Virginia House of Delegates 2005 Elections

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Friday, April 22, 2005

#1 of the Top 10

#1

87th District, incumbent Paula Miller (D), parts of Norfolk City

Outlook: Toss Up

Miller faces a likely rematch with Michael Ball (R), who she defeated by 97 votes in a December special election. A rematch offers many dynamics which make this currently the state's closest race. The November Election will have much larger turnout and the district should give a edge to Republican Jerry Kilgore. Also a split in the white/black communities within the Democratic Party in the Treasurer's race in Norfolk will make Miller's coalition more challenging to hold together... Will Paula support the black Democratic nominee, or will she support the white independent/incumbent/former Virginia House Speaker Tom Moss? Moss could make this decision easier by running as an clear Independent, but he claims to stay a Democrat and only be running as an Independent because he could not win the D nomination. In short this race could be explosive. All the special election shows is that Paula Miller begins with a 97 vote lead, with probably 10,000 votes waiting to report until November. If Ball chooses not to run, then this race would revert to a "Lean Democratic" outlook, that's the scenario where Miller's incumbency would really help.

11 Comments:

At 2:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like a shitty #1. No one even wants to talk about it.

 
At 6:30 PM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

The problem is this:

Both candidates are REALLY NICE PEOPLE. Nobody wants to take shots at them.

Like I said, the GOP guy went to Paula Miller's victory party and gave a concession speech thanking her for the race.

 
At 8:36 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

Wahoo, I'm with you on the candidates- I thought throwing the Moss thing in might get some discussion, but I guess not.

 
At 1:31 AM, Anonymous NorfolkGOP said...

I heard Paula Miller has green eyes, and the bright blue is a contact lense thing. Any one know fo' sho?

 
At 10:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I have to disagree with your handicapping of this one, though you make sound points on the Treasurer's race being a factor. The fact is that Ball is not going to get the kind of support from Republicans that he did when it was an open seat. Recall that Grover Norquist came out after Ball's defeat and blasted him for not being anti-tax enough. Also, Miller's win was a big feather in the governor's cap going into the winter session, so I'd expect some heavy hitting support from One Virginia PAC to retain the seat. I'm a bit surprised that you find this to be the #1 race in Virginia in 2005.

 
At 11:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ball went to Miller's victory party because that's where the camera's were. I'd say it was probably more of a practical consideration than sentimental. It also appeared that he'd been hitting the sauce a little hard, as he was observed taking a handful of saucy meatballs from her buffet table and jamming them in his pocket on the way out the door...

 
At 11:53 AM, Anonymous Wahoo Dan said...

HAHAHAHA

Awesome. I knew it was only a matter of time until someone would jump in and say something obnoxious.

Don't forget about Leadership for Virginia, people. They gave Miller 50k last year.

norfolkgop: I dunno - wasn't she a news anchor for a while? Let's go to the video tape...

 
At 3:53 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I don't even know what to say about the meatball comment.

 
At 9:39 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The meatball thing was true and so was the "sauced" part.

I also heard that those were "some damn good meatballs".

 
At 5:18 PM, Blogger Not Larry Sabato said...

I prefer meatballs without pocket lint mixed in

 
At 8:51 PM, Anonymous Been There Done That In Norfolk said...

I think this is rightly the #1 race in Virginia. I mean look at it Miller only one by 97 votes that is nothing. The one thing everyone has to remeber about this race this time around is that the it is not going to be the only race in town. Both camps are not going to find themseleves with the same kind of $$$ they had for the special election. Look at either one of their finance reports from the special election, they both had armies of paid volunteers knocking on doors trying to get the vote out. This one is going to come down the the wire again. Miller being the incumbent will have more money than Ball. However in a general election with a higher turnout means more republican voters. Ball could take this seat from her.

 

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