Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, May 31, 2005

Like Mother, Like Son

A few of you in Northern Virginia may remember in 2003 when unopposed Fairfax Supervisor Sharon Bulova tried to send out an endorsement piece for her son David Bulova into her Braddock District, and accidentally mailed the entire mailing to Reston and Vienna in another district and wasted $10,000 or so.

Like Mother Like Son....

Our Fairfax sources tell us telephone lines have been ringing off the hook in Steve Shannon's district with Bulova phone surveys on his primary in another district.

It really isn't that difficult to get a list of voters in your district is it?

Has anyone else had this problem besides the Bulova's?

In addition we will be looking at Bulova's report to see what phone company he is using. A few callers have reported that the paid phone banker calling them had a heavy Indian accent. If Bulova hired a company that outsourced the calls he could have really stepped in it.

We're watching Janet Oleszek carefully. With Bulova's fumbles she can move this primary back into a tossup if she makes her move now.

17 Comments:

At 9:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What exactly would "making her move" entail? Posting some positive news/anecdotes on here that influences you into moving her up? And how does that actually mirror what's going on in the district?

 
At 10:27 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Nope, I talk to people in the district all the time. I'll tell you if she starts making a move.

 
At 10:59 AM, Anonymous Freddie said...

Rank incompetence to mess up a mailing list like that. This, by itself, is reason to vote against Bulova.

 
At 12:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

freddie mercury?

 
At 3:47 PM, Anonymous Terry M said...

All depends on who the vendors are..I believe the local Dems use many of the same outfits so it probably was a vendor mistake, not the campaign's.

Though someone should be peeking over the vendor shoulder. And David should be demanding compensation..unless of course it was his people who messed up. You would think they would be extra careful given his mom's problem in 2003.

 
At 6:05 PM, Anonymous mitch's wife said...

If this is true about David, then that's just sad. But don't be fooled. Sharon's mailing was no accident. David was running county-wide and he needed any exposure that he could get. A lot of folks who got that mailing probably voted for David, not knowing that Sharon was not their supervisor. most folks don't know who their supervisor is.

 
At 11:22 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I disagree. More people in big areas like Fairfax, VA Beach, Henrico, know their local Supervisors better than their state reps.

 
At 12:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've been on the ground in several districts and most people's reaction to "House of Delegates" is "what is that?" And their reaction to "Dave Albo" is "Who is that?" And that's a 12 year incumbent...

Now their school rep...they're more likely to know that person if they have children in school.

Let's not fool ourselves into believing that the people who post on here represent a cross section of the real population. The real population (which will vote at between 40-50% roughly during this governor's election) will know very little about any of the candidates on the ballot. Two factors will largely predict voting:

1. Partisan ID
2. Individual contact with the candidate

That's why it's so important to get out on the ground, people!

And that's why districts with large influxes of new people are so hard to predict. Dave Albo's district was designed to be a safe incumbent seat. Well that changed in 3 years because of more than 10k new people. It's up in the air, and while Dave starts ahead, it's all about the better organization.

The same goes with Hilda. That's a rapidly changing population out there in PW.

 
At 3:40 PM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Anonymous, I don't think "Partisan ID" is as important in a general election. Personal contact, on the other hand, is very important.

Party ID won't really affect Dave Albo one way or the other. What will affect the race is the "incumbent" designation after his name. That gives Dave a major leg up.

Aside from incumbency, the campaign that will be successful in the general depends on who gets the most of the "great unwashed," aka the "independent" voters. Turning out your base matters, but a candidate cannot win unless he can "take the middle."

Changing district or not, incumbency will be Albo's biggest advantage, besides the fact that he is very competitive and is not going down without a fight. I can guarantee you that Albo will work very hard to grab those moderate voters. Barring a huge scandal or a seismic political shift between now and November, Dave Albo will win.

 
At 4:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hey....

wake up. Delegate David Albo soft on child molestation

 
At 9:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Come on. That's not fair. Dave Albo didn't know that the bill he put into General Assembly lowered the penalty for child molestation. And when he found out that it did, he certainly didn't throw a month long hissy fit before dropping the bill while his cosponsors bailed and Republicans held their noses.

This soft-on-child-molesters issue won't affect Albo at all. Child molesters vote too, after all.

 
At 9:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My personal favorite is when Albo picked a fight with the local PTA. That's good politics! Especially when you're unopposed and just had your district rejiggered so you'd be safe forever...

...Whoops.

 
At 10:30 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

I see the Werkheiser folks have found the site....

 
At 12:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lots of people are backing Werkheiser, not mark rozell. Don't be surprised when the Albo/Werkheiser debate starts a furor. Amongst Democrats, Albo is one of the least popular legislators.

 
At 5:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Write in Chap Petersen!

 
At 2:19 PM, Anonymous Terry M said...

Sources clsoe to the Bulova campaign insist that the phone canvass mistake is a blog rumor only..they claim to have checked the numbers called and verified they are in the right district..he said, she said...just passing along that response.

 
At 5:59 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Terry M, I have multiple sources on this, they are wrong, or they have a bad list or they lie. One of the three. If they are reading this, and a) not lying and b) think it looks ok, then memo guys- YOUR LIST SUCKS!

Terry M- I had heard you were considering a race for the Watts open seat in 07 or 09. Is that true?

 

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