Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, May 17, 2005

75th District

Open seat of Del. J. Paul Councill (D). Good five way Democratic primary going on here. No Republican candidate has come forward yet, the district is favorable to Democrats, but it is possible for an upset (particularly if Republicans had an African American nominee). For now

Outlook: Likely Democratic

The primary is wide open and could go one of four ways. This district stretches through all of Greensville and Sussex Counties, and the City of Emporia. It also includes parts of Brunswick, Isle of Wight, Lunenburg, Southampton and the City of Franklin.

Jim Councill, the Mayor of Franklin, has an advantage with name recognition from his father, the retiring Delegate. He carries supporters and opponents from his dad. His district wide name, as well as the multiple candidates against him, makes him the slight favorite. His opponents will use some past slips of the tounge to portray him as a racist.

Jerry Flowers, a two time Senate candidate from the area has a good chance of winning. Jerry ran as a Republican in 1995, and as a Democrat in a 2000 special election. He only lost the Senate seat by a slight margin in 2000. Jerry had good name recognition all over the district from his Senate campaign, and has the possibility of pulling GOP votes into the Democratic Primary. If he can get enough Democrats who liked him from his 2000 campaign to pull his lever, Republicans could spring him an upset here.

Roslyn Tyler is a Supervisor from Sussex County. This district has a heavy African American vote, and Tyler hopes to capitalize on that. If she can bring voters to this primary she absolutely could win. It also helps that the other three main candidates are white.

John Nicholson ran as an Independent for this seat in 2003. A former teacher, he has the most liberal support, getting endorsements from the AFL-CIO, the Teachers, and Pro Choice groups. Mr. Nicholson got 29% of the vote here in 2003 as the only challenger in the race, which is a decent amount, but not overwhelming. Nicholson is the dark horse that could pull the upset, but the other candidates are not giving him a lot of room to build a coalition.

Deborah Goodwyn isn't worth mentioning. She won't be a factor.

For now we see it like this.

Primary Outlook: Toss Up. Slight lean to Councill. Any of the top four could win.

35 Comments:

At 4:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good to finally get some information on this one. I really had not been able to follow it. It's an important one- they pick a Delegate every 40 years or so??

 
At 5:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can't be serious about GOP crossovers boosting Flowers' chances. With two hot GOP primaries and the trash talking of the Ruff Senate race still stinging, why would any Republican vote in the 75th Democratic primary?

 
At 5:52 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I said possibility. I assume he still has some GOP friends, and in this part of that Senate district he ran ahead of the Dem ticket.

 
At 9:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NLS - Ms. Tyler is NOT on the board of supervisors - her husband is. She is on the annointed school board. As for Jr. Paul, well he has made comments in the past against african americans and jews - and he is mormon. Mr. Flowers does not know what he is, and besides do you think his GOP friends will vote in a democratic primary? and Mr. Nicholson has the experience as he was once a clerk for the House of Delegates, so he does not need any on the job training. You mention Mr. Nicholson only got 29 percent last time, you failed to mention that was against a 30 yr incumbent, and Mr. Nicholson did much better than some party incumbents running for reelection in '03. Mr. Council has not done a good job as mayor other than to stuff his pockets from daddy's money. Don't know much about the other woman running. If I were a betting person, I would place a bet on NICHOLSON to win as he has the name ID and NO baggage like his opponent(s)

 
At 9:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you're desperate for idle commentary here, there's more likelihood of GOP crossover supporting Councill as payback for Flowers' party switch and the bruises still felt from the Ruff Senate race.

In any event, it won't happen. There's too much draw in the GOP Lt Gov and AG races. This one's Councill's to lose.

 
At 10:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon- back that up with something

 
At 11:38 AM, Blogger not paul goldman said...

Flowers is good on the stump and has the best staff...and the most money..his own at the very least...I think this is a leans Flowers

 
At 12:06 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

In a four way it will depend who attacks who- at least two of them will knock each other out, guarenteed.

 
At 1:33 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Mr. Nicholson did much better than some party incumbents running for reelection in '03.

Which incumbents did he do better than?

 
At 1:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You've got some of your facts wrong. Local pundits know who's going to win this race. Flowers and Councill won't. Jerry is known as "Flip-flop" Flowers and his spending on the race is a local joke. Remember the Republican challenge to Tommy Norment (R., Williamsburg). The challenger spent a fortune.....and lost. Jerry has problems with his support of the private acasdemies. You are insulting when you refer to Councill's remarks as "slips-of-the-tongue". The comments were racist and anti-semitic and were carried in the national press. Councill also is a private academy booster and his tenue as Franklin mayor hasn't beel illustrious. If Flowers and Councill are Democrats, then the rest of us are communists. Ms. Tyler is not in an elected or appointed position. She is controlled by her husband. They live a grand lifestyle in Sussex. Word has it, including from Democrats in Richmond, that indictments to him and/or her are just around the corner. John Nicholson has no children, but he's a great public school advocate who was a teacher at one time. He ran against Delegate Councill(with 30 years incumbancy) and got 29%, more votes than many incumbants who were returned to office. He has kept up his contacts since 2003 and has built a strong coalition that stretches across party, gender, age and racial lines. He has promised to devote full time to the job. He was a committee clerk at the House for eight sessions. All that and that great coalition will take him to the nomination on June 14. Prediction:
Nicholson wins, then Councill, Flowers, Tyler, Goodwyn.

 
At 1:53 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm only familiar with the charges on Councill- not on what he actually said. Care to elaborate?

 
At 2:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You can find the Councill stories in the archives of The Washington Post, The Times-Dispatch, Virginian-Pilot and others. Pleeeeease. They're not charges, they're facts. He said them with his own mouth in press conferences in the fall of 1999. No one has forgotten them except Jim Councill.
I insist you do your own research, but I will paraphrase to help you along. After the flood, Councill suggested African-Americans in Franklin were not doing their part in the clean-up. In December, at another press conference, he was questioned about a nativity scene on city property. He asked the reporter if he were Jewish and the reporter replied "yes". Mayor Councill then told the reporter it was people like him "who mess up Christmas for the rest of us". Heck, I've done all the work for you. Are you going to argue that those comments are not racial and anti-semitic? Can they be defended? Excused? Do you honestly consider comments like that "slips-of-the-tongue"? Should anyone, including candidates, get by with making comments like that? John Nickelson will win this one and everybody's going to be looking. The 75th voters are not going to elect a bigot or a flip-flop. It's the first time in 32 years they've had any choice at all.

 
At 3:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not even close! Nicholson may not be the showiest candidate but he is knowledgeable and has done his homework. The others have their own varying agendas but Nicholson is--and this is a rarity in politics--dedicated to the task of really understanding the issues of his constituents and representing the district effectively. Don't think Councill Jr. will pick up many votes in Brunswick County after the way his dad betrayed voters there on the school board issue this spring. Is it too much to hope we'll get a representative who might actually do the job? Nicholson won't sing or dance for you but he will be doing the job we elected him for.

 
At 4:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why is it that Dems want someone who ran as an Indy against the 40 year Dem incumbent?

 
At 7:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dems aren't the only ones looking to Nicholson. He is a great change from candidates standing up in front of us mouthing platitudes. He talks specifically about bread-and-butter issues that affect us.

 
At 1:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The word I hear from the the district is that Nicholson is a nut.

 
At 2:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If "a nut" is someone who puts his cards on the table, tells the truth and has the time, effort, passion and desire to help people, then that archaic term defines Nicholson. Does anybody use that term now? Nicholson is completely different than the others. First, he has the legislative experience of working at the House. Second, he's altruistic, wanting nothing more than to bring improvement to the representation of the district. He's the only one who knows what it takes to be a good delegate. Before participating in silly name-calling, you should check out the facts. And grow up!

 
At 10:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"ohhh sucky ducky now."

omar epps, major league 2

 
At 11:05 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Someone else already pointed this out, but I have not seen any response from NLS or a correction, so I thought it might have gotten lost in there with everything else being discussed...Roslyn Tyler is NOT on the Sussex County Board of Supervisors.

 
At 11:18 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

My bad!

 
At 3:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Interestingly enough, Nicholson's education press release has four spelling errors and one grammatical error.

 
At 8:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To "Anonymous at 3:39 pm:
Someone's being a jerk. Are you one of Jerry Flowers' five staff people or Councill's cadre? You know good and well the errors were typos and were more than likely made when the website design people were transposing. You also know it's a well-written piece that speaks the truth. Mr. Nicholson taught me, my sister and my wife. He was an excellent classroom teacher of grammar and composition and we are supporting his candidacy because he is clearly the right man for the job. Never doubt his ability or his loyalty to a purpose. He has overcome some tough breaks in his life and dealt positively with too many tragedies for one person. Whoever you are or whatever you're trying to do is not going to hurt this man's credibility.

 
At 11:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hmmm....the postings were Word documents. It seems hard to to transpose letters when uploading a Word document. Maybe Nicholson's computer does not have spell check....I was simply pointing out the comical irony of an education piece having spelling and grammatical errors.

 
At 12:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

To Anonymous at 3:39 p.m.:

You were simply being a nit-picking jerk. Is the election about comical irony or picking a candidate who can represent effectively the 75th District for the first time in decades? Paul Councill slept through 32 years as delegate (ask anybody who served with him). His Republican son is a racist. Republican/Democrat Jerry Flowers wants to buy it. Roslyn Tyler and Rufus are common thieves. Not-Larry-Sabato has done no viable research and has factual errors that she/he won't explain or renounce. And, some jerk wants to nit-pick typing errors and call it "comical irony". The purpose and potential of this site are being wasted.

 
At 9:14 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey Mr. Anonymous, Nicholson supporter.

Y'all sure like to throw a lot -- and I mean LOT -- of mud on your opponents, don't you? Sounds like you've got a chip the size of a redwood on your shoulder.

 
At 2:21 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Thank God someone else said it. There is good attacks- then there is PATHETIC. That poster for Nicholson is pathetic.

 
At 12:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

One must also wonder if Nicholson is such a good Democrat now, why he chose to run as an independent 2 years ago. If he is such a good Democrat, he should have ran in a primary in 2003. It is a legitimate question for the Democrats of the 75th to ask Nicholson (or for Republicans in the 41st to ask Golden).

 
At 4:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Franklin paper claims Flowers has spent $103,000. How much per vote we wonder? Of that amount, only $700 has come from other sources. All the rest is from Candidate Flowers. Flowers will go the way of Paul Jost who ran against Sen.Tommy Norment in Williamsburg and it cost him $87 a vote. You can't buy votes most of the time. People in rural areas, especially, are offended. The other candidates have caontributions from a wide variety of sources which is the way it ought to be. The lomg-standing and escalating feud between the Councill and the Flowers families and the attacks in mailings and half-page ads about Flowers legal residences and his exaggerated claims of being responsible for almost everything except sliced bread will hurt. Councill won't be able to live down his racial remarks and defamation of a Jewish reporter. Racial relations in Franklin where he's mayor are awful. Candidate Roslyn Tyler's biggest problem is her husband who can't stay out of the race and seems to think he's the candidate. Their legal problems will pop wide open this summer. That leaves Goodwyn and Nicholson. They're both good candidates with strong education credentials. She is an appointee on Southampton school board. Nicholson has a couple up on her however because he ran in 2003 against the elder Councill and lost with a respectable 30% of the vote. Don't forget, too, he was a House of Delegates committee clerk for eight years and knows the process and more than 3/4 of the members. He lives outside the population centers which will help him attract voters who want fair representation from their delegate. Delegate J. Paul Councill has always basically focussed on his own area of Franklin/Southampton. Nicholson is the oldest of the five at 60 and will be able to devote full time to legislative duties.That's essential, we think, because the district covers many miles and there are problems from one end to the other. Voter turn-out will be pathetically low in this toss-up, but I'm calling this for Nicholson.

 
At 5:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

My sources tell me Nicholson will finish dead last.

 
At 7:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

flowers all the way!

 
At 4:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nicholson has excellent support in Brunswick, Greensville and Sussex. Councill, Flowers and Goodwyn are splitting Franklin and Southampton (remember, much of Franklin is in the 64th). Mrs. Goodwyn has turned out to be an excellent speaker and campaigner. Mrs. Tyler will get a few votes from precenct to precinct, but nothing to speak of. Her appearances have been dreadful at the forums.She didn't even come to the last one, poor thing. My pundits and experts from Tidewater, Richmond and the West are all saying the same thing: Whether the tyrnout is low or not, the nomination goes to Nicholson. Someone ought to tell him to get ready for calls, reporters and cameras in the next few days. And to watch his language. At times he likes to pepper his thoughts with profanity. Every time I heard him, he soke so you could understand and hear him. He paces himself. He never uses notes. Rarely is he rattled. He'll win against Carson Saunders and go to Richmond. The people in the 75th are the only District that have a new delegate who knows what he's doing. I personally think he's an excellent choice for the 75th.He appeals across age, gender and racial lines. He's humble. His offoce will look like a million bucks!In the not-too-distance-future, the people of Virginia wiil begin to take notice of the 75th District. Nicholson' plans are wonderfully unique and will ato those who want the quality of life improved. AT the end of this two year term you'll be amazed. If you're a Councill, Flowers, Goodwyn or Tyler supporter. I guarantee you'll be switched to Nicholson after his first two year term.

Now guys, let's stop jabbing and criticizing the candidates and look to the future. What are areas you need for Delegate Nicholson to work on? Please be serious. At the end of each session, he's going to present THE LAWAMKER AWARD to the person or people who make the best suggestions that become law. Give us you input now:

 
At 4:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

All the Flowers mailings I have received at my house in Emporia have been addressed to "Smith Residents" not the correct form "Smith Residence. Jerry talks about education alot, but nothing with depth. OK, Jerry. Make those guys give you some money back.

 
At 3:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nicholson would be an embarrassment for our community. He calls people who went to the academies in the area racists. I had a learning disability and my parents thought it was the best place for me. I personally don't want a name caller to be my delegate in Richmond. Go Jerry Flowers!

 
At 11:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

TO: ANONYMOUS AT 3:32 p.m.
Your must be Jerry Flowers'son, the one he constantly touts in his campaign as having learning disabilities and is "unable to pass the SOL's" .ANY educator will tell you that if you, in fact, have a learning disability, the best place for you is a public school that deals with same. NONE of the private academies in the 75th District or surrounding areas deal with learning disabled students and their offices have stated that they recommed public education for those students.The spokesman at SA, in fact, praised the public school programs. These academies do not have the faculty or staff trained to help you. They admit it. If the SOL's are a problem for you, any accommodation you need will be offered. So, that said, there are other reasons you are sent to a private academy. Since their objective was to separate the races in schools, one wonders if that is the reason you are sent to one. If you are Jerry Flowers' son, then we know your grandmother was headmistress at Southampton Academy and your family has been huge supporters of SA for many years. Nicholson doesn't care WHERE you go to school. Nicholson DOES care about truth and honesty. In the 75th District, you either support public education or you don't. It's very simple and Jerry FLowers, regardless of his pandering promotion of his manipulated VEA endorsement (the EduServe director is a Flowers family friend; not all candidates were interviewed) is a private academy person who supported these schools when the public schools needed people on their side. There are many Suthampton County people who have talked about this SUDDEN CONVERSION of Jerry and find it amazing. As for you, young man, the Nicholson forces wish you well and great success in achieving your goals, regardless of your disabilities. You should remember years from now, that you have been done a grave injustice and your ability to overcome your learning disabilities would have been much easier if you had been allowed to benefit from the excellent programs in the Southampton County PUBLIC Schools. Nicholson has never called anyone a racist in this regard. There is no person on the face of the earth who has heard him say that. What he has done is point out huge discrepancies that need to be examined by the electorate. Your complaints are juvenile and immature as is your language and behavior. The embarrassment is that your father has used you to further his political ambitions. Your father has employed immoral tactics. Your father has broken campaign rules. Your father has aligned himself with questionable characters like Richard Railey, Jr. who also chose to use his son in a blundered attempt to discredit Nicholson. Your father has spent $103,000 of your inheritance to win this campaign. Tomorrow night, we wonder how much that will be per vote. If he wins, he will have bought the election. That,son,is the EMBARRASSMENT.

 
At 8:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Take you meds, Mr. Nicholson.

 

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