Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Saturday, May 07, 2005

Rating Change- 33rd District

Old Rating: Safe Republican
New Rating: Likely Republican

Old GOP Primary Rating: Leans May
New GOP primary Rating: Leans May

As we discussed earlier, Delegate Joe May has the slight leg up in his primary against Chris Oprison. But with his victory on June 14th far from certain, Loundon County Democrats have begun talking to two potential candidates. Former Supervisor Mark Herring, who carried western Loundon in a 2003 State Senate campaign against Russ Potts, and Leesburg Councilwoman Kelly Burk, a 1999 challenger to Dick Black when Leesburg was in the 32nd. Both would make strong Democratic Candidates, and against Oprison we would rate the race as "Leaning Republican". Neither has expressed an interest in running against Joe May, so if he is the nominee, we would rate this as a "Safe Republican". For now, we'll split the difference and call it a "Likely Republican" and keep you up to date on developments as they happen.

11 Comments:

At 8:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good scoop NLS!!!

 
At 10:41 PM, Anonymous blunker said...

Burk is a crazy feminazi. What's she going to do to beat Chris? Burn a bra in Leesburg and send up smoke signals?

 
At 2:51 AM, Anonymous Deuce said...

Apparently, blunker is what passes for a "moderate" Republican around these parts.

Somehow I don't think Kelly Burk would be a councilwoman in Leesburg, which is 50-50 at best is she was "a crazy feminazi" -- whatever the heck that is supposed to mean -- or is she was burning bras in Leesburg and sending up smoke signals as you put it.

Somehow I suspect that blunker is what passes for quality help in the Oprison campaign -- since I don't think a seasoned pol like Joe May would sanction rhetoric torn directly from El Rushbo's script. Go easy on the tranquilizers pal!

 
At 2:11 PM, Anonymous blunker said...

I have seen her do it! She is a former President of the LEA- that is a group, correctly labeled by former Education Sec. Rod Paige as a terrorist group. What's her sign going to say- "Terrorist Feminazi for Delegate?"

 
At 3:01 PM, Anonymous From the District said...

Joe May has no problem keeping this seat. Primary or general, no problem.

 
At 3:18 PM, Anonymous Deuce said...

Blunker, if you think the NEA and its local affiliates are "terrorist organization's" you are either on the Bush Administration's payroll, or you listen to too much bile-spewing on right wing propaganada. And SOMEHOW, if you consider being a member of the NEA tantamount to being a terrorist, I don't see any reason to believe in your "eyewitness" account.

 
At 4:10 PM, Anonymous blunker said...

I think most people in the 33rd would agree with me- if Bush's education sec says they are terrorists- they are terrorists. end of story.

 
At 5:29 PM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

I think with most of the challenged districts you're going to see at least a token Dem challenge, unless the incumbant simply blows the opposition out of the water.

 
At 5:52 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Jason, I agree, I'm not even noting the dem nominee in the 50th for example- just isn't going to happen. But in the 33rd both potential Dem nominees could be serious challengers

 
At 5:59 PM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

Especially if Oprison gives May a good run or wins. The problem with most of the VCAP endorsed challengers is they're running to the right of their primary opponents, and in some areas the Dems will be better able to capitalize on that than others. Either May will be shown to be vulnerable or Oprison will be tested to see how strong his support really is.

 
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