Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Saturday, April 23, 2005

Update on the 42nd District (8th Hottest)

Old Rating: Likely Republican
New Rating: Likely Republican
Possible Rating if Werkheiser keeps up some momentum: Leans Republican



The Connection went toe to toe with Albo and Werkheiser stories this week. Both of them performed pretty well. Albo was a little whiny... but if he wasn't his constituents would know it was a spokesman! Werkheiser says too much when too little comes out.

Worst Quote (Albo):
"You look at Springfield and the south county before Dave Albo and after, and what you see is that we have more transportation funding in my district than any other place than the entire state," said Albo.

Dave- You don't give that quote while you are running.... that's a quote for after a loss.

Worst Quote (Werkheiser):
If you could meet anyone else, at any time in history, who would it be and why? I would buy Mr. Jefferson a beer the day he drafted the Declaration of Independence.

Greg- The question was if you could MEET someone, not "If you could take anyone out drinking...."

Just a little bashing. Overall both candidates did a good job getting their message out in this article.


At 11:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Eh No Larry- If You don't have anything nice to say- don't say anything at all

At 11:36 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Jefferson was a light weight. I could drink him under the table.

At 1:02 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I stopped drinking when I got a great looking woman to marry me. Werkheiser should do the same. His wife is a borderline supermodel!

At 2:11 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'd rather have a drink with Churchill. My favorite political quote is Churchills: "Madam, I may be drunk, but in the morning I will be sober, and you will still be ugly"

At 5:23 PM, Anonymous Arlington County Dem said...

Here's the view from someone who gets inside info from some Dem campaigns in NOVA:

You're highly underrating Werkheiser's chances. The local and state party couldn't be happier with Greg's campaign. Personally, I have never in my life seen a better run House campaign. Here's why:

1. Greg's been on the ground for a couple of years now. He coordinated with Kerry throughout 2004 and worked hard on the ground. Albo works hard on the ground as well, but he certainly doesn't have an advantage. Furthermore, Greg has a hardcore group of volunteers who have been working on the ground in the district and on the phones for him for over a year.
2. You dismiss fundraising as not as important as ground game. I agree. But digging through Greg's fundraising, you notice two things: (A) The state party insiders really think he's going to win this race - these are seasoned political veterans who aren't going to throw their money around to pointless races (B) a great deal of Republicans have given to Greg. There was a spat between Albo and some Republicans last GA session who he felt betrayed him - but honestly, he's not that popular amongst the moderate wing of the party. The right-wing thinks he's a RINO and the moderate wing thinks he's a right-winger. It's a precarious balance that he's counting on. This opens up a chance for Greg to pick up quite a few of those "Mark Warner republicans".
3. The issues are on Greg's side. Albo's child molester bill was an abomination. Not only did PROTECT get on Albo's case, but conservative Concerned Women for America and Stop Child Abuse Now joined in. This is what we call a "smoking gun" in these types of races. Furthermore, Albo's put in tons of bills that directly benefit his law firm. As a DUI defense lawyer (one of the most unpopular professions I can think of) he couldn't have thought of a worse conflict of interest to try to exploit in GA. One traffic lawyer insider said, "Dave writes the laws, then he exploits the loopholes to defend his clients."

Finally, I'd say this: Greg Werkheiser's charisma is the X factor here. He's a remarkable speaker, a nice guy, and most of all, a really funny guy. He's "telegenic" which is the straight male way of saying "good looking". Albo is also likeable, I'll give him credit for that. But he tends to lose his temper and say silly things.

I can understand your hesitancy to put this race high. Albo is a 12 year incumbent who hasn't been seriously challenged. But that's the key, isn't it? He hasn't been seriously challenged. No one has ever started 2 years early on the ground and fundraising, received so much money and support from both parties, and made all of the right choices. No one who ran before really had their heart in the race.

That's my perspective. We're all very impressed by what Greg's done in his race and look forward to great things from him in the future. I'll be volunteering some time down in Southern Fairfax myself, cause I see this as one of the top priorities for Democratic activists. Oh and Werkheiser's wife isn't borderline - she's a real super model (and very nice in person!

Keep up the good work on here.

At 8:46 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

arlington dem- thank you for posting that. I want to see a couple more things before making it a "lean Republican" but this race will move up next week on our top 10, no doubt. I'm really impressed with the number of people online willing to stick their necks out to say how much they like Greg (most candidates dont get that kind of support). Thanks for your kind comments about the site so far.

At 12:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I can understand part of the sound, but not really much of the fury.

I took a look at the same fundraising statistics as everyone to see where the money is coming from. Honestly, I am not seeing a groundswell of Republican support behind Greg. I do not see any Republican activists backing Greg and went I went through the list of donors the one or two party switchers I found tend to be the same people who claim they are Republican and then jump ship in every election.

In terms of the GA spat and few groups that cuffed Albo on the wrist, there is a big difference between not particularly liking someone and supporting one's opponent. I can think of about 5 or 6 delegates from both parties who are not particularly well liked by the rest of their party or interest group, yet can count on party support in the general election.

Thus, in terms of "other party support," I just believe this is either being overstated or manufactured. The real test is when someone prominent endorses someone from the other isle (i.e. such as when Colgan endorsed Harry Parrish). That hasn't happened and combined with a look at whos is donating makes me suspicous about these claims.

At 1:51 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

You guys are intent on kicking anyone out of your party who doesn't blindly follow your Grover Norquest litmus I guess you're right. Right-wingers haven't donated to Werkheiser - at least not as far as I can tell.

At 3:49 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

thanks annonymous. everyone seems to care about this race!

At 6:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

anonymous: If you're trying to contend that PROTECT or SCAN supports Delegate David Albo, then you must be taking crazy pills. The kind of recklessness displayed by him in the 2004 session can't even be described in words. The question arises: does he even read his own bills?

At 10:39 PM, Anonymous DebateDeanCook said...

The 42nd District has moved to the center due to demographic change. Kerry did very well in this district. Albo has moved from a moderate to the far right wing of his party, being a chief co-patron of the embarassing HB 751 (which banned couples of the same sex from CONTRACT rights) and opposing the mainstream tax reform bill that so many of his colleagues with far more conservative districts courageously supported. Werkheiser is going to win this seat.

At 10:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What did it go for Kerry by?

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