Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, May 03, 2005

30th District Outlook

30th District
Outlook: Safe Republican
Primary Outlook: Toss Up

The 30th District is currently represented by Delegate Ed Scott, a first term moderate Republican. Scott is in a long series of moderate Delegates from this district, following Democrat Butch Davies and Republican George Broman. The 30th district includes all or parts of Culpeper, Madison and Orange Counties. This is a very conservative district.

Mark Jarvis is the challenger in the Republican primary. A conservative preacher and veteran, Jarvis fits this district well. This is a district where an upset is very possible. Lots of well read local media give the candidates an outlet to voters- making Scott's money advantage less daunting. Jarvis is a candidate who voters will remember, he is very striking.

This may be the most exciting Republican primary in the state. Ed Scott's best chance is a large Democratic crossover- which is possible with none of the Democrats on the ballot having a base in this area. Right now, we are calling this a toss up.


At 11:48 AM, Blogger Pastor John said...

i have endorsed mr jarvis. i alerted his campaign of my endorsement, but they have not written me back with a check. yet.

my first endorsement: mark jarvis

At 12:29 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

They should Pastor John. You are a very influental endorsment as Virginia's most read blog. How about linking to our small blog?

At 1:00 PM, Blogger Pastor John said...

you are right. my blog has had over 15k hits in 5 days. it is amazing how many people have come to gawk, gape, and be converted away from the vice grip of the sodomites. i will link to you, but must promise not to give any of the money you make off your blog to the free masons or the mingers.

At 1:53 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Yes, you have my promise

At 10:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't think this will be as close as you say. Have you ever noticed that the really social conservatives are from the suburbs. You don't hear much of the strident talk from the rural guys, even though most of them are conservative.

Why? Because those guys have to face everyone at the grocery store, the feed store, the Friday night football game, etc.

Even though the 30th is deeply religious, it's a quiet religiousity in many ways. I think Scott has enough bona fides to cruise to victory here.

At 12:43 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Interesting annonymous. I won't disagree with any of that.

At 6:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ed Scott by 20% over Mark Jarvis. His record is incredibly strong and Jarvis is out of touch with the 30th's sportsmen and farmers. Significant crossovers will also help Scott.

At 8:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A 20% margin may be low. I attended the Scott-Jarvis debate sponsored by the Orange County Republicans today and found Jarvis unusually inarticulate, especially for a preacher. He was also poorly prepared and unable justify his criticisms of the Scott votes that he attacks on his website. By any objective standard, Scott overwhelmed him.

At 8:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ed Scott in blow out.

At 7:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm from the 30th district everyone has there support behind ed scott he is friendly and light hearted he was walking along the firemans parade and everyones face lite up ed will win by a blow out just solely from the liberals not wanting jarvis to will my predtion though is scott only by 15%


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