Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, April 22, 2005

#6 of the Top 10

#6
#6- 26th District- incumbent, Glenn Weatherholtz (R), all of Harrisonburg City, parts of Rockingham County

Outlook: Leans Republican

With Delegate Weatherholtz retiring the Democrats sense an opportunity. They have drafted their dream candidate, Lowell Fulk, a farmer, school board member and conservative Democrat. The Republicans top candidate, Weatherholtz aide John Elledge decided not to run, and the Republicans had to scramble to find Matt Lohr, another local school board member to run.

But this election still leans Republican. Rockingham County is one of the most Republican counties in Virginia. Jerry Kilgore could carry this district with 60% or more. With any other candidate Democrats would already be finished here. With Fulk, this race is worth watching. Fulk will need at least 2,500 Kilgore Republicans to cross over and vote for him, and we'll be waiting to see if he is making progress towards that.

16 Comments:

At 12:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

A breakdown of the 26th House race is not complete unless you mention a few things. I'm sure these are to come later as you further break these races down but I'm going to go ahead and post a few comments now:

First, you didn't mention that Fulk ran VERY strong against Weatherholtz in 2003. In fact, Fulk was the first Democrat in a very very long time to actually win the City of Harrisonburg.

In 2003 Fulk was the second closest Democratic challenger statewide to not win. He got something like 45.4% of the vote. (Phil Forgit in Williamsburg got 45.7% against Melanie Rapp) Ever since that election Fulk has reorganized and re-energized the local party and is heading into this election cycle having campaigned continuously since 2003.

In 2003, every member of the Rockingham County School Board supported Fulk against Weatherholtz. In 2003 Lohr was a member of the Rock. Co. School Board...

Will Tim Kaine win this district? Probably not-- but will Lowell Fulk? Probably. I'd adjust your ratings and rate this at least a toss-up but definitely not leaning Republican.

 
At 2:03 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I agree with all of that. I just want to see Lowell run a strong campaign before we call the most GOP Delegate district in the state a "toss up". By the way, I saw the website for his opponent's company- not impressed.

 
At 4:30 PM, Anonymous Wahoo DAn said...

Fulk is SICK (in a good way) and I'll tell you why:

He gave out "The Amazing Fulk" t-shirts at his announcement. That should win him some votes by itself with the youngsters.

 
At 4:31 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Excuse me: "The Incredible Fulk". I'm sooooo not a comic book reader.

 
At 12:57 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I'll endorse him on here if I can get one of those T-Shirts. Medium Please. :)

 
At 1:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hear the nickname came out like this:

Last campaign a reporter was at their house. Lowell's wife didn't know it and was talking about the night before. She called him "An Incredible...." well... anyway.... the reporter heard that and it became a campaign joke that he was the "Incredible Fulk"

 
At 8:41 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

With all the uncalled for comments on this site- that one takes the cake. Congrats annonymous.

 
At 12:34 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dear Not Larry Sabato,

Great blog!

I'm sure that the Fulk folks would love to send you a shirt.
The campaign email is:

Victory05@lowellfulk.com

Or you can visit the site:

www.lowellfulk.com

and click the mail link.

Let them know where to send.

The shirts actually say "The Credible Fulk" but they are green and they are very popular with both the young and young at heart.

You see them everywhere.

I've also noticed "Republicans for Fulk" bumper stickers on quite a few cars. Another nice touch.

Anyway, keep up the great work and thank you for such an informative and upbeat site. :o)

 
At 1:15 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Thanks! I hope they save me one so I can get it after the election. I want to be annonymous until then.

The shirts saying "Credible Fulk" actually makes that post about his wife even funnier.... :)

 
At 2:57 PM, Anonymous Why Lowell is a LOSER said...

Sharing office with Kaine in H'burg. He'll regret that in Nov.

 
At 12:06 AM, Anonymous nelson said...

I've watched both Fulk and Lohr grow up, and I can tell you that there is a world of difference between these two young men. Fulk will bust his behind to get the work done, and Lohr will bust his to get in front of a camera.
I don't even know if the Lohr boy has ever even been dirty. I've seen Fulk overhauling diesel engines and loading manure and filling silo. I've also observed Fulk being both a father and a son. One man is a farmer, and the other one just lives on a farm. One hell of a difference!
I don't know however if I would wish politics on Fulk, he's too good of a man. Lohr just fits in with the other politicians.

 
At 4:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I love listening to Valley Talk. Great post.

 
At 2:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I see lots of wishful thinking by the Fulk folks, but it aint happening. 1. Most GOP district in Virginia. 2. Statewide election in which Lohr's teammate cleans Kaine's clock in the Valley. 3. Fulk had no record 2 years ago; now he does -- a liberal one. 4. Fulk led the local campaign for Kerry last year. 5. Fulk lost last time by 10%. Really, it wasn't very close.
Lohr wins.

 
At 10:56 PM, Anonymous Patti said...

Last Anon,

You know you're right. It wasn't close at all. I guess we should just give up, right? This is soooo cool! See you in November!

 
At 10:41 PM, Anonymous 12:35 PM said...

Mark Warner got 47.7% in Harrisonburg. Lowell Fulk won Harrisonburg by 8 votes. Fulk also did signifcantly better than Mark Warner in Rockingham County. Weatherholtz beat Fulk by 1100 votes and he was an incumbent. If anything, I would argue that Fulk enjoys incumbent like name recognition over Lohr.

One aspect that was absent in 2003 is that this race is not the top of the ticket. In 2003 voters came out to vote for either Weatherholtz or Fulk. This year, voters will be turning out to vote for Kilgore or Kaine and I would argue that in this district-- even though it is strong Republican-- Kilgore will not motivate voters the way that Tim Kaine does. Kilgore does not appeal to Valley voters. Valley legislators (Landes, Saxman, Cline, Obenschain) may appear to be similar to Kilgore but it is only because in safe seats you see more extreme candidates. I would argue that Tim Kaine will have a positive effect for Fulk and Kilgore will have a null effect for Lohr.

Another aspect of this election that is a result of the top of the ticket race is the role that JMU students may play. In 2004, a coalition of organizations led by JMU SGA, partnering with Virginia 21, helped over 4,000 students vote. That's over 1/4 of the student population. Granted, there won't be that many this year, however Tim Kaine is very strong on higher education issues and I would expect to see student leaders once again become very active in moving voters to the polls. The question is how many will register in Harrisonburg. Fulk does not need a huge margin from JMU students for them to have an impact on this race.

One final note: Tim Kaine and Lowell Fulk are both REAL. They are both honest, hard working, and true to their roots. They are in public service because they want to help people. Jerry Kilgore and Matt Lohr are slick politicians to whom appearance is everything. One needs only to look to the fact that Jerry Kilgore didn't even fulfill his term as Attorney General as Tim Kaine is doing as Lieutenant Governor and Matt Lohr pretends to be a farmer where as with Lowell Fulk there is no pretense.

 
At 4:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You're wrong about this race being on top of the ticket. In 2003, there were State Senate and County Sheriff races, both of which were above Fulk on the ballot.

Fulk did win the City by eight votes, largely because he had a massive door to door effort that concentrated on Harrisonburg.

You're also wrong about Fulk not being a politician..whether or not he is or isn't a farmer or has or hasn't gotten dirty, he's spent the past two years in constant campaign mode.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home