Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, April 22, 2005

Top 10 Hottest Races as of 4/21

Welcome to our new blog to keep everyone up to date on what is happening in the 2005 Virginia House of Delegates races. We hope both Democrats and Republicans will find this site to be fair. As time allows we will fill in more information on each of the top 10, followed by our "others to watch" list. Here's the opening list of the top 10.. We'll include detailed write ups of all 10, and will update through today and the weekend to finish that (please stay patient!)

The Opening Top Ten!

#1- 87th District- currently Paula Miller (D)
Outlook: Toss Up

#2- 52nd District- currently Jeff Frederick (R)
Outlook: Toss Up

#3- 37th District- currently Chap Petersen (D)
OPEN SEAT- Outlook: Toss Up

#4- 41st District- currently Jim Dillard (R)
OPEN SEAT- Outlook: Toss Up

#5- 35th District- currently Steve Shannon (D)
Outlook: Toss Up

#6- 26th District- currently Glenn Weatherholtz (R)
OPEN SEAT Outlook: Leans Republican

#7- 67th District- currently Gary Reese (R)
Outlook: Likely Republican

#8- 42nd District- currently Dave Albo (R)
Outlook: Likely Republican

#9- 99th District- currently Albert Pollard (D)
OPEN SEAT Outlook: Likely Republican PICKUP

#10- 32nd District- currently Dick Black (R)
Outlook: Likely Republican

As you can see 6 of the top 10 are Republican held. This is because Republicans got most seats they could in 2001, and are now playing a little defense. Other then the open D seats, the only D incumbents with elections currently worth mentioning are 1st term Delegates Miller and Shannon.
Winning all of the top 10 for Democrats would only cut the Republican majority in half. However, if the election were held today, Republicans would pick up one seat (99th) while 3 of the 5 tossups would be in Democratic held seats. In other words, a small Republican pickup is likely today, but we are still a long way out on these elections.
#3, #4, #5 and #8 all border each other along Rt. 123 in Central-South Fairfax County. Those races from the Prince William line, all the way to Tysons Corner will decide whether the Democrats pick up or lose seats statewide this cycle. Not many people will travel to help in all of these districts though, it's faster to get to Roanoke from Richmond then to get from Tysons to Lorton most weekdays!

23 Comments:

At 12:37 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Supriya Christopher who's running in Bob McDonnell's open seat deserves to be on this list at well. Her opponent is a relative unknown with weak credentials and she out raised him by close to $15K during the last filing period and is now even in cash-on-hand though he's been raising for more than a year. I know it's Virginia Beach but with her Navy ties she should convert some Rs.

 
At 12:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just checked out her website. Here's my advice to Supriya, GET SOME PICTURES AT THE BEACH! You're hot, and you live at the beach, get a two piece bathing suit on. That will get you more votes than "Navy ties". I would even contribute for that!

 
At 2:01 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I took a look- she is cute. Let me research the Dem performance there. It will obviously be tougher if McDonnell is the nominee for AG

 
At 2:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not Larry Sabato:

I'd advise you that Kerry won the 42nd district by 5 points last year. And look at the fundraising advantage that Werkheiser enjoys over Albo (10-1 last quarter).

 
At 3:22 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Here's where I'd disagree.

I'd put Chap's seat as leans republican. Chap waited too long ot announce and the dems are fighting.

I'd put Shannon's seat as leans dem. He's got way too much money to be beaten, and the repubs are fighting.

I'd put Werkheiser/Albo higher, cause of Albo's awful fundraising and some other amusing issues that I detail in the 42nd district post below. And don't discount moderate REpublican PACs in districts like this where moderate dems are running against anti-investment candidates...they're sure as hell not giving to Albo.

I'd put Fulk on the map. This guy is running as a true moderate. Witness his oped in support of Emmett Hanger.

I think Miller's going to have an easier time than you think. But with Kilgore on the ballot, it'll be tough. Her opponent is a really nice guy. He apparently came to her victory party and thanked her for the race.

Barg's been raising money well, but that's another tough one. The youthful energy of Frederick might carry the day.

Interesting site. I'm glad it's out there, even if I'd fine tune some of your picks. But who ever agrees with people's top 10 lists?

 
At 3:40 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Wahoo- I don't disagree on Chap or Steve's seat, but I have them as TossUps for now because we don't know enough yet about how things will break. Steve's really fell on the borderline for me, but I gave the Repubs the benefit of the doubt on that one. I would put Chap's as a Lean GOP if the Republicans had a stronger candidate. There are a lot of questions about Mason out there... and Kaplan does not look like he is dropping out.

Werkheiser on the other hand.... let's wait and see. I will change that rating if he continues pushing his momentum.

Also on Fulk, I did put him on the map. He's the dream candidate for Dems. In most other districts, including in rural Virginia, he walks away with a big win. This one is the most Republican of all though.

I'm working on a post for next week on the open seat races that are going to be decided in primaries, like Charlottesville. What are your thoughts on that race?

 
At 3:51 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Weeel. Cville seems to be the battle between the far lefties. It's hard to tell who's further to the left. Obviously, Toscano has to be the frontrunner....he's the only one who actually filed and raised a decent chunk of change. And he seems to have party support. And since he was the first candidate out of the gate, that helps him tremendously.

I like the property tax plan that Collins has put out, though. Read an excellent article by blogger Rick Sincere:

57th district

 
At 4:22 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Dude - this is a fun site. I like debating these races. Good work.

I can't wait until the blatant partisans drop by and start throwing out anonymous comments denegrating this guy or that guy. It's fun to see people throw their integrity out the window.

 
At 4:23 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

excuse me: "this guy or that girl"

 
At 5:58 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm looking forward to the annonymous bombs also. That's half the reason I set this up. Knowing Virginia, the operatives won't let us down. :)

 
At 9:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Check out Christopher's fundraising. She is neck and neck with him, in what is a pretty strong Republican district. Her back ground is a real plus, and she is an out standing speaker, I saw her at a VB breakfast event. She could be Virginia's version of Barak Obama.

 
At 5:42 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Last Annonymous- We are going to have to see that picture of Supriya Christopher in a bathing suit before we consider her top 10 material. :)

Seriously, valid points. We will include Supriya on next week's 2nd teer list. Those will include some of the races to monitor, but where there is not an immediate risk of an upset.

Our source at the Democratic Party/Caucus did tell yesterday that Christopher has hired some controversial staff members, and that has moved her down on their watch list. We'll look more into that later.

 
At 1:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I've heard the opposite. Supriya has an excellent manager. Your source at the party is either dumb or biased.

 
At 3:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You left off a great race. Check out Bruce the firefighter. Marshall Rule is Over!!!!

 
At 8:34 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Supriya fan(s)- I am working on a piece on your campaign for this week.

 
At 8:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What about Bruce? You won't cover him because he doesn't look as good in a bathing suit?

 
At 11:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Christopher is not going to win the McDonnell seat. The seat is very Republican, the GOP candidate is strongly tied into the community and has a good grassroots network with conservatives. She can outraise him, but she will not beat him.

As for the borderline communist firefighter running against Marshall...well...that is not going to fly...which is too bad since Marshall needs to go. But this leftist cannot get it done.

If Craddock wins in the Reese seat or if Golden is the nominee in the Dillard seat, GOPers lose both. Neither district is going to elect a winger.

 
At 11:03 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

annonymous- i totally disagree. Reese and Dillard district are both mainly represented and carried by Ken Cuccinelli. I'm not saying they (Golden and Craddock) WOULD win, but recent elections show they COULD.

 
At 6:18 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Not larry sabato: Cuccinelli runs in off-off years and motivates a base of really conservative supporters to carry the day. I don't think his wins really say much about that area of Fairfax.

 
At 10:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

These races will certainly be the focus in the fall, but what about the nomination contests that are happening in the next two months? I think you can find the most excitement inside the beltway in district 45. Six liberals are fighting to place retiring Delegate Van Landingham. Although others are threatening, Arlington School Board Chair Libby Garvey and former Air Force Officer David Englin seem to be the front runners. Since the winner in June will be the winner in June, the next 8 weeks will be very exciting in Old Town. Any one no have a hotter primary?

 
At 8:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Sal has such strong ties to the community why will Supriya out raise him? The truth is that in our "law" community Sal isn't very respected. He is a cookie cutter candidate, he thinks he has done everything to put him in place for this seat. People will see his true motives.

 
At 10:25 AM, Anonymous bruce said...

Albo Race - Wouldn't Tom Davis'
performance be a better indicator than Kerry's? After all, it's not like Dave caused the Iraq war (although Greg will try to prove it)

 
At 3:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Supriya is a go-getter. I know this much. If she puts her mind to something, she will get it!
She has all the qualities to be a good and effective politician.

 

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