Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, April 22, 2005

#3 of the Top 10

#3

37th District, incumbent Chap Petersen (D), all of Fairfax City, parts of Fairfax County

Outlook: Toss Up

The district that hosted 2001's most exciting campaign looked like it was headed for a boring one this year. With Chap Petersen leaving the seat open to run for Lt. Governor, the seat in the heart of Fairfax was open. The top two Democratic recruits were in both residents of the district for over 30 years, David Bulova (D), son of the popular local Supervisor Sharon Bulova (D) and Fairfax County School Board Member Janet Oleszek (D), 2003's biggest vote getter at large for the School Board. The Republicans were left with a candidate who just moved to the district, Jim Kaplan (R), who's community service was so slim that he listed "parents of multiples" (twins) as one of his community involvements that qualified him for the House of Delegates. But the Democrats parade to Richmond halted the day of the filing deadline, when former Fairfax City Mayor John Mason (R), jumped into the contest.

This district is always one of the close ones in statewide contests. We're rating it as a Toss Up for now, because there are many factors that will play into this race that we don't yet know enough about. They are:

#1- Will the Democratic Nominee have popular Delegate Petersen on the ballot with them in November (unlikely, but a potential boost to the Democratic Nominee).

#2- Will Fairfax City continue it's tradition of crushing Democratic nominees from outside the City, when their opponent is from the City? Under that scenario the string of losses for Democrats inside the City is long and unbroken.. from Emilie Miller in 3 Senate elections in 83, 87, and 91, Sally Ormsby in 87 and 89 for Delegate, Les Schoene in 97 for Delegate and Leslie Byrne in 99 for Senate. In all of these elections where the Republicans had a City candidate, and the Democrats did not, Republicans won the City by more than 2-1 (remarkable in an otherwise evenly divided area). Republicans used that margin to win every Delegate race above, but in the Senate contests where the City is only 10% of the district Democrats Miller and Byrne both won once.

#3- How will #1 effect #2? Would the City split it's votes between Petersen and Mason, or would Petersen have coattails? The likely answer is coattails, looking at the 2003 elections you can see Petersen's impact on the Senate race between Christian and Devolities. His coattails nearly provided the upset of the year. But again, that requires Petersen winning the primary statewide.

#4- Is there any difference between nominating Bulova or Oleszek for the Democrats? A major one, Bulova will be stronger in Fairfax County, especially Braddock District where his mother has served for over 20 years. Oleszek will be stronger in the City, since the County schools also run the schools in Fairfax City, and she is less antagonizing then the son of a County Supervisor.

#5- Will Kaplan get out of Mason's way or will he force a primary? If Kaplan gets out, it would be a major boost to Mason's resources. If he stays in, it hurts Mason, Petersen and Bulova. Petersen is hurt by Republican voters voting in that primary, instead of for him the same day. Bulova is hurt by Petersen's hurt, he is the more conservative primary candidate and is more likely to get Republicans voting for Petersen to also push his button (in the primary). Remember, you can only vote in one primary this year.

#6- Exactly how popular is Mason? He won big for 15 years as Mayor of Fairfax City, then was hammered in his 2003 re-election by almost a 2-1 margin. The issue was development, and if that was really the case, Mason should be ok in his comeback. If the issue was arrogance and the fact voters got tired of him, this will be uphill.

Outlook:

Republican Primary: Likely Mason

Democratic Primary: Likely Bulova

General Election matchups:

Bulova v. Kaplan- Likely Bulova (D)
Bulova v. Mason- Toss Up
Oleszek v. Kaplan- Likely Oleszek (D)
Oleszek v. Mason- Toss Up

21 Comments:

At 1:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The latter was correct. Mason lost because of arrogance and unpopularity. The winner of the D primary succeeds Chap.

 
At 6:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Will Prince Silverthorne seek this seat as an Independent, or will he continue to sit on his throne and cower from any political race that might require some effort and/or real approval from voters?

 
At 2:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi There, I just came across your website looking for a way to contact a Chap Petersen. Don't know if this is the same one, I doubt it. I'm looking for a young, somewhat short man that I met at a gay bar in New York City. Any chance this is the same Chap, and how can I reach him?

 
At 9:49 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anonymous - that's a good point. Gay people are bad, and Chap shouldn't talk to them.

Hopefully, once Bob McConnell is elected, he can use the massive power of the LG office to begin rounding them up and putting them in camps.

 
At 11:40 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Oh snap, anonymous(es). That exchange is the funniest thing I've read in a while.

 
At 1:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

well if McDonnell starts rounding up Gays than his own Governor candidate Kilgore will be the first one that has to be locked up.

 
At 2:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kilgore isn't gay. It's a common mistake. Here's why people get confused:

There are actually Kilgore triplets... not twins. Only two are in politics, Jerry and Terry. The third brother, Fairy sometimes is seen and people assume he is Jerry.

I wish Jerry would just tell everyone this and not let people be so confused. The problem is Jerry and Terry are ashamed of their brother.

 
At 5:05 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

The 37th is just annonymous comment central...

 
At 5:40 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

HAHAHAHAH I'm rolling on the floor.

 
At 5:52 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Word on the street is that the Olecek announcement went well. Lots of energy, lots of people. I'm still hard pressed to call this race though. Who the hell knows with these primaries?

 
At 7:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous one said...

Really, lord have mercy on Virginia, so let me get this right you have Terry would likes women, Jerry who is the switch hitter, and Ferry, who is strickly gay...okay it makes sense.

 
At 8:38 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Since this board is becoming a statewide sexuality debate, I opened a new article on the 37th tonight. :)

 
At 8:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

No, No No last annony. You are totally confused.

Terry is not the anti fairy. That's Larry. In fact when he get to Roanoke for an "fun" evening Terry becomes Terri and Jerry becomes Mary. Fairy goes as is.

Jerry is the mediator between Fairy and Larry. They don't get along.

I hope this clears things up.

 
At 1:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Is anyone going to answer my question about the commonwealth's most pathetic elected official, Scott "Davis-Devolities" Silverthorne?

 
At 1:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And yes I know JeanneMarie is Devolities-Davis... but Silverthorne is Davis-Devolities (hyphen's go in order of marriage and or soul selling)

 
At 3:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous one said...

Thats Scarrrry!!!!

 
At 1:09 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm looking for a young, somewhat short man that I met at a gay bar in New York City. Any chance this is the same Chap, and how can I reach him?

LOL

No, no, that must have been a kid from Fairfax named Ben Tribbet. Everyone knows he calls himself "Chap" when he's out crusing the leather bars.

 
At 5:56 PM, Anonymous Ben Tribbett said...

Actually my code name all depends on what color thong I am wearing. Helps me keep track. :)

 
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