Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

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Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Henrico Winner

72nd District

Old Outlook: Likely Republican
New Outlook: Safe Republican

We refrained from calling the 72nd District for Jack Reid when we covered the Richmond area last month. His district favors the GOP, but frankly Reid has stuck his foot in his mouth enough times to watch it and see what happens here.

Perhaps the only thing in Henrico a little more pathetic then Reid is the Democrats of Henrico who still don't have a candidate against him. Campaigns in Richmond move faster then the ones in Southwest, so at this point we can safely call this one for Jack Reid.

Tim Kaine ran well ahead of Mark Warner in this district (unlike most of the state). I'm a little surprised that no viable Democrat wanted to run with Tim here. This was probably their best shot.

24 Comments:

At 8:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS - Your obvious dislike of Jack Reid has made you unable to call this race in an impartial manner. I could've told you months ago Jack Reid won't face opposition. And I've never seen in Henrico the discontent with Reid you have tried to drum up here. Cut the personal vendetta and stick to the facts. Sincerely, Not Mark Rozell

 
At 9:28 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What were the presidential numbers in this district...did Kaine just run ahead of Warner or did he win here??

 
At 10:27 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The problem is that Jack Reid impregnated a hooker recently.

 
At 10:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

what? a hooker?

 
At 10:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

no, i'm sorry. it wasn't a hooker. it was his wife. my mistake

 
At 10:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

are you saying his wife is a hooker?

 
At 10:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No, I'm definitely not. I just got confused. I need to check into rehab.

 
At 10:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I agree.

 
At 11:24 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

anon1-
Don't think I am biased. For the same reason I am leaving Algie Howell as competitive in his primary.. when legislators do stupid things (like offer to give other Delegates wedgies on the floor), there is the possibility of someone stepping up and making them look like an idiot. That with Tim Kaine on the ballot in suburban Richmond gave Dems their best shot here. I waited, they failed, and so then I called it.

anon2-
Bush won. Kaine was close, about 4 points ahead of Warner.

other anon- that is very funny.

 
At 3:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS - Sorry, bud, but calling a delegate "pathetic" shows your true colors. I'm not necessarily a fan of Reid's politics, although I do consider him hilarious (including his "crack" about giving delegates wedgies). But this doesn't make him vulnerable in a district as conservative as his. And let's not forget, most people in Chesterfield and Henrico don't want anything to do with "the city," so don't overplay the Tim Kaine thing. The Dems didn't put anybody up against Reid because they knew they'd get skewered. Sincerely, Not Mark Rozell

 
At 4:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS: How does this snipit from the Werkheiser website strike you:

"One of the greatest challenges facing our district is the Defense Department's plan to move 18,000 jobs to Ft. Belvoir. Our current representative, who has been in office for twelve years, kept his head in the sand while our transportation and education challenges evolved into crises. This huge influx of people will add to our transportation woes and school overcrowding if not properly managed. We must not repeat the mistakes of the past twelve years. I ask you to consider allowing me to represent you in the state legislature as we take on this extraordinary challenge as a community."

It is true. Albo's been there for 12 years and the problems have gotten progressively worse. His attention has been elsewhere - for example, on the interests of his law firm. The Werkheiser race will test whether issues that affect people's daily lives like traffic/sprawl/school overcrowding/gang violence spreading into the suburbs can rue the day in a local election. I'd call them quality of life issues.

This underscores a larger point, as well: local government affects your lives, people. The federal government? not so much.

Can other incumbents run on these issues as well? You bet. It's called turning road rage into voter rage. Voters in the 41st, 42nd, and other districts around there are PISSED about the traffic and the gang violence as well.

 
At 4:23 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

NotMark, Sorry we disagree. I stand by the pathetic comment. I will tell Jack that I said that next time I see him at lunch at the Ruby Tuesday's on Broad Street (where you can usually find at least one Ray Allen client a day).
He's just not that strong. Henrico is the area where Dems can put up a fight in the Richmond area, it's not Chesterfield.

And to defend myself on one other front... it's not like it was called a "tossup". We called it a likely GOP until we knew more, and now that it's obvious Democrats can't field a strong candidate here- we called it for Reid.

Sorry if you think pathetic was a cheap shot. If we could send him around the state with Bob Hull, people might get scared enough to start voting in state elections.

 
At 4:26 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I hadn't seen that from Werkheiser yet. That's a good local issue. Werkheiser has to be careful not to bash the move, only the outcome from it, because he has a lot of constituents who are going to be thrilled with the move who don't have to drive to Arlington anymore (I know a few) and obviously the buisnesses there will be happy. Right now, I like where he is going with that issue.

 
At 4:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

oh my bust. it's on his website:

Werkheiser for Delegate

Yeah I liked the language because he didn't do what the smart growth people do: "NO NO NO NO NO NO!!!" He seems to realize that this is both a blessing and a problem (see: challenge).

From what I've heard from people who live in the Route 1 corridor, it's already hell to drive to work. add 18,000 people? Fogettabout it. Locally people are pissed that the state isn't supplying money for the widening of route 1, which has already been approved but is being done piecemeal becaues there isn't any funding. It's a mess. Almost makes me glad to pay those tolls on the Dulles Toll road every day...

 
At 4:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

(same person)

I wonder how this will play out in Alexandria and Arlington, where they're losing jobs? Politicians have been pretty hysterical...does this affect the 45th in any way?

 
At 5:27 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

It could affect the 45th, but I haven't seen anyone use it effectively yet.

 
At 5:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thing about that race is that Pentagon people are Repubs usually...

 
At 5:41 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

The Arlington people are more civilian workers than active duty. I think it's about a 3-1 split there, even more so in the Navy offices.

 
At 5:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

While I don't think he is "pathetic", Delegate Reid has never had even an adequate campaign apparatus in Henrico county, and was even weaker in the Chesterfield part of his old district, so there is always some vulnerability there, despite the strong pro-GOP leanings of the district.

But if you don't have an opponent....

 
At 10:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Draft Felix

 
At 1:45 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

The cat?

 
At 3:16 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I think he means Felix, well known around the Capitol as Frank Hall's aide???? If so, he would be a good candidate in a lot of places.

 
At 1:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

So, please spill your rationale for proposing a Jack Reid/Bob Hull Virginia Tour with the theme, "If you don't vote in off-year elections, this could happen to YOU!" I get the dig at "Wedgie" Reid (which is difficult to say out loud quickly without saying "Wedgie Weed") but what's your scoop on Bob Hull?

 
At 4:19 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Remember when Bob Hull tried to play diplomat?

 

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