Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Saturday, May 21, 2005

East of Roanoke

9th District
Outlook: Likely Republican

Allen Dudley, a 6 term incumbent, has a challenger in lawyer Eric Ferguson. The 9th District includes all of Franklin and Floyd Counties and part of Pittsylvania County.

Dudley was one of the first major GOP victories here, when Democrat Virgil Goode used to control Franklin County. Now they share one machine.

Ferguson is energetic and seems to be touching on some good local issues. Our sources tell us that he is the best candidate the Democrats have had in a while in these counties.

To have any chance to win Ferguson will have to carry Franklin County by a sizeable margin, enough to offset his losses in Floyd and Pittsylvania. It's not impossible, given Mark Warner's narrow victory in this district.

However, in this district where voters chose Mark Warner in 2001, then the same voters did not chose Tim Kaine on the same ballot, it doesn't look like Ferguson will get a lot of help from the top of the ticket. We're calling this Likely Republican for now, but keep your eye on this one. Ferguson just may be a good enough candidate to make this very interesting.

14th District
Outlook: Safe Republican

Whatever happened to the conservatives primaring Danny Marshall? Danny who came into office with Whitt Clement's blessing, then moved into his house, won't face any problems in this district outside of a Republican Primary. It is worth noting that Danville City, which is in this district went very narrowly for John Kerry last year. If the high unemployment here continues to trend the area Democratic, then this may be the scene of a future high stakes battle.

16th District
Outlook: Safe Republican

Robert Hurt will win again. "Who's that", you may wonder. Here's his formula for success:

Conservative Areas + GOP redistricting + no public mistakes = lifelong job as Delegate


At 9:51 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

Dudley is safe...Warner won there on one issue: NASCAR.

At 10:50 AM, Anonymous The Jaded JD said...

I've updated the district maps with these new calls.

I'm looking forward to filling in the rest of tidewater and SWVA.

At 2:36 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Jaded- Great job!!! It looks amazing! I wish I had that kind of talent.

Not mark rozell- Don't critique the people in that area of the state like that. I'm very confident people there vote on plenty of other issues besides NASCAR.

At 3:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ferguson is a long shot but if he runs a tight campaign could make some major in roads that make it winnable in 2007.

At 12:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the mayor of Rocky Mount could not beat Dudley in Franklin County (or elsewhere) in an off-year, it doesn't seem that Ferguson could win in a year he is saddled with Tim Kaine at the top of the ticket. Almost as bad as having Mary Sue Terry or John Kerry on the ticket; maybe worse.

At 4:36 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm not sure if I agree yet or not on that. It's an excellent point in that Governors candidates WILL affect these races. I promise to get into that soon.

At 9:29 AM, Anonymous Not Mark Rozell said...

I didn't say that was the only issue in Southwest - just that NASCAR was the key issue that propelled Mark Warner's victory in this particular area. Face it, we are all more likely to vote for people who identify with us and who seem to enjoy the same things we do. Mark Warner did an excellent job of portraying himself as a NASCAR fan.

It is interesting, however, to note that Kilgore's own NASCAR sponsorship hasn't helped him more in Southwest - perhaps people in the Fightin' Ninth see this as political pandering? Or maybe the Willie Mae issue has more legs than we outsiders are willing to accept.

In any case, Allen Dudley is very safe.

At 9:31 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I have heard Ferguson is stronger than the Mayor from the last election. We'll see.

At 11:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Challenger vs. incumbent races come down to a referendum on the incumbent. Regardless of how strong Ferguson is, however, there is no real case to be made for getting rid of Dudley. That's the battle for Ferguson or any other challenger.


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