Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Saturday, May 28, 2005

1st District Update

1st District

Outlook: Safe Republican (for now)

Lots of emails coming in this morning in regards to the announcement of Rex McCarty to challenge Terry Kilgore in the 1st Delegate District. Rex is a good candidate, strong for his district, and we have nothing bad to say about him.

But he isn’t going to win.

This area of Virginia which used to be even between Democrats and Republicans has been moving to the GOP quickly.

In the precincts that make up the 1st Delegate District check out the last 3 Presidential Elections (major parties only):

1996
Clinton 51.3
Dole 48.7

2000
Gore 43.1
Bush 56.9

2004
Kerry 36.8
Bush 63.2

Or this.

In 1996, when Mark Warner lost a race for the U.S. Senate he carried the 1st Delegate District by over 3,500 votes- one of his biggest wins outside of any majority African American district.

However, in 2001, when he ran and won statewide for Governor, he lost the 1st Delegate District by 500 votes, with Kaine and McEachin even further behind.

You’ll remember that was after Warner made this area of the state his #1 priority in the campaign (“Hero of the Hills”). That campaign was effective. Given how quickly this area is going GOP it could have been a lot worse.

Democrats want this race badly, and for obvious reasons. Nothing would be sweeter for Dems then to defeat Jerry Kilgore’s twin brother.

Even though this is a Safe Republican seat, there is one chance for Democrats....

Mama Kilgore, the registrar of Scott County has been caught with her "hand in the voting jar" in some recent elections, including the overturned Gate City Mayor’s race. If she wants Terry to stay in the House, this had better be the cleanest election ever run in Southwest Virginia. Everyone is watching closely. One whiff of anything unusual, even just a hint of it, could make this race competitive and quickly. This area may be trending Republican, but they won’t let the GOP win any other way then the most votes.

The Kilgore's consolidating too much power was a big reason why the GOP lost the Scott County Board of Supervisors in 2003. They better be careful to realize that, because outside of that issue they have an easy win here.

5 Comments:

At 6:03 PM, Anonymous Fairy Kilgore said...

I'm considering running for John Warner's Senate seat in 2008 when he retires.

 
At 11:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your numbers are off here. Lots of Democrats stayed home in the Presidential election in 04 so we could suprise Kilgore in 05.

 
At 11:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You might want to check out the large numbers that Congressman Rick Boucher has earned over the past few years, including conservative Scott County where he overwhelmingly defeated a conservative Republican opponent, Kevin Triplett in 2004. Also the First District includes more than Scott County, you also have to add in Lee County and portions of both Wise and Washington Counties. This is going to be much, much closer than you think

 
At 12:13 PM, Anonymous Gary Kilgore said...

I'm really short, Willis

 
At 3:16 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I did add in every precinct in the 1st District, thats where those numbers came from.

 

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