Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Wednesday, April 27, 2005

45th District Update.

Sorry to post this one day after our story, but we have some breaking developments in the 45th.

One of the problems with TV advertising (and why were taking Mandala less seriously for doing it) is that you pay for a lot of people to see the ad who can not vote for you. It can be a real waste of money in a small district.

Well a well placed source has brought a few things to our attention.

#1- A special cable rate for the following zip codes only:
22301,22302,22304,22305,22311,22314(Alexandria); 22206, 22211 (Arlington), and 22312 (Fairfax).

That is not an exact match to the 45th district, but it's pretty darn close.

With 150 ads being the saturation point in this area (when professionals will tell you that diminishing returns begin) and a 15 second spot will run about $30 during the best parts of the day. So Mandala is only spending about $4500 per week on these ads, or about $30,000 until the election.

Since Mandala has twice that on hand, we can assume she will be doing many other means of voter contact. Our well placed source tells us that her boyfriend is not done writing checks yet. ($57,000 so far). They plan to spend whatever it takes to win. It's safe to assume when voters go to vote they will know the name Laura Mandala more than any other.

Now to the most important information.

Our well placed source tells us that Mandala has inquired about 15, 30 and 45 second spots in the last 3 weeks. According to our source, 15 second attack ads are being planned for Englin, Garvey and Mosqueda. Depending on strategy as we get closer, Mandala is prepared to make an additional TV ad buy attacking whoever she feels is still in front of her. The 15 second ads would run back to back to back if she decided to use all 3 together.

With Mandala ready to outspend the field and to do whatever it takes to win- we are changing the outlook of this race. We'll now call it:

Toss Up: Leans Garvey or Englin. Candidate to watch: Mandala

31 Comments:

At 9:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NICE JOB LARRY!

 
At 9:40 AM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

Well, this will be a real test of whether you actually have to earn a seat in the VA HoD, or whether it really is possible to rent an apartment in a district you don't live in and get your boyfriend to buy the seat for you. It'll be interesting to see if she continues to refer to herself as a feminist after this race...

It's also a great test of the theory behind VA's campaign finance laws - that transparency leads to accountability.

Incidentally, an aside from this perhaps best-placed source: Ms. Mandala's not the only candidate with untapped resources.

 
At 9:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

TV Ads are cool. Don't diss it, just cause you can't do it.

 
At 10:08 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Shayna- Maybe David's girlfriend will chip in 50G for TV ads! :) Just Kidding.

 
At 10:10 AM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

EXACTLY! How'd you guess which untapped resources I was referring to? :-)

 
At 10:23 AM, Blogger Pope Benedict XVI said...

Bless you, again.

 
At 10:29 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Men don't have affairs with wives that look as good as ms. englin. I requested a Supriya Christopher (VA Beach) bathing suit picture last week- did not get that. How about Ms. Englin?

 
At 10:53 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Not Larry Sabato - I saw that you requested another blessing, and the pope provided.

I am truly moved.

 
At 10:54 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Shayna:

It's refreshing to see candidates/candidates wives on blogs. I wish we had more of that.

 
At 10:58 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I was thinking about asking him to make endorsments. What do you think?

 
At 11:52 AM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

On the bathing suit issue: not gonna happen. But thanks for asking.

 
At 3:16 PM, Anonymous Pastor John said...

You are wicked, 45th district communists. you heed the call of the homosexual agenda, the welfare queens, and the smut peddlers. The devil be with you.

 
At 4:14 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Pastor John: I prefered the Pope. He was so polite!

 
At 4:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

ABB!!!!!!!

Anyone But Byrne!

 
At 5:11 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Pastor John is the first person on this blog that I do not like. :0

 
At 6:06 PM, Blogger Shayna Englin said...

I'm not awfully fond of the person who insists on putting the "ABB" announcement on every thread...

 
At 6:21 PM, Anonymous Pastor John said...

leslie byrne is the same as the rest of the communcrats with their tax raising and homosexual supporting ways. god-fearing republicans shall rue the day. we've already captured the white house and the congress. while you hold a 6-3 advantage in the courts, we'll soon have those as well.

 
At 8:27 PM, Anonymous wahoo dan said...

I don't think Pastor John is a real pastor.

 
At 9:03 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

He's all over the blogs today. I don't think it is a pastor either. I get the Cuccinelli compass- it sounds like Ken.

 
At 9:04 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Shayna- I agree. I told them to take it to another blog.

 
At 9:19 PM, Anonymous Senator Ken Coochie-coo-chie-coo-chinelli said...

Pastor John is a liberal compared to me!

 
At 9:38 PM, Anonymous Robert F Kennedy said...

"Each time a man stands up for an ideal, or acts to improve the lot of others, or strikes out against injustice, he sends forth a tiny ripple of hope, and crossing each other from a million different centers of energy and daring, those ripples build a current which can sweep down the mightiest walls of oppression and resistance."

I'm for the Ripple of Hope candidate in the 45th!

 
At 11:03 PM, Blogger Jamie Dawn said...

Blessings from the Pope! Wow! You must be really special. Isn't the Pope's blog cool? What a guy.

 
At 8:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not being a resident of the 45th district (but a David Englin supporter) I find it interesting that Mandala has spent the time and money to put up signs in my district, especially right by Brian Moran's law office. (and on the private property of a local restaurant owner, but we won't go into that now)

The thinking may be to catch the attention of those traveling to the 45th, but it still strikes me as a bit...superfluous.

 
At 1:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Laura Mandala's signs are being put out by her supporters...people who believe in her candidacy. It was their decision and right to place these signs where they did...and they did so abiding by the ordinance governing campaign sign placement. I happen to know that the sign at the restaurant was placed there at the business owner's request.

Laura's signs are being placed honestly, legally and with a great deal of thoughfulness and respect for the voters, the citizenry and law. You should apologize for suggesting otherwise.

 
At 2:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It'd be neat if any of Money Mandala's signs actually turned up on any supporters' lawns instead of exclusively in right-of-ways...but then, that would require she actually have supporters.

Wonder how those robocalls went for her? And how big a fine she's going to pay for the poll she did that didn't follow the disclosure laws? At $2,500 per incident, that snafu could eat up a whole lotta boyfriend's dough...

 
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