Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Monday, May 16, 2005

Mommy!

37th District

Democratic Primary Outlook: Leans Bulova
Republican Primary Outlook: Likely Mason
General Election Outlook: Leans Mason (PICKUP)

A new update from the 37th. The Washington Post ran a great article yesterday about the relationship between likely Republican nominee John Mason, and Democratic Supervisor Sharon Bulova (mother of David Bulova, the possible Democratic Nominee). Sharon Bulova did her son no favors with her shot at Mason for running. Apparently the former Mayor shouldn't run against Sharon's son.

"I would never run against a good friend," she said. "Friendship means something to me. It's just not my nature to advance my political career at the expense of a friendship."

After Sharon is finished complaining about Mason running she adds she probably would have supported him if he hadn't been running against her son.

"Sharon Bulova said it's possible that she would have supported Mason had her son not been in the race. "John's a very intelligent man, and he's interested in the same things I am," she said."

So to sum it up. He can't run because her loins have selected a new Delegate. However she thinks he would do a good job.

Nice job Sharon.

28 Comments:

At 7:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Parents are bad enough... but when reporters already have their phone numbers...

 
At 11:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I thought the article did not help Mason and helped Kaplan. Mason comes across as a close friend of Democrats which would not help him in the Republican Primary. Also, Mason had to be talked into the job; he does not much drive to win. The one thing that does motivate him is Fairfax City. But most of the district is outside Fairfax City. Why would someone in Fairfax County want to support a candidate that seemingly ignores most of the district?

 
At 9:21 AM, Anonymous GayDem said...

I don't understand how you can label this district (which voted for Kerry, Petersen by large margins, and becomes more Democratic by the day with the growth and demographics shifts) "Lean Republican" in the general. It seems to indicate a bias--just as your analysis that somehow Mr. Bulova's opposition to a constitutional amendment that would prevent same-sex couples from entering into contracts will make him less than acceptable in a very gay-heavy and socially progressive district indicates a bias.

 
At 9:37 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

gaydem- on the right side if you click through you can see how we got here. The leans r is mainly because of the way Fairfax City votes, and how Bulova or Oleszek will have problems taking positions to the left of the incumbent. Why do you say this district is "gay heavy?"

 
At 10:46 AM, Anonymous Terry M said...

I think what is interesting in this Dem primary is that Mommy has lined up most all of the elected and Dem establishment endorsements for David and yet Janet still is even or ahead in money. The establishment did not support her for school board, where she finished first among the at large candidates, and she may well surprise them again. Janet has something none of the other candidates has..passion. I think she can win the seat if she gets past the primary..and the opposition of the Dem committee old guard. Regardless, either Mason, or Bulova or Oleszek would be an improvement over Chap (I'm a Dem in name only)Peterson. Time to send him back to the used car lot he came from...

 
At 11:36 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

2nd Anon- Good observations.

Terry M- Agreed, although Janet only leads in $ because of a big check from herself. David has more small donors, but I've seen nothing to suggest they are all 37th. This should be a good fight. David has the upperhand right now, but only by a little.

gaydem- just to add. I assume Terry M is a dem, and he thinks mason is better than chap. That follows what I am hearing about Mason's crossover potential.

 
At 12:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS: you've been pretty anti-Bulova on here. I hope there isn't a bias of some sort that we should know about...

 
At 12:54 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

No bias, last week I was accused of being anti Oleszek. I guess I'll be accused of being anti-Mason when he starts to fumble something around.

By the way, the last Bulova article was terrible, he did a bad job. This one, I have some sympathy for him- what are you going to do when your mom calls up the press to complain about your opponent running? It hurts him, but it wasn't like it was his mistake.

 
At 2:00 PM, Anonymous Roanoker said...

Im glad we dont have people whining like that down here. Wah, Wah, Wah. Does his mom dress him too?

 
At 3:02 PM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

Hey NLS....how long have you been doing this blogging thing? What happens next year? There is no way you, or anyone, can make the congressionals interesting...

 
At 3:44 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

That's true. We may have to shut down for a year....

 
At 4:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS: Ok. Ha! Just checking. I believe you.

 
At 7:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS, If you were David Bulova, what would you do to win?

 
At 10:43 PM, Anonymous gaydem said...

There is a sizeable gay population in the district... I suspect Chap got more angry calls after voting for HB751 from constituents than any other supporter.

Don't misread Democrats' frustration with Chap as crossover support for Mason. Bulova or Oleszek, the Dems will hold this seat with at least 52%.

 
At 11:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I really like Sharon Bulova. She does a good job because she's not political. It's always sad when she gets involved in politics- everyone knows she is clueless and deaf to it- but thats why everyone in her Supervisor district loves her! I don't think she understands how much it hurts to appear that mom is looking over the David campaign. Nothing personal. We just don't have birthright to office in Fairfax.

 
At 2:02 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Anon from last night-

If I were David Bulova, what would I do to win? Do you mean the primary or the general?

 
At 3:01 PM, Anonymous Terry M said...

Great to see a blog into this local stuff..thanks for doing all the research. I agree with gaydem that there are a lot of GLBT folks in the area, probelm is they don't usually vote even in the general election!! Or give money. Which is really bad given the attention most candidates try to give to the community. Equality Fairfax is trying to improve on that, but we are still not there yet..even as the issues should be driving us to take to the streets. Go figure. Yes, not larry, I am a Dem and involved in the Mason District Committee and FCDC. We'll save that for a later blog. Also serve as an election officer for the county so try to cover both sides of the table. And yes, I'm also a gay male, partnered and VA taxpaying (if not legally married) for 20 years.Just to clarify, Mason would be better than Chap the homophobe, but fortunately I can support either David or Janet. Shame I'm not in that district ...but I have lived in three districts over last 20 years so try to look beyond borders. And by the way, Steve Shannon is trying real hard to be Chap-lite. Such a shame for someone who was once a fresh face. We had words at a recent forum about the marriage issue and he will get no more money from me. I understand the politics of the issue, but there are certain lines that can't be crossed and still call yourself a Democrat.

 
At 3:56 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Hey, lay off the Chap-bashing. If he's such a homophobe, how do you explain the tab at the NYC gay bar that appears on his campaign finance reports? Go on, look it up. That's www.vpap.org for you novices.

 
At 4:36 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Chap went to that gay bar 5 years before it became a gay bar. I had heard that, so I just called and asked to confirm. It began its "gay leather nights" in 2000, according to the person who answered.

 
At 6:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are we still talking about Chap and gay bars?

 
At 12:45 PM, Anonymous Terry M said...

So I should be impressed that he paid for a few drinks in some bar that is now a gay bar..in NYC!? Please. You reap what you sow and Chap has sown some nasty seeds with his votes and his words. Hopefully I won't have to hold my nose and vote for him in Nov.

 
At 1:24 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

In case you hadn't noticed, this is Virginia. You're not getting gay marriage any time soon. C'mon, the gay and lesbian population as a whole is between 1 and 10% of the general population. They are a narrow interest. Last I checked, the anti-gay-marriage contingent was between 60% and 65% in Virginia, depending on who runs the polling.

The Dems have the same problem as the GOP in that their candidates are often out of touch with the "great unwashed" (aka, the "moderate" voters who swing elections). Chap realizes that, which means he'll grab the middle, and that could win him the race.

Chap Petersen can beat Sean Connaughton (whether he will is a different story). Leslie Byrne couldn't beat Bill Bolling even if she shuts up until November. I don't know why that woman commands so much respect among Democrats. Tom Davis mopped the floor with her in a district she created. That ought to tell you something about her ability to alienate voters.

 
At 3:24 PM, Anonymous Terry M said...

NMR, you are right, it is Virginia. But it is also America where we are supposed to believe in the protection of everyone regardless of volumes. I would imagine that polling done in the 50's and 60's reflected strong support for racial segregation in Virginia..I mean afterall, this is a majority white state too. So we should just ignore people in the minority?

Frankly your suggestion that my rights to relationship benefits and legal protections from discrimination are "narrow interests" is very insulting. Since when are equal rights an item for debate in this country? This was never about protection of marriage. It is all about refusal to accept the fact that gay people exist and have a right to enjoy equal protection under the law. Since the religious folks have made such a fuss about homosexuals and the bible, to accept state recognition of our relationships would undermine their credibility. No wonder they are so upset. And no wonder the polls are so slanted...no one can hear the truth through all the noise.

Call me crazy, but I thought the Dems are supposed to be fighting for equality for everyone, not just those in the majority. I agree we won't see progress on gay rights here very soon, probably not in my lifetime. Especially when the "debate" rages on misinformation and hysteria from the religious right and supported by many Dems and people who know better. But we should expect Dem candidates to have the guts to stand for what is right. I know it is not politically safe to do that these days, but isn't that what leadership is all about? I'd rather lose on principle than win by betrayal. Maybe that is why Leslie earns the respect of so many Dems...she doesn't sell out her beliefs. Call me old fashioned I guess. Or I guess call me one of those liberal elitist who have little respect for the unwashed and ignorant among us.

 
At 4:34 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Be careful, Terry. Comparisons to civil rights for African Americans doesn't seem to be a winning formula for the gay-rights movement. This is especially true when African Americans themselves seem to be more opposed to gay marriage than many other groups. I saw one poll where African Americans were more opposed to gay marriage than Hispanic Americans.

The marriage issue is completely different from traditional notions of civil rights, or from the "gay rights" movement in general. We are in the post-Lawrence v. Texas era and no one is saying you can't have your relationship. Look at the poll numbers for gay marriage and look at the poll numbers for support of sodomy laws. The numbers are worlds apart. To me, this shows that it is not about what "rights" and "protections" most Americans would afford gay Americans. Most Americans seem to favor individual equality for gays and lesbians. The hangup is on the marriage issue, plain and simple.

Moreover, I think it is offensive to the civil rights movement to equate your inability to marry with the total African American experience under segregationist Jim Crow laws. The marriage issue just can't hold a candle to the way African Americans were treated on an institutional level.

 
At 4:41 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

C'mon guys- back on topic

 
At 2:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sharon + Janet = Catfight!

 
At 9:58 AM, Anonymous Terry M said...

Thanks for the reminder NLS. Sorry to go off on a rant, we're just feeling a bit under assault these days.

So, back to the 37th. Why do you think just about every elected Dem in the county has endoresed Bulova? Is that just closing ranks with Mommy or is there something that terrible about an Oleszek victory? I think it is odd to see such solidarity for one candidate in a contested Dem primary. What happens if she wins??

 
At 1:32 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Gerry Connolly will try to stop anyone from getting a D nomination for any position in Fairfax County, if he can't control them. He needs Bulova to keep a tight ship.

 

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