Update on 37th District (3rd Hottest)
Lots of developments here, most in the last 48 hours.
We are making our first outlook adjustments in any race.
Overall Outlook: Toss Up
Democratic Primary: Toss Up (Change from Likely Bulova)
Republican Primary: Likely Mason
Bulova v. Mason: Leans Republican (Change from Toss Up)
Bulova v. Kaplan: Leans Democratic (Change from Likely Democratic)
Oleszek v. Mason: Toss Up
Oleszek v. Kaplan: Likely Democratic
The readers of this site are observant enough to see we are giving David Bulova a major across the board downgrade. Bulova has dealt himself two setbacks, either one of which he could survive, but we doubt he can survive both.
Bulova has moved sharply to the left- to the left of California, Vermont or Connecticut even by endorsing gay marriage. No legislature in the country has passed gay marriage without a court order, and bans on it win in red and blue states alike. See the article here. Now, I know some people will say "opposing a ban on gay marriage is different from supporting it". I actually agree with that, but very few voters do, opposing a ban is the same thing as supporting in most people's minds. Keep in mind this was not opposition to Bob Marshall's HB751 that caused so much controversy. This was opposition to the ban on gay marriage that passed 79-17!
This may have been to try to keep up with Oleszek, a charming self described liberal who staked out the same position two weeks earlier. On this and other issues both are inviting a comparison they do not want with Delegate Chap Petersen. Close your eyes and imagine the November mail piece. Mason and his positions on the right. Bulova or Oleszek on the left. and Petersen in the middle with the same positions as Mason.
In Fairfax this may cut into the Democrats margin, but it won't kill your campaign on it's own. That's why while I question Oleszek's savvy in stressing this issue, I'm not downgrading her rating. So why is Bulova's going down?
Issue 2: A tin ear to Fairfax City.
As we discussed in the original analysis of this district, Fairfax City is very important. As a small jurisdiction with only one representative they view things different then Fairfax County voters. And Democrats are trying to overcome their historic losses in the City when a County Dem challenges a City Republican. Yet David Bulova seems to have turned a complete tin ear to this in his first mail piece.
With his mother as a Democratic Supervisor, it won't surprise you that a large majority of Fairfax County elected officials support his campaign. But what may surprise you is that Bulova has not gotten a single elected official in Fairfax City to support him (there are about 20). David took his county support and mailed it right into Fairfax City. My sources tell me that it was a major setback, reminding voters that he wasn't from the City, and didn't draw his support from there. If you think that sounds like a stupid issue- you don't know Fairfax City. A copy of this letter is on David's website.
With concerns already high about the City not having a Delegate or Senator resident for the first time since 1970 Bulova has really stepped into it. His campaign is far from over, but his days as the Democratic frontrunner are over, and he has made his fight in November much more uphill.