another forum the same night. Flowers has pandered to the electorate, dropped names and taken credit for just about everything since sliced bread. If his mortgage company is so great, why aren't the national headquarters in Courtland? Is it because they're in VA Beach? Nicholson has been a viable, hardworking, honest candidate. Win or lose, he has that to be proud of. He's played by the rules and not used personal attacks. Sadly, Jerry Flowers and Company can't say that. No, I'm not John. I live in Brunswick and I AM supporting him because he can best represent every citizen, not just a few like it's been for so long. I've written on this thing because it is a chance to get out the truth and express my own hope for the future. You guys are a little too late now. The election is tomorrow.

 
At 6:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice try Mr. Nicholson, your anger and desperation are showing, calm down. The real Mr. Nicholson is revealed.

 
At 6:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are right, Deborah Goodwyn has done a good job. Why are you so mean?

 
At 4:00 PM, Anonymous Edward Railey said...

It seems that one posting defamatory remarks should have the guts to sign them.

 

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