Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, May 06, 2005

54th District

Outlook: Safe Republican
Primary: Toss Up

This in our opinion is the number one primary of the year. We've been saving the best for last on this one.

The incumbent here is Bobby Orrock. He's been challenged.... um..... hmmm..... ok, he's basically been unopposed since taking office 15 years ago.

His opponent is Shaun Kenney, the Chair of the Spotsylvania Republican Committee.

There are a few things we like about Shaun here, over the other primary challengers in the state.

#1- Website- Shaun's website actually links to the other GOP challengers around the state. Any political advisor would tell their candidate to NEVER do that (lose web traffic). We think it is a great move, it reinforces he is running on a message, and that his campaign is about that message, not just himself. Voters can read between the lines and pick that up. One suggestion- take down the link to the one that is going to prison... (and according to anonymous smells like swamp funk).

#2- In contrast to the Prince William districts that will have a statewide candidate (Connaughton) working on bringing a large "moderate" turnout, this district is adjacent to, and overlaps a little with Bill Bolling's Senate district. Bolling will be working on bringing out very conservative voters, giving Kenney a much more favorable electorate.

#3-Kenney's campaign according to my sources is the best run, and most active of all the Republican primary challengers around the state.

After lacking a real challenger for so long, and representing a fast growing district with lots of newcomers, Orrock doesn't even have a big name rec advantage going for him.

The only reason this is a "tossup" and not leaning Kenney is money. Orrock's lack of a challenge has allowed him to compile a large stockpile of money. Kenney's fundraising isn't shabby either- and we noticed a large number of donors coming from within his district (good sign). If Kenney can spend his money well, and survive the onslaught coming, he should be able to win this one.

NotLarrySabato is in D.C. today at a friends office getting ready to go to the Wizards game down the street. Will be back to post again tomorrow after Gilbertology wins the series and sends us to Miami for the second round!


At 11:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

hell fucking yeah wiz!!! 23 long years!

At 12:52 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I was there when Webber missed the shot in 95 or 96 in game 3 against the Michael Jordan Bulls (last playoff appearance). It was so sweet to be the Bulls to go home. :)

At 12:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Larry- Is that an endorsment?

At 1:05 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Of the Wizards or Kenney?

At 2:44 PM, Blogger Pastor John said...

i endorse shaun kenney because he has the testicular fortitude to conquer the homosexual agenda, now spreading across danville and middleburg and donating to russ potts

At 5:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can't endorse Kenney because of his lovefest with the local animal rights group. I believe in treating animals kindly, but I don't believe in 350% license fee tax increases to pay for elaborate systems of bureaucrats and social engineering. I can't believe a purported conservative would embrace a group with that kind of agenda.

The Virginia Hunting Dog Owner's group just endorsed Orrock. If you hunt, look into this before you vote. Or you may not be able to afford to keep that hunting dog of yours. And if you just have a dog as a pet, keep in mind - that 350% tax increase is for you too.

At 6:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Orrock voted for the largest tax hike in Virginia history! Are you blind, or just an Orrock supporter with free time?

Kenney is doing a great job hammering home the issues. As an avid 2nd Amendment supporter, I am supporting Kenney 100%. Orrock is no friend of the 2nd Amendment.

At 9:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've seen some of Kenney's mail. What a bigot!!!!!

At 10:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I lack the testicular fortitude to put a name to my posts calling people bigots.

At 11:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No, actually you lack the testicular fortitude to put your name on a post asking for my name

At 12:37 AM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

Anon, I don't, who are you?

At 4:26 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Orrock is a true friend of the Second Amendment, and a longtime gun safety instructor.

Look at his endorsements. They speak for themselves.

Kenney has come out supporting a group whose tax increases and nightmarish regulatory schemes will make it almost impossible for Virginians to hunt with dogs.

The taxes and bureaucracy and labyrinthine rules his little friends want to put in place are worse then in the People's Republic of Maryland. Does he call them a bunch of liberal wackos? No, on his web site, he calls them a great group of activists. Some conservative.

And 350% tax increases on dog owners - not just hunters - pet owners too.

Take a look at who got the endorsements. Kenney got zippy. Orrock was endorsed by all of the major groups - not just the gun groups and hunting groups, but also has the support of the mainstream pet owner groups.

If you own a dog or if you like to hunt, do yourself a favor - don't take my word for it - check out who the groups endorsed. Hunting and fishing are Virginia traditions - don't let Kenney sell us out.

At 11:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you kidding me? Orrock voted for one gun a month!!!

I'm sorry - either your a liberal plant or you're just flat out lying. Kenney answered every gun survey I've seen 100%. You couldn't ask for a stronger person on the 2nd Amendment. Not to mention beign a warrior the pro-life and tax issues on which Orrock is notoriously weak.

Kenney's picked up the endorsement of every major GOP organization in his district. Orrock didn't even bother showing up to the Spotsylvania GOP meeting! For good reason too - I would have given him a piece of my mind.

At 11:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bet you can't show me one line where Kenney supports a tax increase.

Go ahead, show us the survey pal!

Liberals cloaking themselves as gunnies. Gotta love 'em.

At 12:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Let me put it this way. The Virginia Hunting Dog Owner's Association just endorsed Orrock. Kenney wasn't even graded - that's how bad he was.

You may be worried about Orrock. I'm not. Kenney's embrace of the AR agenda has me scared to death - his candidacy is the greatest threat to our hunting and fishing traditions I've seen in my lifetime.

I'm not a liberal and I'm not lying. I'm a Republican who wants to keep my dogs. I'm so angry about this I can't see straight. So are a lot of other people.

Kenney basically endorsed the VVAW, the local animal rights group, calling them a great group of activists. Word on the street is that he's going to put forward their breeder's licensing bill, which would basically make it impossible for anyone who's not a millionaire to breed hunting dogs.

Here's just one little tiny piece of the agenda of the folks Kenney is in bed with. Realize that the AR's define "for profit" as anyone who sells even one puppy. If you're a hunter and you breed one litter of Beagles, and sell one puppy for $35, this group wants you to - and these are quotes:

“1. no person may be involved in the commerce of breeding and selling dogs/cats in Virginia without a valid breeder’s license and without a valid business license awarded by the county in which the business is conducted

breeders get breeder’s licenses by showing accreditation by the local chapter of that breed group and the state vet

breeders may not receive business licenses without first having a breeder’s license

2. breeders in violation of business license requirements are fined $3K for the first violation, $5K for the second, and $10K for each successive violation

3. every dog/cat sold must be identified

4. no adoption or sale may be consummated if the dog/cat is not sterile unless the purchaser buys a breeder license for the specific animal prior to purchase or adoption,or unless other good cause is shown, such as age, health or sequestration;

membership in a sporting group or hunting club will not be adequate reason for non-sterilization”

All this for someone who sells even one Beagle puppy. That's not what I call a conservative agenda.

Kenney doesn't have a clue about how dogs fit into Virginia's hunting traditions, and he's willing to sell us out. We're not going to let him sell us down the river without a fight.

At 12:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kenney's animal rights pals put a bill in last session for a 350% tax increase for dog license fee taxes, and an elaborate system of additional fees and taxes that they estimated would, altogether, bring in another $70 million from Virginia's dog owners.

Pun alert - you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.

You lie down with liberal animal rights groups, and you buy into their agenda, you can't escape that the main part of that agenda involves raising taxes. They're a "great group of activists" in his opinion - and their activity is centered around raising taxes and adding bureaucracy.

I'm not a liberal. I'm an opponent of the radical animal rights agenda that threatens our hunting, farming, and pet-owning traditions. Kenney got in bed with those people, and he sold us out.

Maybe you don't care about protecting your rights. I do. Name calling doesn't change the truth.

At 2:08 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm staying out of this one. :)

At 3:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I live in the 54th- and have a BIG problem with Kenney campaign lies. For one, they said "Orrock is only alightly less liberal then the Democrats". LIE. Orrock is MUCH more liberal than most Democrats.

At 4:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As far as I can tell, Shaun was endorsed by them, not the other way around. And the only thing Shaun has said about them is his support of their measure where they use private funds to help build more humane ways to euthenize animals, instead of asking the government to do it. Gee, private means to cover what others would want to government to pay for? That sounds awfully conservative to me.

Bobby Orrock's stance on the 2nd amendment leaves much to be desired. Shaun Kenney is a staunch supporter of gun rights and that includes hunting rights.

But you scream of VVAW's wanting to push legislation to increase dog licensing fees 350% yet you ignore Bobby Orrock's $1.4 BILLION TAX HIKE that disproportionately targets the poor and elderly who can not afford to pay more for the clothes no their back or roof over their head. His inability to stand against tax increases last year does not instill any confidence in me that he wouldn't do it again, even on dog licences.

At 4:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Orrock is NOT pro-2nd Amendment. Anyone who says otherwise is flat out lying.

Orrock gets a 40% approval rating from NARAL, pats on the back from liberals to vote for gun control and their tax and spend agenda, and oh yes - VOTES FOR ONE GUN A MONTH - I guess we know exactly where Orrock's friends are.

The Spotsy GOP endorsed Kenney UNANIMOUSLY. That's everyone folks. They know where Kenney is on their issues.

Kenney has been endorsed by every local GOP group in the 54th. Orrock, not a one. . . didn't even bother showing up to the Spotsy GOP. Kenney raised his money from within the 54th. Orrock gets his money from special interests like the VEA.

Yeah, we know who's with conservatives. It ain't who we got now!

Kenney is a stand up conservative; pro-life, anti-tax, and pro-2nd Amendment. Orrock is a squish on life, taxes, and guns.

I'm voting for Shaun. Hands down the best choice in the race.

At 4:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm not a liberal. I'm an opponent of the radical animal rights agenda that threatens our hunting, farming, and pet-owning traditions.

Then you're behind the wrong guy! Go look at Orrock's record on guns, then look at Kenney's responses to the gun surveys.

Kenney is rock solid on guns and life. I wouldn't be supporting him otherwise.

At 4:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not only is Kenney backed by the GOP in the 54th but he's also backed by INDIVIDUALS in the 54th. Look at the VPAP figures for the first quarter, Orrock didn't get a dime from within the district while Kenney pulled a bunch from people who can actually vote for him.

At 5:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shaun has called them a great group of animal activists. Sure sounds like an endorsement to me.

There's nothing in the bill they proposed about private funds. That was something they offered verbally. Guess what - if they want to offer private funds, they can - nothing's stopping them. They don't need a bill for that.

The bill that Kenney endorsed left the localities holding the bag with an unfunded state mandate. If the money donated wasn't enough, if it didn't come through for any reason, or if there were ongoing costs, the taxpayer would have held the bag.

When folks expressed concerns following Shaun's little spiel, Jason said that Shaun stood for animal rights.

When more folks expressed concerns lately when the topic came up on another blog, Jason said that there was a lot more to the race than breeding permits, and then dismissed the desire to have dogs of a specific breed with a comment that folks should adopt animals out of the pound instead of dogs bred deliberately for a purpose.

Sure doesn't sound like someone who supports dog owners, or who's worried about folks being able to breed dogs for hunting or foxhunting or show or anything else. Sounds more like someone who has given us the shaft.

Support Kenney if you want to. Hope you don't mind paying platinum prices for a dog tag and having to deal with 500 forms and inspections to buy a puppy. I'm supporting Orrock. He's got the VHDOA endorsement, and I'm comfortable that he has a clue about animal owners.

At 5:27 PM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

Oh, I'm sorry if I don't side with animal breeders. But by no means should you apply that to Shaun. Contact him if you have issues and get him to reply, don't go off of what I say because I am not him. And I say everything I do as an animal owner.

Personally, while I'm never a large fan of single issue voting, for that single issue to be animal breeding, well, I don't know. There are bigger things out there to be worried about. Like one of the Anons pointed out, a tax increase on the poor and elderly is a good place to start. And, like they also said, if Bobby backed that, what's to say he won't back an increase on animal licenses in the future? Shaun is staunchly anti-tax increase and pro-2nd Amendment through and through, but if you're willing to buy lip service from someone who has not voted that way in the past, well, that's up to you.

At 5:27 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I know people in the 54th who gave Orrock money. Why wouldn't VPAP show their donations?

At 5:32 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Because they gave under $100?

At 7:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Or they are embarassed to be seen with orrock "vacumn up my taxes into for your homosexual programs"?

At 8:14 PM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

Or they are embarassed to be seen with orrock "vacumn up my taxes into for your homosexual programs"?

Woah, hey now, that's a bit much and statements like that do nothing to further debate. If you're going to be anonymous, the least you should do is be polite (though the lack of politeness is usually what drives folks to go anon).

At 9:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The 54th might tighten, but it's hard to see it #1 over the 45th or the 75th. Somehow the local GOP activists haven't gotten it together in some while and don't seem carry much polling weight. Witness Rothfeld and Stuber two years ago. The bloggers then were hot for both, but they fizzled.

At 9:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon, but the Bolling challenge for LG does a lot for getting people out to the polls.

At 9:54 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Hey, 2 annonymouses ago,

I've got it as the best one because it is 1- close and 2- would have a major change on the legislature (almost like a party turnover). The 45th and 75th are both very exciting- BUT- not a lot of philosphical differences there.

At 11:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you're a conservative on the ground in the 54th, you know this is a hot race. And if you think the grassroots aren't mobilized, look at the numbers Spotsylvania's GOP chairman put up in 2004 for Bush. Houck's in trouble in 2007 if Spotsylvania remains revved up for Kenney like it is (which might be why you are seeing some Dems pull for Orrock).

Kenney's running a very disciplined campaign. Win or lose, he's one to watch.

PS - As for the VVAW vs. VDHOC, keep in mind that there have been two dog maulings in the Fredericksburg area very recently. One was an old lady, another a small child. For the politically astute, Kenney made a smart play. Kenney visits VVAW, and an organization that lets dogs run loose in rural Spotsylvania endorses his opponent. Now not only is Kenney pro-2nd Amendment, he's for animal rights too - while his opponent is viewed as being soft on guns and supports letting dangerous animals run amok.

Is anyone else catching this? Great play. Great play.

At 11:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good call on this race. Having met both gentlemen running, Kenney's better on the issues and has a shot. Cute kids too!

At 1:09 AM, Blogger johnny law said...

"The Spotsy GOP endorsed Kenney UNANIMOUSLY. That's everyone folks. They know where Kenney is on their issues."

And that has absolutely nothing to do with the fact that he chairs the Spotsylvania GOP, does it?

In politics, endorsements from weblogs and an organization a candidate heads are absolutely worthless (unless you're someone like Sandra Froman).

At 2:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

That's Edd Houck's legislative aide. Think he an agenda against Kenney?

At 2:20 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shaun also has the endorsement of the Caroline County GOP, as well as Stafford and Fredericksburg GOP committees. While he at one time headed the Fredericksburg one, the other two he hasn't.

At 5:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Excuse me, but VVAW has absolutely nothing to do with dogs running at large. NONE of their bills they've put forward address that. They had bills to raise taxes, a school bill, several bills to add fees and inspections, etc.

They had no legislative initiatives about dangerous dogs. They had no legislative initiatives about leash laws. None. Nada. Zip. Zero. If you investigated that, you'd know. I can't imagine how you missed it, as their last year's legislative goals are online, and their legislative plan is online. "Raise taxes and add bureaucracy" pretty much sums up most of their goals.

There is no organization called VHDOC.

ALL of the major animal organizations in this state - VHDOA, VFDCB, ADOA, VFHS, VACA - oppose animals running at large. These are organizations that people have actually heard of. These are organizations that are actually incorporated.

These are organizations that have hundreds (at least two, probably all, represent thousands) of members all across the state, and that have been involved in legislation for years. These are organizations that have a significant base of popular support, and that have a proven history of doing good work.

By endorsing VVAW - who has been attacking the established groups - Shaun did not do a politically smart thing. He endorsed a small fringe group that has been repeatedly attacking larger, more popular groups in a subject in which people are extremely passionate. Does that sound like good strategy to you?

It also indicates that Kenney doesn't know who the players are in animal law in this state. Do you think that adds to his credibility?

The established organizations have actually worked on legislation to enforce leash laws and strengthen dog laws, and are the reason that Virginia has the pretty good animal laws it has.

Kenney endorsed a brand new group with a tiny handful of members. A group that is way outside of the mainstream, and that is actually interfering with efforts to get better laws. I'm sure, like most, they mean well, but they're pretty extremist - their agenda can IMHO be summed up as raise taxes, add a lot of bureaucracy, and eliminate the use of gas euthanasia. The last is not a bad idea. The rest of their ideas, IMHO, pretty much suck.

As far as being for animal rights, it's becoming blinding clear that many of you don't understand the distinction between animal welfare and animal rights.

Animal rights can be summed up pretty well with the fact that the animal rights movement is attempting to have animals recognized as "people" under the law, in the same sense in which corporations are considered "people." (Do a web search on Bob Barker and ALDF. It's so far out there most people are missing it - but it's being funded as part of the legal curriculum in law schools across the country, including Duke.)

You would no longer own an animal - you would be its guardian. What you could do to the animal would be limited to what's in that's animal's best interest. If you were no longer in its best interest, someone else would be its guardian.

I suspect, and most scholars concur, that under such a system, hunting, eating meat, riding horses, etc are not exactly going to be permitted.

Animal WELFARE is a belief system that believes in treating animals kindly, but accepts and recognizes the Judeo-Christian belief that man was created to have dominion over animals, that we can ethically make use of them, and that we are expected by God to take good care of them.

The two terms are not interchangeable. When you say you are for animal rights, you are saying that you are against hunting. You are saying you are against eating meat. You are saying that you are against wearing leather. In extreme cases, you are saying you are against pet ownership.

Animal rights would be the folks who throw blood on people wearing fur, the folks who dress up like condoms outside Liberty University to protest the use of lambskin condoms, the folks who disrupt hunts and break into medical labs. At the extreme, these are the folks who are recognized as terrorists by the FBI.

Somehow I really doubt that's the image you're trying to promote Shaun as holding. Being for "animal rights" is not an advantage in Virginia. Berkely, maybe.

At 6:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Jason, it isn't a matter of "supporting animal breeders." It's a question of whether people are allowed to have specific breeds of dogs - hunting dogs, herding dogs, show dogs.

My family has been farming in Virginia for quite a few generations. One of my strongest ties to the Republican party is my belief that Republicans better appreciate rural communities and traditional ways of life. I'm not seeing that appreciation right now, to be blunt.

Unwanted animals don't primarily come from breeders. They primarily come from unplanned mixed-breed litters and from irresponsible people who give up their pets.

Virginia has a very good program, SpayVA, that is helping solve the unwanted litter problem. Of course, VVAW opposes SpayVA getting voluntary contributions from tax refunds, supposedly because they don't think it's "fair." Go figure.

Terry Kilgore got asked by a local constituent to put in a bill for VVAW. Ask him how popular it was. Word is he had 1300 emails and 800 phone calls against it the FIRST DAY. He pulled it in committee.

This is a hot button for a lot of people. Don't underestimate the level of passion here.

At 8:34 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It also indicates that Kenney doesn't know who the players are in animal law in this state. Do you think that adds to his credibility?

I think it shows he's got better priorities.

At 9:17 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shaun also has the endorsement of the Caroline County GOP

Not so hasty now. . . Kenney has the endorsement of the Chairman of the Caroline County GOP (as well as Stafford, King George, and Fredericksburg's GOP Chairmen), but only the Spotsy Committee has endorsed.

Unanimously. That means to not a single Orrock supporter came to vote.


At 10:24 AM, Blogger johnny law said...

"That's Edd Houck's legislative aide. Think he an agenda against Kenney?"

No, I'm no longer Senator Houck's aide. I'm a law student. I have my name up here, so who are you?

I know Shaun personally. I like him. He's been to my house when I lived in Fredericksburg. We've chatted quite cordially about local politics over drinks. If he ran as Shaun the person, I'd be more supportive. Unfortunately he's running as Shaun the Republican.

Lest we forget, the last person to run in the area on the sole fact that he was Republican, 100% pro-life and anti-tax got his ass handed to him on a platter by the aforementioned Senator Houck.

Shaun worked the Stuber campaign. I hope (and he probably has) learned a few lessons. Central Virginians won't just vote for you because of the R in front of your name. It takes more - personality, character and ties to the community. Unless, of course, you're running for president...

At 11:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How much will Kenney, Jarvis, et al benefit from the $220,000 that American Tort Reform Assn just gave VCAP?

At 12:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Oh your not annonymous Johnny Law? I didn't see you include that info until I revealed you. Kenney's win will restore some of the honesty and integrity the area lost with Edd Houck's last victory.

At 12:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If VCAP is smart, $75K for Kenney, $75K for Jarvis, $75K for Craddock, and $75K for Golden (maybe for Golden, unless we have another Ken Cuccinelli there).

At 12:18 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You going to chip in the extra $80,000 annonymous?

At 1:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Heh - I thought that's what they had left as of right now!

At 2:11 PM, Blogger johnny law said...

"Oh your [sic] not annonymous [sic] Johnny Law? I didn't see you include that info until I revealed you. Kenney's win will restore some of the honesty and integrity the area lost with Edd Houck's last victory."

Revealed me? Like Houdini? Not like it matters anyway. No, I don't preface any comment I make online with "Hi, my name is John and I used to work for so-and-so." I'm registered with Blogger and thus it's rather easy to identify who I am.

When a Democrat wins a Republican leaning Senate district 60/40, it's rather safe to say that a majority of the voters believe that candidate has integrity and does a good job. That's all that most Virginians are looking for in a state representative - not ideology or soundbites, but someone they respect and think will do them right down in Richmond.

Hell, I even voted for Bill Howell (when he was opposed)-- despite his political affiliation -- because I thought he'd be more effective in Richmond than his opponent. Stay in school and don't be a party hack.

At 3:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Shaun's running to the right is good for the primary, but to avoid a stiff Dem challenge he may have to temper himself after June.

At 3:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Forgetaboutit johnny law. Just remember: elections are about the choices on the ballot. So they didn't like Stuber and voted for the "Goddamned Democrat"? They just might like Del. Kenney or Del. Jarvis when they come out at Edd Houck like a freight train! And if we don't get him in 07? There will be a redistricting with a new Senate seat coming to the area... Ed's is so long and thin now, we'll just put a piece with Bill Bolling, a piece with Chichester (who will also be gone by then), a piece in the Valley... you get the picture. Then Mr. JohnnyLaw and Mr. Edd Houck can both come KISS MY ASS!

At 3:43 PM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

And we have found the level of the room. Let's try and keep it civil here, folks, especially if you're going to keep hiding behind Anon.

I for one am glad to see Johnny Law around, especially with his name. I think before one gets into a fit of "outing" others they should be willing to sign their names to their posts first. Either way, Johnny's insight is worthwhile, even if I don't entirely agree with it. Bias or no. Hell, I'm biased, being Shaun's brother, but no one's running around screaming that (though maybe that's because it's obvious, the name and all).

Either way, I think Shaun's running as a "Republican" is what's going to work in the primary. The district's heavily Republican and barring any major crossover he's got an excellent shot at unseating Bobby. His stances on the issues that matter resonates with the district and I think it'll show in June.

At 4:12 PM, Blogger johnny law said...

"I for one am glad to see Johnny Law around, especially with his name. I think before one gets into a fit of "outing" others they should be willing to sign their names to their posts first. Either way, Johnny's insight is worthwhile, even if I don't entirely agree with it. Bias or no. Hell, I'm biased, being Shaun's brother, but no one's running around screaming that (though maybe that's because it's obvious, the name and all)."
Thanks Jason, though you can just call me John, since "johnny law" is my Blogger ID and the title of my own weblog. I'll refrain from addressing the not nice fellow above - one, 'cause he thinks it's appropriate to curse and two, because he obviously doesn't know what he's talking about. The district lines won't be redrawn until post 2010 (the next Census) and I honestly can't see Houck and Chichester not retiring before then.

"Either way, I think Shaun's running as a "Republican" is what's going to work in the primary. The district's heavily Republican and barring any major crossover he's got an excellent shot at unseating Bobby."
Of course it does. I'm merely lamenting the fact that I like Shaun the individual more than Shaun the Republican. Not that he should take my advice for the Republican primary...

"His stances on the issues that matter resonates with the district and I think it'll show in June."
Shaun picked an extremely advantageous time to run. There's a Democratic primary this year, so Democrats in the district have to choose either a) choosing between the "lesser of two evils" (Orrock) because they're not going to put up anyone of substance in November or b) voting in their own primary. I doubt Shaun will get "Rothfelded", since most Democrats will want to vote in their primary. Since the 17th Senatorial District encompasses a portion of the 54th (albiet not all that much), I think it's fair to say that the district interests are similar. Robert Stuber's "I'm a Republican, so you should vote for me" strategy failed miserably. It very well work for Shaun to portray himself as the "bigger, badder" Republican, but if voters in the 54th are satisfied with Orrock, I sincerely doubt it.

Okay, I lied, one potshot at Mr. Bigshot terrible typer... For 20 years the RPV has been trying to get rid of Houck. They've failed six times. Vakos spent nearly $1 million (unprecedented at that time and double what either Stuber or Houck spent in '04) in '87 to try and unseat Houck. He lost. If there's a Delegate Kenney? Ask the former Spotsy GOP Chair (Moulton) how he fared against Houck... twice. So save your money and wait for the good Senator to retire.

At 4:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Orrock's counting on the crossover. Question is whether or not Democrats are going to vote in a GOP primary with a four-way race for Lt. Gov.

Kenney's putting Orrock on the ropes. Just look at the ads. First Orrock's a conservative, then he's a moderate, then he's a "common-sense conservative" who raises taxes... bottom line is that Orrock is on defense and Kenney is playing offense and staying on message.

One thing we don't want to forget in this whole mess is the Popowicz affair back in '03. Orrock un-endorsed a Republican in favor of the Democrat, and Caroline Republicans lost that supervisors seat by a handful of votes. Caroline Republicans remember that, and don't be surprised if Caroline County doesn't throw the race for Kenney in the end.

Most underreported story in the race yet. Orrock should be tarred and feathered for what he did to Popowicz!!!

At 4:22 PM, Anonymous Ben Tribbett said...

I'm with my friend "Johnny Law" on this one. Anonymous- If you as a fredneck want to attack other frednecks, go ahead. But leave Johnny Law out, he's a Fairfax guy, like myself.

At 4:42 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

54 for the 54th!

At 4:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm done with Mr. Law except to say if you thought you would win, you'd say bring it on, not save your money.

to mr tribett i'd much rather be a "fredneck" as your elisist northern virginian ass calls me, then a fairfaxian

At 5:05 PM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

Of course it does. I'm merely lamenting the fact that I like Shaun the individual more than Shaun the Republican.

I think that's an issue you'll run into with any candidate in any election. Well, not any, but most guys, whether or not you agree with their opinions, are probably really good guys when you get down to it. But in order to make the election seem like a "choice" you have to pick a side and ignore the greys on a lot of issues and you end up looking like a bad guy to some and a hero to others. Just an unfortunate effect of politics that we all should lament.

Both Shaun and Bobby are good guys, Bobby just made a few bad votes and for that the people of the 54th should have the right to make a decision on whether or not they agree with that. Shaun's offering that alternative.

At 5:41 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Thanks all for this discussion. Jason, would you like to be the official "cool it" person on our blog? You have now twice succesfully defused comments that were getting out of control.

At 6:18 PM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

Hmmm... can I have the official title "Comment Nazi"? It'd give some folks some fodder against Shuan.

Anyways, sorry if I'm overstepping my bounds there, just don't like good conversations turning into mud fests.

At 6:20 PM, Blogger Jason Kenney said...

Maybe I should learn to spell my bro's name properly first. Or he could change his name to "Shuan". It'd be easier for me.

At 6:33 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Comment Nazi it is! I really appreciate you stepping in, I try to, but I'm not always around the same time you are.

At 11:25 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"How much will Kenney, Jarvis, et al benefit from the $220,000 that American Tort Reform Assn just gave VCAP?"

Based on yesterday's VCAP endorsement of Bob McDonnell, probably not much.

At 11:14 AM, Blogger Matt said...

Was anyone able to see/hear the debate between Orrock and Kenney last night? The FLS has an article on it, Jason posted on it, and so did I.

At 11:27 AM, Blogger Kevin said...

As a former co-worker of Del. Orrock, I have to say I am dismayed that he is being challenged this year.

I can't believe that a vote to make our state solvent, save its AAA bond rating, fund education, and stop the shut down of the government has some people wanting to fire him for doing his job! As a very partisan Democrat, I would be proud and honored to vote for Bobby even if it meant not voting in the Democratic primary. That's what some people I know are doing in the 67th right now. I guess I'll have to talk to some of my friends down in Spotsy to get them to come out on June 14th.

At 4:50 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ah yes, more Democrats voting for their own.

At 6:26 PM, Blogger Kevin said...

Ah yes...what? Are you saying that Democrats are more inclusive and that we can vote for Republicans from time to time because we would rather see someone that shares some views of ours (i.e. balanced budgets, schools funded) rather than someone who is 180 degrees our opposite? Then I guess you have a point.

At 3:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're just voting for someone who shares your liberal views.

No one blames you for that. We do blame Bobby though.

At 2:23 PM, Anonymous bh2oguy said...

I want to thank the person that mentioned what Bobby Orrock did to me (Bobby Popowicz)in 2003 when I ran my campaign for Supervisor in Caroline County. What Bobby Orrock didn't count on is that my family is very well known and liked in Woodford. There are many people still upset with Orrock for the 1/4 page ad he took out to try to make me into some sort of liar. To make matters worse he un-endorsed me. He tried to ruin my career and in so doing, he has just about ruined his own and helped mine and Shuan's tremendously. We lost by 89 votes in a three way race.

The campaign squad from my election has been out hitting know Republicans in the area. We figure that we will carry the Woodford Precinct for Shaun. Just another little tid bit. Bobby received a little over 450 of a possible 1200 votes in the Woodford precinct that election...and he was running unopposed. Through other endeavors Bobby has ticked off key Democrates in Caroline County and has very little, if any, Democratic support here. Of course, the Republican support is almost nothing. I am looking forward to handing out literature for Shaun at the poles. We have our team in place. We are ready for the fight, and look forward to gving Bobby Orrock his just reward.

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