Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Thursday, April 28, 2005

Breaking News- 74th and 45th- Targeting Changes Results

Two major stories breaking today that bring a rating change.

First of all, the 45th. Our good GOP source in Alexandria tells us that her roommates have started getting Englin for Delegate mail, including a piece yesterday about "not getting our fair share"....

Well our GOP source has a voter file and points out no one receiving this mail has ever voted in a Democratic Primary. What a waste of money by the Englin campaign! This will be a very low turnout election and very few voters will show up for their first ever primary (unless they personally know a candidate)

As my GOP source said: "My roommates are all single women, under 30. No Dem primary vote history. They are hedging their bets that they are all liberal prochoice sexpots undoubtedly."

My Fairfax Democratic source tells me that Garvey has been very open about her targeting. It seems to be very sound, and well thought out. As such we are changing the rating of the 45th to:

45th District: Toss Up. Leans Garvey or Englin. Slight lean to Garvey between them. Candidate to watch: Mandala.

Now the 74th District:

This morning, for once, the Richmond Times-Dispatch breaks a story over Not Larry Sabato. Delegates decide party foes running in primaries cannot access valuable information

By Tyler Whitley
Times-Dispatch Staff Writer

The Democratic Party of Virginia is denying its voter file to challengers to its incumbents running for re-election to the House of Delegates in a June 14 primary.

Kevin Griffis, a state party spokesman, said the House Democratic Caucus asked that the voter file not be sold to challengers.

The file includes information such as past voting patterns and interest exhibited through volunteer efforts and phone bank calls. A list of potential Democratic voters in a Democratic primary could be useful to candidates.

Two challengers will be affected: A. Donald McEachin of Henrico, a former House member, and Keela Boose-Jackson of Norfolk.

McEachin is challenging Del. Floyd H. Miles Sr. of Charles City in the 74th District. Boose-Jackson is running against Del. Algie T. Howell Jr. of Norfolk in the 90th District.

McEachin said yesterday that he was "disappointed. I am a former member of the caucus, a former statewide candidate for the party and have donated thousands of dollars to the Democratic Party."

Moreover, McEachin said he helped build the voter file as a member of the caucus.

McEachin was the losing Democratic candidate for attorney general in 2001. He represented the 74th from 1996 to 2002. Miles succeeded him.

Paul Goldman, an advisor to McEachin, cried foul yesterday.

"We want a level playing field," he said. "The party is not a club. That's the way the old Byrd organization operated."

Del. Brian J. Moran, D-Alexandria, the House caucus chairman, said the caucus decided during the General Assembly session to protect its incumbents.

"They pay dues to the caucus; it makes no sense to assist someone in trying to unseat them," he said.

The caucus regards McEachin, a former member, as a friend, he said, but the caucus adopted a policy to be applied uniformly to all challengers, Moran said.

The state party is providing the voter file to all candidates running for open seats, Griffis said. There are five open seats.

Griffis noted that Gov. Mark R. Warner is backing Miles. It would be self-defeating for the party to try to help someone whom Warner opposes, he said.

He said he understood McEachin's disappointment, but "I wonder what his feelings would be if the roles were reversed."

The Republican Party of Virginia, meanwhile, is making its voter files available to all GOP House candidates.

Some Republican leaders, however, would like to see incumbents who backed tax increases last year defeated. Six of the incumbents are being challenged by anti-tax-increase candidates.

Voting records can be bought from the State Board of Elections, but they are not as detailed, said Jean R. Jensen, board secretary. McEachin said his campaign would "adapt" and build its own voter file.

Jensen said voter lists from the state range in cost from a few hundred dollars for some House districts to as much as $7,000 for a statewide race. Democrats declined to say how much they would charge, but said the cost would be higher than the state board's because of additional detail in the party's lists.


This is a major development, and one that will hamper the McEachin campaign. We are changing our rating.

74th District:
Old Rating: Leans McEachin
New Rating: Toss Up

We don't rate internal squabbles normally, but this development breaks both ways... so...

Democratic Party Executive Director Job Security
Old Rating: Strong
New Rating: Toss Up

Not Larry Sabato may have to go out of town today... when I return the news on the GOP primaries.

34 Comments:

At 10:30 AM, Anonymous Mosqueda4Del said...

How about some mention of the surging Mosqueda campaign.

 
At 10:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

who?

 
At 11:19 AM, Anonymous anonymous said...

Now that there is part of Fairfax in the 45th district, my only question is which candidate is going to "Put Fairfax First"?

 
At 11:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ABBB

Anyone but Bitch Byrne

 
At 12:33 PM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

Well, Larry, we shall see. As compelling as your GOP contact's sample size of three is, I submit that you don't have the full story. And I also submit that any campaign that's "completely open" about their targeting strategy is either lying or giving away more than they should.

Reminds me of the SNL skit from while back. At a press conference with a general, a reporter asks, "Where are your troops and can I count them?"

 
At 12:33 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

ABBB: it's clear that you're a GOP hack on here trying to stir up sympathy votes for Byrne. Please go away

 
At 12:35 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

NLS - I'm not buying this story either. Sometimes old or outdated voter files have wrong information...it happens all the time. Sometimes Republicans get Democratic pieces...it happens.

I know you're trying to base this site on gossip (which is both admirable and amusing) but this doesn't quite merit a regrading of this race.

 
At 1:22 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

First of all the main reason this got to be a story was the amazingly good quote I got from my GOP source. C'mon everyone had to like that!

In all seriousness, I don't understand why anyone would be on the list who was never voted in a D primary. In that district the D primary list is MASSIVE, and a great place to go. The D primary list is more in the 45th, then all voters in the typical VA Beach House District in 2003.

 
At 1:28 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

And Wahoo- Virginia Democrats have a 2 million dollar voter file built by Mark Warner. It is neither outdated nor old. If the Englin campaign is using it, these voters would not get this piece. My source in the Deeds campaign just looked them up- and told me they are listed as R+. More on that strategy later......

 
At 1:32 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

And while I'm at it- A 2 million Dollar Voter File- that all of Don McEachin's 2001 ID's are in- that he is not allowed to use- but his opponent can have. LOL!

 
At 2:01 PM, Blogger Pastor John said...

i'm back. come to my blog and help fight evil

 
At 2:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Pastor John: It's all pink on the inside.

 
At 3:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NotLarrySabato- I agree with you 100% on this race. McEachin may lose because of this move. And his henchwoman Abbi Easter may move to fire the executive director for it. This will be very exciting to watch.

 
At 4:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who wants to help me start www.firelindseyreynolds.com

 
At 4:51 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Im a neighbor of the Englin's- Please get an office. You have too many volunteers clogging our neighborhood. Put Del Ray First and get some office space.

 
At 4:52 PM, Blogger Pastor John said...

please take this blog down. it's no longer needed. i have my own.
http://virginiarepublican.blogspot.com

 
At 5:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lindsay used to be hot

ABBB!!!!!!!!

 
At 8:43 PM, Blogger Danny said...

I used to work for Lindsey Reynolds, she is a capable and very talented Executive Director. During my tenure at the Democratic Party of Virginia I worked under 4 Executive Directors, and out of all of them Lindsey was by far the best. To blame her for something that the Democratic Caucus is doing is ridiculous. The caucus is trying to save itself from egotistical candidates like McEachin, by protecting their own. Unlike my conservative friends, the Democrats do not eat their own, and will support our incumbents. Lindsey Reynolds is not to blame, our elected members are!

 
At 9:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bullshit Danny. Lindsey is in charge of the voter file, not the caucus. If she chooses to abuse that, then there will be a motion to fire her in June. She can step in and tell the caucus to endorse with their own resources- but not the party's. There is a difference.

www.firelindseyreynolds.com
coming soon

 
At 12:05 AM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

Hello there, neighbor. I apologize for any inconvenience! An office isn't in the cards - with just over six weeks to go there just isn't enough time. But stop by and let us know where our hoardes of volunteers have been getting in your way and we'll see what we can do.

We've always prided ourselves on being good neighbors. I know having so many people in and out must be annoying. We're doing our best to minimize the impact and are definitely open to suggestions for how we can make things easier on you.

 
At 6:59 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Shayna- I'm a voter in the 45th. While a lot of things about David trouble me..... like the Moran thing.... you are so nice and sweet and open, I am going to give your husband a chance on June 14th and vote for him. For the record though, I agree with the comment made a few days ago- I won't vote for him in two years if he uses the office to not support our Congressman in 2006. For now, I will take you at your word, and vote for your husband because of the good influence he has at home.

 
At 9:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NO!!!! IF YOU ARE A JIM MORAN SUPPORTER YOU MUST VOTE FOR ELSIE. THE MORANS ORDER IT!!!!

 
At 10:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

as long as it's not Byrne!

 
At 11:36 AM, Anonymous Harry said...

WHen I was working on Jim Gilmore's campaign- we had hired a company to lit drop all of Henrico County. They must have hired from the Homeless Shelter- because we got calls about people doing out lit drop going through trash, and then peeing on a lawn!! Englin Neighbor- It could be a lot worse. Trust me.

 
At 4:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hear Lindsey the bitch was working on her resume today. BYE BYE BITCH!

 
At 5:40 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Whoever is calling Leslie Byrne and Lindsey Reynolds a bitch, please stop. Thank You.

 
At 10:47 AM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

 
At 10:50 AM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

To the voter in the 45th: thank you! Your support of David means a great deal, and I do appreciate your kind words about me. We're a team - it's gratifying to know that it translates. I hope you'll stop by Campaign Central so we can meet in person.

 
At 10:52 AM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

Larry - I've been scouring the voter file for the "prochoice liberal sexpot" tag for use in future targeting. Sadly, didn't turn it up. Maybe your GOP source can help? :-)

 
At 3:43 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I agree. If I had a wives category, Ms Englin is rated #1 for this cycle!

 
At 10:22 PM, Anonymous Ben said...

Eh, I wish the voter file was open, but it's not LR's fault. She is supposed to follow the caucus, not tell them to f^# off. However, I think the Democratic Caucus is pathetic for voting to protect themselves. I have an idea for them- Shut Up- And Start Winning Elections.

 
At 1:05 AM, Blogger David Englin said...

Not Larry and Readers,

I just wanted to post a quick note to thank you for staying on top of things in the 45th. You're covering this race -- and I suspect many others -- with more diligent attention than the traditional media, and it's a real service to the voters. (Even if your concerns about our targeting are a bit off! You'll just have to trust us on this one until the votes are counted.)

Also, thank you all for your kind words about Shayna. She's always been #1 in my book, so I'm not surprised that she has fans in cyberspace.

Best,

David

 
At 7:00 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Thanks David! I hear posting on this blog is good luck for candidates. :)

 
At 11:57 PM, Blogger David Englin said...

Let's hope so! We're working our tails off and running the best campaign we can, but I'll take whatever luck we can get.

 

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