Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, April 29, 2005

Safe Republican- 50th District

Primary Outlook: Safe Parrish

This district, while having a strong GOP tilt, is not a lost cause for Democrats. Major Democrats have taken a pass on running- betting on a primary win for the incumbent Harry Parrish. As with the Rollison v. Frederick primary, Democrats are taking a risk on this one. However factors indicate they are right this time.

The 2003 primary where Jeff Frederick defeated incumbent Jack Rollison next door to this district, is the model for conservative Republican challengers this June. As is happening statewide this year, 2003 saw Democratic and Republican primaries go head to head in Prince William, preventing heavy crossover voting. Frederick used the much more conservative electorate to upset Rollison. So why can't 2005 challenger Steve Chapman upset Parrish? A few factors are in play:

#1- An unappealing Democratic Primary in the 50th District.
This district is and was 10th district based. Other than the hardcore activists, the names Chap Petersen and Leslie Byrne mean nothing to voters in the 50th. As the Lt. Governor Primary is the only Democratic Primary on the ballot that means low turnout in the 50th.... Lessening the impact on Parrish.

#2- A very appealing high profile Republican Primary in the 50th District.
Parrish won't be bringing out the moderates on his own. Sean Connaughton has a lot at stake in winning Prince William big. Since the activists won't give him that victory he will require bringing a large turnout of his own. Connaughton will win the 50th district over Bolling. Does anyone think there will be very many Connaughton/Steve Chapman voters? We don't. Also, there are plenty of conservatives who may be tempted to vote for Bolling who will also vote for Parrish.

This one is Parrish in a walk, despite the fact most Republican activists don't like it. Heck, Steve Chapman even got "Republican of the year" by Prince William GOPers in a slap at Parrish.

In the end, while there will be upsets of moderate Republican incumbents this year in primaries, this won't be one of them.


At 9:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There will be no upsets. VCAP goes 0 for 5 in the primaries. Only Michael Golden wins, but that's a general

At 10:21 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

We'll see. I'm calling some pretty close, as you can see this weekend.

At 1:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I disagree. VCAP will go 3 of 5.

At 1:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And that doesn't count the checks i get on my wanted poster for the retirements.

At 6:20 PM, Anonymous Pro Lifers Suck said...

You're going to lose every primary choice v. life


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