Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Sunday, May 22, 2005

Peninsula and outer Hampton Roads

We're ready to call four more races.

92nd and 95th Districts

Mayme Bacote and Jeion Ward both won open majority African American seats in 2003. Unlike Norfolk Democrat Algie Howell they have not introduced any legislation that endangers their seats. Until they do, they will return as Delegate for as long as they want the jobs.

93rd and 94th Districts

Glenn Oder avoided a primary for his seat after voting for last years budget. Now he'll cruise to re-election. Phil Hamilton sides with the Democrats more often then any other Republican then Jim Dillard. His challenge would also come in a primary, but since he avoided one this year he'll get back to Richmond easily.


We will hold off on calling the 64th (William Barlow), 91st (Tom Gear), and 96th (Melanie Rapp) while we gather a little more information.

22 Comments:

At 4:10 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

I'm not sure where you get that characterization of Phil Hamilton. He's a moderate, but he's nowhere near as liberal as Dillard.

I am surprised no one's been able to topple Tom Gear yet. I'd put him in the same league you put Jack Reid. My information tells me he's not very competent and isn't very well-liked in Hampton. Remember, this guy got elected to the House based purely on spite.

But I suspect he'll be back anyway. He turned back an intra-party challenge in '03 from a candidate that was almost as incompetent as he is.

 
At 4:30 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I said he sides with Dems more than any other Repub than Dillard. I believe that is correct.

 
At 5:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Melanie Rapp lives with her parents. They make sure she gets a balanced breakfast every day and that she doesn't miss the bus.

 
At 6:24 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

LOL...did you mean that pun...Bacote and Ward...no legislation to endager thier seats..LOL..droopy draws legislation..seats...get it??..LOL

 
At 6:44 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

I can give you at least five Republicans who are to the left of Phil Hamilton. I'll leave it to you to figure out who they are. :) All are in races you haven't really touched on yet.

 
At 7:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As one of the sources, I hope NLS won't mind me pointing out that NLS may be a gender nuetral name.

MB

 
At 8:36 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Not Mark- Stop putting words in my mouth. I said he sides with Dems more than any other Republican, not that he was to the left of all other Republicans. I'd appreciate it if you would read what I said before you blast me.

 
At 8:36 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Not Paul- totally unintentional. Funny though!!!!

 
At 9:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rapp doesn't have a challenger, or I don't believe she does. As for Barlow, he's got Troy Lapetina running against him again, and it could very well be one of the tightest races in the state.

 
At 9:40 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

NLS - I'm not trying to blast you, but the truth remains: Phil Hamilton does not side with the Democrats more than any other Republican save Jim Dillard. That is an incorrect statement.

Phil Hamilton has been a budget conferee for several years. He is on the Appropriations Committee. I can guarantee you those are not assignments doled out to people who routinely side with Democrats. They are given to party stalwarts.

If you care to prove me wrong, feel free. I am a great fan of this site and I'm amazed at the amount of information you get on a regular basis, but I will also point out when I think you've gotten wrong or misleading information.

 
At 10:08 PM, Anonymous The Jaded JD said...

Maps are updated.

 
At 11:04 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Not Mark- We just disagree on that. When the GOP controlled the House 53-47 for the last two years of Gilmore's Governorship Hamilton, Dillard, Panny Rhodes and Bloxom were the four who made his life hell. Panny left in 01, Bloxom in 03, and Dillard in 05. Hamilton will be the only one left of the bunch. Remember- he was also one of the first to start breaking towards the Gov during last years budget (and then didn't crossover when no one would accept him writing the bill and voting on it).

 
At 11:05 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Jaded- Looks great!!!

 
At 8:02 AM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

Rapp is unopposed....plus while she underperforms her district, it is overwhelmingly GOP and the support she does get is a majority and is rock-solid. She also never gets a balanced breakfast...she gets four balanced breakfasts...and four lunches...and four dinners...

Lapetina will be competitive if he can raise money...and that is a big "if"...Barlow is the worst campaigner in the House and his record is anemic. The ultimate space-filler in the chamber, just edging out Allen Dudley and Bud Phillips in a close race for the most invisible delegate.

Gear, although the General Assembly's dumbest member...an incredible title to hold given the make-up of the competition...has no competition.

 
At 9:26 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Hairpiece - Gear has not won this honor yet. He is still tied with Mark Cole.

Melanie Rapp is one of those individuals whose heart is in the right place, but her temper and her stubbornness are always getting in her way. Every time I think I see her maturing as a legislator, she goes out and creates a conflict with some group over nothing. She will win easily.

I don't know all that much about Bill Barlow, except that he once won a Vance Wilkins look-alike contest.

 
At 10:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rapp is unopposed at this point and no one even seems to be making noise about challenging her. She faced pretty energetic challenges in each election up until this point and survived them all easily. If a candidate does emerge, their late entry indicates they won't be credible and won't be a serious threat. She will be back.

Gear is upposed by Randy Gillilland, a Hampton City Councilman who has been a Democrat in years past but is running as an Independent. Gear will beat him easily - he has no party to back him and the district is overwhelmingly GOP.

The Barlow race is interesting as Troy is a good candidate and I think he will get a lot more attention at the state level than he did in 2003. Nevertheless, it will be hard for him in a district where half the constituents have the last name "Barlow." Lapetina's numbers in the 2003 race show he vastly underperformed in most precincts compared to what President Bush did in 2004 - indicating that it is a Republican district, but that they generally like their delegate. Barlow hasn't done much in the past two years to change that. Looking at the 2003 vs. 2004 numbers in that district, Troy even slightly underperformed by comparison to the President in the Williamsburg & James City County precincts which should be his base since he lives north of the James River and Barlow's base is south of the James. If Lapetina can't run up his numbers north of the James, there is no way he can win. While this will be the most competitive of the three uncalled Peninsula races, it would seem likely Barlow.

 
At 11:19 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

My sources in the tidewater tell me that there is a REALLY TALENTED young GOPer waiting in the wings to challenge Rapp eventually. State party wouldn't mind, probably. Can't reveal the name though. Not this year, and probably not next time either. Probably will be a subject for the eventual virginia2009.blogspot.com.

She's not well liked amongst Republicans and probably has the worst constituent services amongst anyone in the state who isn't bed ridden or in prison. Notice the anonymous comments...my bet is that those are Republicans from her district.

If, as you say NLS, she's shaping up and maturing as a Delegate, then this outlook will change. It takes very little effort for a conservative (Rapp is conservative enough) to please their constituents in a district that strongly GOP. But Rapp has so far barely mustered that tiny bit of effort.

 
At 11:24 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Ha. My sources. I feel like such a tool using that phrase.

 
At 11:28 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

If, as you say NLS, she's shaping up and maturing as a Delegate,

I think someone else said that.

 
At 12:29 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Here's my thinking on these:

1) I'm working on a post on the 64th, that seems to be clearing up.

2) I won't say anything about Rapp until after June 14 where we can see if the Dems have a decent candidate.

3) Same thing for Gear. Safe district.... but if anyone is weird enough to lose it...

 
At 2:50 PM, Anonymous Larry Sabato's Hairpiece said...

How about updating some of the primaries. These campaigns have to be dropping mail or doing radio or cable. Should be something to talk about. Someone has to have put a nasty hit out on someone else by now. NLS, you need an open discussion board so people can discuss the latest in one place.

OK...Gotta go...the boss is taking me in a for a styling before his next appearance on TV in Butte, MT.

 
At 3:50 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Someone please tell Will Vehrs that Mark's not at AU! He's about two universities behind.

 

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