Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

Keeping You up to date on the status of Virginia's 2005 Delegate races!

Friday, April 22, 2005

#2 of the Top 10

#2

52nd District, incumbent Jeff Frederick (R), parts of Prince William County

Outlook: Toss Up

Democrats got a major boost by successfully recruiting Prince William Supervisor Hilda Barg (D) into this race. This race has a remarkable contrast of the "old guard" of Prince William politics, with the 71 year old Barg, a Supervisor for 18 years and the new very conservative leadership taking over the county, with the 29 year old Frederick. In a lot of ways this race would be similar to a battle between Prince William titans Sen. Chuck Colgan (D) and Del. Bob Marshall (R), both politically, and in the generation contrast.

So can grandma Barg bring home the renegade Frederick? Signals are mixed:

Favoring Barg: Experience. Strong vote totals in Supervisor elections. Strong financial support from the Democratic Establishment. District went for Warner and Kerry. Frederick had an event with Tom Delay this week- Bad timing!

Favoring Frederick: He can knock on a lot more doors. Potential Seniority in House. Committed base that helped him defeat the incumbent in a primary in 03. Democratic performance in Prince William is much lower in state election years. Warner carried in 01, but so did Kilgore. Kaine won it also, but by only about 150 votes.

Barg's Supervisor District is about 60% of this district. Right now we're calling this a tossup, which Barg would win if the election were held today. It must be noted however, Frederick's 03 totals were stronger than other Republicans who have run there- he is not the pushover many Democrats think he is. If Kilgore gets 50% here (including Potts) Frederick will probably survive. If Kilgore wins here with less than 50% (most likely outcome), or if Kaine wins here, then Hilda Barg is a Delegate.

24 Comments:

At 2:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You are such a Republican shill! Any real Independent analysis would have Hilda Barg as the clear favorite. Why don't you disclose your bias for everyone to see.

Amy

 
At 4:03 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

With annonymous bloggers, you never know. it's interesting how perspective changes amongst different crowds. For example, some people are saying there are only really 3 or 4 competitive races this year. I'd tend to agree, although I'd pick a few different races than our friend not larry sabato.

 
At 6:04 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Hello!? Wahoo- I only rated 4 as tossups. The rest are top 10, but that doesn't mean they will even be close in the end!

Also, I have some inside information I may let slip as things move along in the next few weeks. That may help explain why some things are rated the way they are.

Friends of any current candidates: Please contact us with any information you have, gossip, speculation or otherwise. We are not above publishing anything! Remember: Candidates run better when they have a couple of annonymous knifes in the back!

 
At 7:45 PM, Anonymous Paul said...

HA HA HA. Nice. I swear I can count. I think...

 
At 7:48 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

silence. the boths of you.

 
At 1:17 PM, Blogger Danny said...

Well, I see this race as clearly leaning left, I ran the 2001 campaign of Davon Gray and he still managed over 40% against the moderate and extremely well finianced Rollison.If I remember correctly even McEachin won this seat in 2001, and with a candidate such as Frederick that is that far right, and a more moderate Barg, a women with whom I personally do not like but the Governor picked her, this should be an easy leans left.

 
At 8:37 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Danny- What don't you like about Barg? Do other Democrats feel the same way. How will that impact this race?

 
At 12:18 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Warner's thrown his lots in with Barg. This is the only race that he appeared at the announcement for(although he's promised to appear at a Marsden and Werkheiser event). But I'm still a bit skeptical. Frederick is young. And I think people are attracted to that. They're hesitant to give a race to an older person. Young equates with "reform" for most people. Ehhh - who knows though.

 
At 3:08 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

LoL Wahoo!!! Where did you hear that? Warner fired Marsden. Now he's going to endorse him?

 
At 10:49 AM, Anonymous Paul said...

Hmmm - perhaps I got mixed up...I know Warner's doing some House race appearances though.

 
At 12:35 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Wahoo- are you also Dan?

 
At 4:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Actually, this was my old stopping grounds for about 10 years. Let me throw in my two cents.

This is one of those districts that ideologically can go either way.

You would expect this to be an extremely conservative area -- strong military presence, large religious communities, and a number of professions locating here to escape the more urban areas in which they work.

However, the redistricting mapped in less wealthy socioeconomic groups. And, over the last decade people from this region find themselves identifying more with people from Fairfax.

The net effect is that this district personality wise is probably moderate Republican. In many ways, the profile of the district mirrored Jack Rollison.

The implication is that this is almost, but not quite, a swing district. The populace is moderate and the party activists (both Democrats and Republicans) tend to be very ideological.

I've met Hilda Barg on a number of occassions. I found her nice -- a real sweatheart. True story: during one of her races, she went to an election stop and found a few teenagers (I want to say 3 or 5) working on their high school civics project (local schools used to encourage students to get involved; they still may). One student was campaigning for her, the rest her opponent. After talking to them for a few minutes she left and came back with some food. She bought all of them lunch.

So why the concern among some, the animosity from others?

To be polite about it, there are sharper politicians in the area. Every once in a while Hilda makes promises that are impossible to keep.

I have not been in that area for a few years, so she might have toned this down. But I do remember people rolling their eyes about something she either promised or tried to do on a few occassions.

So, while her experience and name recognition helps her some in her district, it also hinders her somewhat at the same time. It is not clear cut either way.

 
At 11:21 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

HA!!! I can never remember which name I'm posting under. They're all fake, much like your parents probably didn't name you "Not" and our friend the Pope probably didn't drop by yesterday. The Wahoo part is real though! Notice how I tried to play it off above. God I'm smooth. Let's go with Wahoo Dan.

 
At 11:25 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Anonymous: As to your comments - What do you think about Matt Harrison being forced out of the race? It seemed to me like he raised a decent amount of money ($30k) before the governor told him to take a hike. Obviously Hilda's a stronger candidate, but I was still a bit surprised to see this strong armed tactic used against someone who was raising money pretty well. Hilda didn't even file on January 15th (at least I don't think).

 
At 1:34 AM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Harrison's money was all in kinds or from him. It wasn't going that well..... he's another one from the Werkheiser/Englin crowd that think because they are young that they have the talents of a Steve Shannon. I could be wrong, but I think all 3 are a cut below Shannon.

 
At 3:05 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

Shannon/Englin/Werkheiser/Batman are apples, oranges, pears, and superheroes. Hard to compare them.

 
At 4:49 PM, Blogger LiebJef said...

I think Matt Harrison would have been a great candidate. I only met him once but he seemed like a really good guy and he started campaigning very early. I also think that it would be great for the democrats to have a group like Shannon, Werkheiser, and Englin together down in Richmond... they are all young and great democrats.

 
At 11:51 PM, Blogger Shaula Evans said...

Frederick is young. And I think people are attracted to that. They're hesitant to give a race to an older person. Young equates with "reform" for most people.

wahoo dan, I have to disagree with you, or at least how your comments apply to Frederick.

Did you see the series the WaPo ran on Frederick and Shannon as freshmen delegates during the 2004 session? Frederick is a GOP party-line man, in this case, aligned with the most extremist elements in the Republican party, including the social extremists and rabid anti-taxers.

Now, it makes sense if his campaign tries to *position* him as the youthful, energetic candidate (in the "gild a turd" sense)...but in reality, he is the GOP lacky/whippersnapper running against a candidate with greater experience/expertise.

Knocking off incumbents isn't easy work, but I'd say, this is Barg's race to lose. And I am extremely impressed with her first fundraising report. Let's just hope, as NLS has written, that she chooses to invest her money wisesly in the race.

 
At 1:08 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Barg's Supervisor District is about 60% of this district.

Not correct. Barg only has about 35% of this district.

 
At 2:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm an Independent/lean Democrat in Frederick's district.
In response to Shaula who says:
Did you see the series the WaPo ran on Frederick and Shannon as freshmen delegates during the 2004 session? Frederick is a GOP party-line man, in this case, aligned with the most extremist elements in the Republican party, including the social extremists and rabid anti-taxers.
Frederick has worked extremely hard for his district since he's been in office. I would hardly call his concern for smart growth and giving property tax relief to his constituents "extremist". I don't happen to agree with him on every issue, but he knows how I feel and always responds when I email him.
I also think that your qualification of him as a "GOP lacky" is untrue. Don't underestimate Frederick--he is energetic and works extremely hard for his district and will continue to do so in his bid for re-election. And why in the world would I want to send a 71 year old woman to represent my interests in Richmond? A woman who allows junk cars to clutter the yards of my neighbors and does nothing about it, a woman who wants the County to foot the bill for an illegal alien center. She can't even do her job as Supervisor--let alone be qualified for higher office.

 
At 4:08 PM, Anonymous Independant lean/republican said...

Dear Independant lean/democrat:

I'm an independent lean/Republican and I'd like to endorse Bernie Sanders for President in 2008. In fact, I'd like to endorse Bernie as President for Life. Because there's nothing radical about socialism.

 
At 5:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What's the Governor going to do when Hilda looses all motivation to be in the middle of a campaign come August or September. Frederick is going to out walk her, out campaign her and out debate her.

She's not going to have any motivation - she already has a job, that she loves, to fall back on (Supervisor).

Frederick has got the fight, drive and will to keep his seat. This one is a no brainer - goes back to Frederick. Only thing that would have made it interesting is if the Gov. would have convinced John Jenkins to run against Lingamfelter in the 31st. Bets could have been placed on who would have imploded first – John or Hilda!

 
At 6:05 PM, Blogger Danny said...

Sorry NLS,

Sorry I got caught up on some business, the reason that I do not like Barg is because in all the races that I personally worked in that area, she was of no help. Time and again, the Democratic campaigns in that area needed her help and she would not even return phone calls. Also I as the former Vice President of the Virginia College Democrats I endorsed Matt over Hilda. I volunteered with Matt for the Taylor race in the district in 2003, and he was a great guy and would have whooped up on Frederick, however Barg is pretty old and I belive the district to be pretty young. I think that age contrast will not be a good thing for her, hopefully her name rec in Woodbridge will help her to overcome Fredericks energy and youth. And there is only one Dannythe357.

 
At 5:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am actually stunned that Hilda decided to make this run. She likes being a big fish in a little pond. The GA offers her nothing. (Note that the homeless shelter is named after her - and it was named as such while she was a sitting supervisor in the district in which it is located.)

People in Hilda's district love her because she promises them the world - and for her friends, she delivers. To everyone else, forget about it.

She's a nice lady, but not the sharpest tool in the shed.

Innovative ideas are not her forte. Note, that she still has no website for her campaign for delegate. She has also never had a functioning website in all the years she has been a supervisor. In contrast, check out the website of savvy Maureen Caddigan, a supervisor who district abuts Hilda's and who is just a wee bit younger than Hilda. No contest.

On the other hand, I can't bear that Jeff Frederick either... so it's a good thing I don't live in this district.

 

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