Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Tuesday, April 26, 2005

Safe Democratic Seats- 45th District

45th District
Outlook: Toss Up- Leans Garvey or Englin

The 45th district is an odd district, stretching from Arlington, through Alexandria and into Mt. Vernon. About 70% lies in Alexandria, 20% in Fairfax and 10% in Arlington. The incumbent, Marian Van Landingham is retiring after over 20 years.

5 major Democratic candidates have a shot at this seat.

Elsie Mosqueda is the Richmond candidate, and has been endorsed by the Delegate next door, Brian Moran.

Elsie's strength- legislative experience in Moran's office.

Elsie's weakness - no one cares.

Libby Garvey is a member of the Arlington School Board.

Libby's strength- the "Education" candidate and her elected experience. Has Arlington to herself.

Libby's weakness- Her supporters. Most Alexandria Dems will privately admit they don't want a Delegate from Arlington- especially one as tied in with the Arlington establishment.

Laura Mandala is a community activist in Alexandria.

Laura's strength- Her boyfriend can write one check that doubles the money raised of everyone else running.

Laura's weakness- People are noticing that the campaign is lacking in strategy. Also quoted in paper with top two issues of "human and animal rights". 'Nuff said.

David Englin is a former military officer from Alexandria

David's strength- Young and articulate, and trying to position himself as the most progressive. He is drawing a lot of support from people he met while trying to oust Jim Moran last year.

David's weakness- He is drawing a lot of support from people he met while trying to oust Jim Moran last year. Might be good enough for a plurality this year- but not a lasting majority where Jim at the height of his controversy can draw 60%+ in primaries and general elections. If he wins this primary he is the most likely to not be able to hold the seat in a primary in two years.

Dick Hobson was Delegate for this district in the 1970's.

Dick's strength: "seniority" from having served before. However, previous service in Richmond only means you start at the top of the freshman class. Ask Jim Shuler of Blacksburg who lost all his seniority for being out of the house for a few days during the redistricting mess.

Dick's weakness: Sometimes he gets confused and claims to be Alan Diamonstein.

In the end any of these 5 candidates could win the primary. My money would be on Garvey who has an area of the district and an issue to herself, or Englin who will win a 5 candidate field if he unites the anti-Moran voters.

23 Comments:

At 7:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Animal Rights? What the Fuck!?!

 
At 9:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

People should not have sex with animals.

 
At 9:31 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Anonymous: I feel very strongly about that as well.

 
At 9:33 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

I'm not so sure they'll unseat Englin if he wins. After somebody wins a primary like this, people usually all settle down, rally around the winner, and wait 20 years for him or her to die.

Englin's campaign plan contains lots of promises to do party building. This is obviously the sort of thing that will endear him amongst the party faithful, who will, in turn, not run anyone against him.

 
At 9:52 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'm saying if Englin continues this anti Moran stuff- and wins with less than 50% with that coalition, that Moran will make sure he's done in two years. He's walking a very fine line here. Remember- this is all in the 8th- and he is running in Moran's strongest areas.

 
At 10:53 AM, Anonymous Wahooo Demm said...

annonymous- i don't question yourlifestyle. dont question mine.

 
At 11:04 AM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

Thanks for a great blog focusing on these important down ticket races.

Just want to clear up a misconception - and I'd urge your readers to check out the website (www.DavidEnglin.org) and get in touch with David at 703-549-3203 to push back on this. Jim Moran has absolutley nothing to do with this race - we have supporters who were/are strongly anti-Moran, and we have supporters who were/are part of Moran's inner circle.

David and Jim have sat down over coffee to discuss the 04 Primary, David has made clear to his supporters - of all stripes - that this is a race about the future, about affordable housing, education, health care that is accessible and doesn't bankrupt families or small businesses, protecting the rights of all Virginians, and working for a more equitable distribution of NoVa's resources.

David is the only candidate in the race who has released a comprehensive policy agenda. He's the only candidate in the race who is running a full-on grassroots campaign.

I'd urge anyone reading this to come on by Campaign Central any night of the week to meet our volunteers - who range in age from 15 to mid-80s - and see that this is about this race, and none other.

 
At 11:32 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Thanks for posting Ms. Englin. Sources tell us it is still a major topic of discussion with activists, and that a lot of David's signs have shown up in yards from the Rosenberg campaign. I'm sure you don't want it as an issue- but I would submit to you that it is. However, as we said, we still think your husband is one of the frontrunners.

 
At 11:33 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

In fact, I would submit to you that if David had not supported Rosenberg, and still had this number of backers, that he would easily be the nominee.

 
At 1:26 PM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

Not Larry - yes, people are discussing it, and yes, it's definitely an issue. For better and for worse Jim's a polarizing figure, and he's been around for long enough that he permeates the politics here. That said, we're not running a pro- or anti-Moran campaign. We're talking to every voter that comes to their door or answers their phone - without respect to who they supported in any of the last congressional primaries. I'm sure people who supported Andy have our yard signs up -- and so do people who supported Jim. Our hardcore volunteers include people who worked hard against Jim, and people who worked hard for him. Marsha Woods, one of our true regulars -- you'd be hard pressed to come by here or one of our campaign events and not meet her -- dedicated hours and hours to reelecting Jim. The barbershop down the street is posting Englin signs proudly -- and only just recently took down their Moran signs.

It's in Elsie's and Libby's interest to perpetuate the whisper campaign on this - goodness knows they're not matching us on the ground - so it'll persist. But it's important that anyone who cares to dig into the facts knows the true story.

Incidentally, I agree. If this race were going to be decided on the merits - of the candidate and the campaign - rather than on extraneous stuff like who David did or did not support in the completely unrelated congressional primary, David would be a shoo-in.

 
At 2:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Moran people made a mistake my letting Elsie run. With her out Garvey wins. With her in Englin wins.

 
At 3:14 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Thanks Ms. Englin, it's very nice of you to clear the air here. Check back here tomorrow, I have a story I am working on for the 45th that will be a "world exclusive". Not that we are getting a lot of competition. :)

 
At 4:32 PM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

Wow - a "world exclusive"!?!?! Looking forward to it.

 
At 5:07 PM, Blogger Maura in VA said...

Hey, you missed the 6th candidate in the race - Jim Lay. I have a link to a site with candidate petitions and links to all six candidates' Web sites on a post right now at DFV:

http://www.democracyforvirginia.com

It was interesting to meet all of them last night!

 
At 8:21 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Thanks Maura. I saw on your blog that you would be posting a write up on what you thought. Would you please cross post here so we can keep this as a good reference. God Bless,

NotLarrySabato

 
At 6:24 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

World Exclusive on the 45th. Coming in 30 minutes. :)

 
At 9:58 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Woah, Woah, Woah, NLS, you ain't the pope. He was here 2 days ago.

 
At 10:11 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Wahoo- What did you think of the "world exclusive"?

 
At 10:45 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Nice work. I'm still a bit freaked out by the boyfriend donation. It's just...weird...

 
At 4:49 PM, Anonymous WOMENFIRST said...

Why the hell is it that men like David Englin always run for seats held by women. WE NEED MORE WOMEN- NOT LESS.

 
At 12:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually, Moran was held under 60%. He did not win with "60+"

Nice blog. Keep it up!

--Sam Penney
(David Englin supporter)
http://www.RaisingKaine.com

 
At 1:07 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Sam- 60%+ in that district.

 
At 2:29 PM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

WOMENFIRST: I'd submit that what we need is more principled, hardworking, intelligent, and accountable legislators, period - regardless of gender.

I'd hate to know that I'd been chosen for something specifically because I'm a woman -- I can earn what I want on the merits of my qualifications, intellect, work ethic, and principles, thank you very much. Therefore, I'd never choose anyone for anything specifically on the basis of gender - not for a job, not as a friend, and certainly not as my representative and the person to lead my district into the future that my son is going to have to live in.

If all things are exactly equal among candidates, then yes, I'd choose the woman. But in the 45th, all things are not equal. David's the only candidate who's released a detailed agenda with his policy positions clearly laid out and with new ideas for addressing problems in the Commonwealth. David's the only candidate with a personal stake in the future of our public schools, as he's the only candidate with a child currently in the public schools. (Arguably, one of the other male candidates in the race also has a personal stake in it - but he's not said whether his young children will attend public or private school. All of the other candidates either don't have children or have children who are long out of the school system.) David's also the only candidate doing the hard work to build the party so that the policies and principles we care about can actually go anywhere - until we change the math in the GA it's going to be an uphill battle.

 

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